 Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?Politics | Yes | $609 | 93¢ | 98¢ | +$34 |
 Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?Politics | No | $159 | 65¢ | 96¢ | +$77 |
| Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?Politics | No | $215 | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$7 |
 Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?Politics | No | $156 | 92¢ | 96¢ | +$7 |
 U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics | No | $111 | 69¢ | 79¢ | +$15 |
| Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?Mentions | No | $120 | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$5 |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?Politics | Yes | $63 | 25¢ | 48¢ | +$57 |
 Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics | No | $107 | 84¢ | 90¢ | +$7 |
 Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $72 | 57¢ | 84¢ | +$34 |
 Iran nuclear test before 2027?Politics | No | $96 | 85¢ | 93¢ | +$9 |
 Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $34 | 31¢ | 74¢ | +$48 |
 Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics | No | $50 | 38¢ | 63¢ | +$31 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $72 | 78¢ | 83¢ | +$4 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: ObamaPolitics | Nothing | $67 | 81¢ | 92¢ | +$9 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?Politics | No | $53 | 61¢ | 86¢ | +$22 |
 FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?Tech | Yes | $101 | 55¢ | 39¢ | -$30 |
 Will Trump nationalize elections?Politics | No | $57 | 67¢ | 81¢ | +$11 |
 Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?Politics | No | $63 | 89¢ | 93¢ | +$3 |
 Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?NFL | Yes | $47 | 38¢ | 51¢ | +$17 |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $59 | 87¢ | 91¢ | +$2 |
 NATO dissolves before 2027?Politics | No | $57 | 92¢ | 97¢ | +$3 |
| Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $22 | 22¢ | 62¢ | +$38 |
 Blue wave in 2026?Politics | Yes | $57 | 72¢ | 75¢ | +$3 |
 US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?Politics | No | $54 | 91¢ | 98¢ | +$4 |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?Politics | No | $54 | 93¢ | 99¢ | +$3 |
 Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?Politics | No | $36 | 54¢ | 84¢ | +$20 |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T?Politics | Yes | $62 | 22¢ | 19¢ | -$7 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027?Politics | No | $49 | 83¢ | 87¢ | +$3 |
 China x Japan military clash before 2027?Politics | No | $49 | 88¢ | 93¢ | +$2 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?Politics | No | $43 | 77¢ | 87¢ | +$5 |
 Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $64 | 62¢ | 47¢ | -$16 |
 Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?Politics | No | $43 | 75¢ | 84¢ | +$5 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?Politics | No | $40 | 78¢ | 92¢ | +$7 |
 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy | Yes | $19 | 35¢ | 85¢ | +$28 |
 Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $27 | 4.8¢ | 8.3¢ | +$20 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?Politics | No | $41 | 75¢ | 84¢ | +$5 |
 Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?Politics | No | $46 | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$0 |
 Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?Politics | No | $45 | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$0 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $44 | 88¢ | 89¢ | +$0 |
| Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $29 | 55¢ | 82¢ | +$14 |
 Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?Politics | No | $33 | 56¢ | 72¢ | +$9 |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $28 | 49¢ | 72¢ | +$12 |
| Will there be four or more UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Other | No | $34 | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$6 |
 Human moon landing in 2026?Tech | No | $37 | 92¢ | 98¢ | +$3 |
| Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?Politics | No | $37 | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
 Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?Politics | No | $37 | 92¢ | 97¢ | +$2 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Politics | Yes | $22 | 41¢ | 69¢ | +$15 |
 Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?Politics | No | $36 | 89¢ | 94¢ | +$2 |
 OPEC dissolves in 2026?Politics | No | $36 | 91¢ | 94¢ | +$1 |
 Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?Politics | No | $36 | 91¢ | 93¢ | +$1 |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $31 | 79¢ | 91¢ | +$5 |
