 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $500 | 88¢ | 83¢ | -$29 |
| Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?Mentions | No | $290 | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$42 |
 Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics | No | $249 | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$6 |
 Will Gavin Solomon advance from the AK-AL primary election?Politics | No | $221 | 91¢ | 99¢ | +$20 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics | No | $150 | 85¢ | 81¢ | -$7 |
 Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Politics | No | $104 | 85¢ | 93¢ | +$10 |
 Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?Politics | Yes | $105 | 86¢ | 91¢ | +$7 |
 Megaquake by July 31?Weather | No | $100 | 89¢ | 98¢ | +$10 |
| Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?Tech | No | $100 | 92¢ | 99¢ | +$8 |
 Will Carnita Atwater win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?Politics | No | $100 | 89¢ | 94¢ | +$5 |
 Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?Politics | Yes | $105 | 86¢ | 84¢ | -$3 |
 Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 23, 2026?Politics | No | $100 | 96¢ | 98¢ | +$2 |
 No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $104 | 91¢ | 88¢ | -$3 |
 Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?Politics | No | $100 | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
| Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Politics | Yes | $100 | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 |
| Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?Politics | No | $99 | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$1 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | No | $108 | 89¢ | 83¢ | -$8 |
 Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Politics | No | $101 | 82¢ | 80¢ | -$3 |
 Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?Politics | Yes | $92 | 89¢ | 94¢ | +$5 |
 Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10?Politics | No | $90 | 90¢ | 96¢ | +$5 |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Economy | Yes | $98 | 79¢ | 77¢ | -$3 |
| Will Core PCE YoY be 3.5% in June?Economy | No | $81 | 87¢ | 95¢ | +$8 |
 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $85 | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$3 |
 Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?Politics | Yes | $73 | 91¢ | 98¢ | +$6 |
 Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Politics | No | $104 | 86¢ | 65¢ | -$26 |
 Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Politics | No | $110 | 91¢ | 65¢ | -$32 |
 Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?Politics | Yes | $73 | 92¢ | 96¢ | +$3 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 26, 2026?Politics | No | $90 | 89¢ | 75¢ | -$14 |
 Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?Politics | No | $66 | 79¢ | 91¢ | +$10 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?Tech | No | $65 | 88¢ | 99¢ | +$8 |
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat?Politics | Yes | $60 | 82¢ | 89¢ | +$5 |
 Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?Politics | Yes | $64 | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$0 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Politics | No | $103 | 97¢ | 57¢ | -$42 |
 Will Fred Wellman be the MO-02 Democratic nominee?Politics | Yes | $52 | 86¢ | 94¢ | +$5 |
 Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Politics | No | $61 | 84¢ | 74¢ | -$7 |
| Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?Weather | No | $50 | 96¢ | 96¢ | -$0 |
 Will Mike Bouchard be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?Politics | Yes | $40 | 91¢ | 98¢ | +$3 |
 Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?Politics | No | $37 | 78¢ | 80¢ | +$1 |
 Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?Economy | Yes | $39 | 69¢ | 66¢ | -$2 |
 Netanyahu out by July 31?Politics | No | $34 | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
 Databricks IPO before 2027?Tech | No | $30 | 80¢ | 91¢ | +$4 |
 Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?Politics | Yes | $30 | 84¢ | 91¢ | +$3 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics | No | $30 | 93¢ | 99¢ | +$2 |
 Will Devin Pooré advance to the general election for WA-04?Politics | No | $29 | 89¢ | 95¢ | +$2 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Politics | No | $30 | 87¢ | 93¢ | +$2 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?Politics | No | $30 | 88¢ | 93¢ | +$2 |
 Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?Politics | No | $30 | 85¢ | 87¢ | +$1 |
 Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?Politics | Yes | $30 | 90¢ | 94¢ | +$1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?Politics | Yes | $30 | 81¢ | 84¢ | +$1 |
 Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics | No | $30 | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$1 |
 Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $29 | 94¢ | 99¢ | +$2 |
 Will the Democratic Party win the MN-02 House seat?Politics | Yes | $30 | 87¢ | 90¢ | +$1 |
| Will the Republican Party win the SC-02 House seat?Politics | Yes | $30 | 82¢ | 84¢ | +$1 |
 Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics | No | $28 | 87¢ | 94¢ | +$2 |
| Will the Republican Party win the TX-31 House seat?Politics | Yes | $29 | 84¢ | 86¢ | +$1 |
 China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Politics | No | $29 | 91¢ | 93¢ | +$1 |
 Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics | Yes | $30 | 79¢ | 78¢ | -$0 |
 Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?Politics | Yes | $28 | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$1 |
 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics | No | $27 | 54¢ | 56¢ | +$1 |
 US x Cuba economic deal by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $25 | 90¢ | 98¢ | +$2 |
| Will there be exactly 2 North Korea tests in July 2026?Politics | No | $30 | 80¢ | 73¢ | -$3 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?Politics | No | $25 | 87¢ | 89¢ | +$0 |
 Peru Presidential Election Invalidated?Politics | No | $24 | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
 Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?Politics | No | $24 | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Politics | Yes | $27 | 15¢ | 13¢ | -$4 |
 Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Politics | Yes | $20 | 78¢ | 84¢ | +$1 |
 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?Politics | No | $19 | 83¢ | 89¢ | +$1 |
 US recession by end of 2026?Economy | No | $20 | 86¢ | 88¢ | +$0 |
 Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $19 | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
 Will Matt Little be the Democratic nominee for MN-02?Politics | Yes | $19 | 79¢ | 78¢ | -$0 |
| Will voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Politics | No | $18 | 85¢ | 87¢ | +$0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-05 House seat?Politics | Yes | $17 | 85¢ | 89¢ | +$1 |
 FDA approves Retatrutide this year?Tech | No | $15 | 87¢ | 98¢ | +$2 |
 OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech | No | $17 | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$0 |
 New COVID variant of concern before 2027?Politics | No | $16 | 82¢ | 88¢ | +$1 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the OH-13 House seat?Politics | Yes | $15 | 86¢ | 92¢ | +$1 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat?Politics | Yes | $15 | 86¢ | 91¢ | +$1 |
 No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $15 | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$0 |
 Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?Economy | No | $15 | 86¢ | 88¢ | +$0 |
 Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?Politics | No | $15 | 90¢ | 89¢ | -$0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NV-04 House seat?Politics | Yes | $15 | 88¢ | 89¢ | +$0 |
 China x Japan military clash before 2027?Politics | No | $14 | 88¢ | 93¢ | +$1 |
 SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? Politics | No | $15 | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$0 |
 Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Politics | Yes | $15 | 44¢ | 41¢ | -$1 |
 Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?Politics | Yes | $13 | 99¢ | 97¢ | -$0 |
| Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Politics | Yes | $11 | 81¢ | 95¢ | +$2 |
 Will Maria Brewer be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee?Politics | No | $11 | 84¢ | 94¢ | +$1 |
 Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in July?Politics | Yes | $30 | 82¢ | 33¢ | -$18 |
 Anduril IPO before 2027?Tech | No | $11 | 89¢ | 94¢ | +$0 |
 Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Politics | No | $10 | 84¢ | 89¢ | +$1 |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Politics | No | $10 | 87¢ | 94¢ | +$1 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics | Yes | $10 | 83¢ | 86¢ | +$0 |
 Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?Politics | Yes | $10 | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$0 |
 Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?Tech | No | $10 | 80¢ | 80¢ | -$0 |
 Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?Politics | Yes | $8 | 82¢ | 92¢ | +$1 |
 Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics | No | $8 | 66¢ | 66¢ | -$0 |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $6 | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$0 |
 Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?Tech | No | $6 | 90¢ | 91¢ | +$0 |
 Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics | No | $6 | 85¢ | 88¢ | +$0 |
 Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?Tech | No | $6 | 86¢ | 86¢ | -$0 |
Cashed out Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$10515h ago