← Whale Watch

manuelarias

Predicting since May 2026215 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Down $30K on Politics markets since May 2026.

Right now: $32K riding on Colombia Presidential Election Runoff: Most votes from Bogotá.

Biggest hit: +$2.7K on Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?FinanceYes$5564¢17¢-$40
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?PoliticsYes$1060¢64¢+$1
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?PoliticsYes$1014¢2.1¢-$9
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?World CupYesResolved$312¢0.0¢-$3
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?World CupYesResolved$516¢0.0¢-$5
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?World CupYesResolved$719¢0.0¢-$7
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?World CupYesResolved$324¢0.0¢-$3
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?World CupNoResolved$1531¢0.0¢-$15
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ETCryptoUpResolved$24.0¢0.0¢-$2
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ETCryptoUpResolved$545¢0.0¢-$5
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?World CupYesResolved$1059¢0.0¢-$10
Will Ghana win on 2026-07-03?World CupYesResolved$311¢0.0¢-$3
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?World CupYesResolved$859¢0.0¢-$8
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$1536¢0.0¢-$15
Will France win on 2026-06-30?World CupNoResolved$323¢0.0¢-$3
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?World CupNoResolved$329¢0.0¢-$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ETCryptoDownResolved$217¢0.0¢-$2
France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceWorld CupFranceResolved$534¢0.0¢-$5
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupNoResolved$542¢0.0¢-$5
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?World CupYesResolved$1513¢0.0¢-$15
Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?World CupYesResolved$1048¢0.0¢-$10
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?World CupYesResolved$46.5¢0.0¢-$4
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?World CupNoResolved$221¢0.0¢-$2
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?World CupYesResolved$2821¢0.0¢-$28
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ETCryptoUpResolved$411¢0.0¢-$4
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ETCryptoUpResolved$69.7¢0.0¢-$6
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?World CupYesResolved$214¢0.0¢-$2
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?World CupYesResolved$61.4¢0.0¢-$6
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?World CupYesResolved$2050¢0.0¢-$20
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ETCryptoUpResolved$1223¢0.0¢-$12
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$80.6¢0.0¢-$8
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ETCryptoUpResolved$171.0¢0.0¢-$17
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?World CupYesResolved$222¢0.0¢-$2
Will France win on 2026-07-14?World CupYesResolved$194.5¢0.0¢-$19
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?World CupYesResolved$932¢0.0¢-$9
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw?World CupYesResolved$29.0¢0.0¢-$2
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?World CupNoResolved$524¢0.0¢-$5
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?World CupYesResolved$20.1¢0.0¢-$2
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?World CupYesResolved$70.2¢0.0¢-$7
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?World CupYesResolved$520¢0.0¢-$5
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ETCryptoUpResolved$26.0¢0.0¢-$2
Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?PoliticsYesResolved$50126¢0.0¢-$501
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ETCryptoDownResolved$315¢0.0¢-$3
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?World CupNoResolved$843¢0.0¢-$8
Will England win on 2026-07-18?World CupNoResolved$54.6¢0.0¢-$5
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?World CupYesResolved$711¢0.0¢-$7
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+?PoliticsYesResolved$30015¢0.0¢-$300
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ETCryptoUpResolved$616¢0.0¢-$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ETCryptoDownResolved$24.2¢0.0¢-$2
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?World CupNoResolved$512¢0.0¢-$5
Will Canada win on 2026-07-04?World CupYesResolved$37.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?World CupYesResolved$29.0¢0.0¢-$2
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ETCryptoUpResolved$215¢0.0¢-$2
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ETCryptoDownResolved$226¢0.0¢-$2
Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw?World CupYesResolved$22.2¢0.0¢-$2
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?World CupYesResolved$213¢0.0¢-$2
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?World CupYesResolved$554¢0.0¢-$5
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ETCryptoUpResolved$1037¢0.0¢-$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ETCryptoUpResolved$121¢0.0¢-$1
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?World CupNoResolved$1540¢0.0¢-$15
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?World CupNoResolved$319¢0.0¢-$3
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?World CupYesResolved$323¢0.0¢-$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ETCryptoUpResolved$3016¢0.0¢-$30
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?World CupYesResolved$27.0¢0.0¢-$2
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?World CupYesResolved$811¢0.0¢-$8
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw?World CupYesResolved$317¢0.0¢-$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ETCryptoDownResolved$57.0¢0.0¢-$5
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ETCryptoDownResolved$241¢0.0¢-$2
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?World CupYesResolved$561¢0.0¢-$5
Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?World CupYesResolved$1021¢0.0¢-$10
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceWorld CupArgentinaResolved$3012¢0.0¢-$30
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ETCryptoDownResolved$319¢0.0¢-$3
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?World CupYesResolved$1025¢0.0¢-$10
Will England win on 2026-07-15?World CupYesResolved$1550¢0.0¢-$15
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ETCryptoUpResolved$635¢0.0¢-$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ETCryptoDownResolved$22.0¢0.0¢-$2
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ETCryptoDownResolved$230¢0.0¢-$2
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$5018¢0.0¢-$50
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?World CupYesResolved$427¢0.0¢-$4
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?World CupYesResolved$524¢0.0¢-$5
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?World CupYesResolved$366¢0.0¢-$3
France vs. England: Team to WinWorld CupFranceResolved$131.8¢0.0¢-$13
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?World CupYesResolved$2043¢0.0¢-$20
Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?World CupYesResolved$223¢0.0¢-$2
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?World CupYesResolved$158¢0.0¢-$1
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ETCryptoDownResolved$15.0¢0.0¢-$1
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?World CupYesResolved$211¢0.0¢-$2
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?PoliticsYesResolved$32K32¢0.0¢-$32K
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ETCryptoUpResolved$720¢0.0¢-$7
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?World CupYesResolved$516¢0.0¢-$5
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ETCryptoDownResolved$22.0¢0.0¢-$2
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ETCryptoDownResolved$218¢0.0¢-$2
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ETCryptoUpResolved$320¢0.0¢-$3
Will France win on 2026-06-22?World CupNoResolved$310¢0.0¢-$3
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?PoliticsYesResolved$35418¢0.0¢-$354
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?World CupYesResolved$7044¢0.0¢-$70
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ETCryptoDownResolved$52.0¢0.0¢-$5
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ETCryptoUpResolved$231¢0.0¢-$2
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?World CupYesResolved$320¢0.0¢-$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ETCryptoUpResolved$544¢0.0¢-$5

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics-$30K
World Cup+$374
Finance-$40
Crypto-$38
Tennis-$2
Soccer (other)+$1
Biggest hit
+$2.7K
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Toughest beat
-$37
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET

Recent moves

  • Bought Yes · Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$518h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$1518h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$1021h ago
  • Cashed out Yes · Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$01d ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$162d ago
  • Cashed out Yes · Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-07-23?$262d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$212d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$522d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$102d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-07-23?$102d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-07-23?$152d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$512d ago