 US recession by end of 2026?Economy | No | $30 | 73¢ | 88¢ | +$6 |
 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?Politics | No | $30 | 75¢ | 88¢ | +$5 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?Politics | No | $30 | 74¢ | 88¢ | +$6 |
 OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech | No | $31 | 80¢ | 90¢ | +$4 |
 Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Economy | Yes | $30 | 55¢ | 64¢ | +$5 |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 700B and 800B?Politics | Yes | $24 | 17¢ | 25¢ | +$11 |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Politics | No | $26 | 73¢ | 94¢ | +$7 |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?Politics | No | $30 | 80¢ | 90¢ | +$4 |
 Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics | No | $30 | 82¢ | 93¢ | +$4 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $29 | 77¢ | 89¢ | +$4 |
 Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Politics | No | $33 | 88¢ | 87¢ | -$0 |
 Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Politics | No | $28 | 71¢ | 80¢ | +$3 |
 Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.6% and 2.0%?Politics | Yes | $14 | 3.8¢ | 8.2¢ | +$17 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics | No | $28 | 83¢ | 92¢ | +$3 |
 Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?Politics | Yes | $46 | 60¢ | 40¢ | -$15 |
 Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027?Politics | No | $26 | 78¢ | 91¢ | +$4 |
| Will there be between 25 and 27 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?Politics | Yes | $14 | 15¢ | 31¢ | +$15 |
 OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?Tech | Yes | $22 | 55¢ | 74¢ | +$7 |
 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics | No | $28 | 82¢ | 87¢ | +$2 |
 X banned in any European country by December 31?Politics | No | $17 | 50¢ | 84¢ | +$12 |
 Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics | No | $26 | 85¢ | 97¢ | +$4 |
 US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $25 | 84¢ | 97¢ | +$4 |
 Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $26 | 88¢ | 96¢ | +$3 |
 Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027?Crypto | No | $20 | 45¢ | 66¢ | +$9 |
 Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics | No | $26 | 86¢ | 96¢ | +$3 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?Politics | No | $28 | 95¢ | 95¢ | +$0 |
 Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Politics | No | $22 | 53¢ | 69¢ | +$6 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?Politics | Yes | $25 | 85¢ | 94¢ | +$3 |
 Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?Politics | No | $21 | 72¢ | 93¢ | +$6 |
 Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $21 | 60¢ | 79¢ | +$6 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 26, 2026?Politics | Yes | $35 | 87¢ | 67¢ | -$8 |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics | No | $21 | 34¢ | 44¢ | +$6 |
 US strike on Mexico by December 31?Politics | No | $21 | 71¢ | 88¢ | +$5 |
| Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?Politics | Yes | $14 | 22¢ | 42¢ | +$12 |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $20 | 68¢ | 90¢ | +$6 |
 Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics | No | $23 | 84¢ | 95¢ | +$3 |
 Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $20 | 66¢ | 85¢ | +$6 |
 Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?Politics | No | $48 | 41¢ | 21¢ | -$23 |
 Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?Politics | No | $19 | 60¢ | 82¢ | +$7 |
| Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?Politics | Yes | $24 | 20¢ | 21¢ | +$1 |
 Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Politics | No | $20 | 78¢ | 98¢ | +$5 |
| Will there be between 31 and 33 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?Politics | Yes | $13 | 20¢ | 38¢ | +$12 |
| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Other | Yes | $16 | 55¢ | 87¢ | +$9 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?Politics | No | $23 | 88¢ | 96¢ | +$2 |
 Xi Jinping out before 2027?Politics | No | $24 | 93¢ | 95¢ | +$1 |
 Don Lemon sentenced to prison?Politics | No | $25 | 85¢ | 85¢ | +$0 |
 Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026?Politics | Yes | $12 | 3.8¢ | 8.0¢ | +$13 |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics | Yes | $22 | 57¢ | 63¢ | +$2 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 27, 2026?Politics | Yes | $24 | 87¢ | 87¢ | +$0 |
Sold Yes · US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?$817s ago
Bought Yes · NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$427m ago
Sold Yes · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$339m ago