 Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Tech | No | $136 | 38¢ | 69¢ | +$114 |
 Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?Politics | No | $159 | 65¢ | 97¢ | +$78 |
 Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?Politics | No | $156 | 92¢ | 99¢ | +$11 |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Tech | No | $115 | 69¢ | 84¢ | +$23 |
 U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics | No | $111 | 69¢ | 85¢ | +$26 |
 Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?Tech | No | $137 | 94¢ | 94¢ | -$0 |
 Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $131 | 95¢ | 95¢ | -$1 |
 Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31?Politics | Yes | $100 | 75¢ | 92¢ | +$23 |
 Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $75 | 57¢ | 84¢ | +$35 |
 Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics | No | $97 | 84¢ | 94¢ | +$12 |
 U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027?Politics | No | $103 | 84¢ | 88¢ | +$5 |
 Iran nuclear test before 2027?Politics | No | $96 | 85¢ | 95¢ | +$12 |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?Politics | Yes | $63 | 25¢ | 43¢ | +$43 |
 Will Trump nationalize elections?Politics | No | $72 | 69¢ | 93¢ | +$25 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?Politics | No | $70 | 64¢ | 86¢ | +$23 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $106 | 69¢ | 58¢ | -$16 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech | No | $90 | 90¢ | 87¢ | -$3 |
 Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $34 | 31¢ | 72¢ | +$45 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: ObamaPolitics | Nothing | $67 | 81¢ | 94¢ | +$10 |
 Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026?Soccer (other) | No | $75 | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$0 |
 Blue wave in 2026?Politics | Yes | $65 | 72¢ | 80¢ | +$6 |
 Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?Politics | No | $50 | 60¢ | 82¢ | +$18 |
| Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $19 | 22¢ | 79¢ | +$49 |
 Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?Politics | No | $63 | 89¢ | 95¢ | +$4 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027?Politics | No | $57 | 77¢ | 88¢ | +$8 |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $59 | 87¢ | 95¢ | +$5 |
 Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech | No | $86 | 50¢ | 37¢ | -$23 |
 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?Politics | No | $57 | 79¢ | 85¢ | +$4 |
 NATO dissolves before 2027?Politics | No | $57 | 92¢ | 98¢ | +$4 |
 Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics | No | $35 | 49¢ | 84¢ | +$25 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?Tech | No | $59 | 91¢ | 93¢ | +$1 |
 Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $57 | 92¢ | 95¢ | +$2 |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?Politics | No | $54 | 93¢ | 99¢ | +$3 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Africa" before 2027?Politics | No | $54 | 83¢ | 88¢ | +$3 |
 US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics | No | $47 | 69¢ | 83¢ | +$9 |
 US x Denmark Military clash before 2027?Politics | No | $54 | 91¢ | 94¢ | +$2 |
 Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $42 | 69¢ | 92¢ | +$13 |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics | Yes | $49 | 71¢ | 76¢ | +$3 |
 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy | Yes | $19 | 35¢ | 93¢ | +$32 |
 China x Japan military clash before 2027?Politics | No | $49 | 88¢ | 94¢ | +$3 |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 700B and 800B?Politics | Yes | $24 | 17¢ | 37¢ | +$28 |
 Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | No | $48 | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$0 |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $28 | 49¢ | 86¢ | +$20 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Brazil" before 2027?Politics | No | $40 | 78¢ | 92¢ | +$7 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?Politics | No | $43 | 77¢ | 84¢ | +$4 |
 Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?Politics | No | $45 | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$1 |
 Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?Politics | No | $46 | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$0 |
 Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?NFL | Yes | $53 | 34¢ | 29¢ | -$8 |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?Politics | No | $43 | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$1 |
 Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?Tech | No | $42 | 89¢ | 93¢ | +$2 |
 Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics | No | $44 | 97¢ | 97¢ | -$0 |
 Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $37 | 80¢ | 93¢ | +$6 |
 Greece x Turkey military engagement by December 31?Politics | No | $39 | 86¢ | 91¢ | +$2 |
 Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 15?Politics | Yes | $30 | 24¢ | 33¢ | +$11 |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T?Politics | Yes | $63 | 21¢ | 14¢ | -$22 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by September 30?Politics | Yes | $40 | 86¢ | 87¢ | +$0 |
 Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics | No | $39 | 78¢ | 80¢ | +$1 |
 Human moon landing in 2026?Tech | No | $37 | 92¢ | 99¢ | +$3 |
 Will there be four or more UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?Other | No | $34 | 84¢ | 98¢ | +$6 |
 Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?Politics | No | $36 | 91¢ | 98¢ | +$3 |
 Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?Politics | No | $37 | 92¢ | 98¢ | +$2 |
 Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?Politics | No | $36 | 89¢ | 98¢ | +$4 |
 OPEC dissolves in 2026?Politics | No | $36 | 91¢ | 97¢ | +$3 |
 Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | No | $38 | 98¢ | 98¢ | -$0 |
 US recession by end of 2026?Economy | No | $30 | 73¢ | 93¢ | +$8 |
 Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics | Yes | $43 | 10¢ | 9.0¢ | -$5 |
 OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?Tech | Yes | $22 | 55¢ | 95¢ | +$16 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?Politics | No | $30 | 74¢ | 93¢ | +$7 |
 Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027?Crypto | No | $20 | 45¢ | 84¢ | +$17 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?Tech | No | $32 | 77¢ | 90¢ | +$5 |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $31 | 79¢ | 92¢ | +$5 |
 Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?Politics | No | $36 | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$0 |
 Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $43 | 43¢ | 36¢ | -$7 |
| Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?Politics | No | $30 | 80¢ | 92¢ | +$4 |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $32 | 89¢ | 95¢ | +$2 |
 Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Politics | No | $30 | 82¢ | 94¢ | +$4 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Politics | Yes | $31 | 33¢ | 35¢ | +$2 |
 Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $20 | 4.8¢ | 7.8¢ | +$13 |
 Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Politics | Yes | $19 | 28¢ | 48¢ | +$13 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics | No | $28 | 83¢ | 94¢ | +$4 |
 Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027?Politics | No | $26 | 78¢ | 95¢ | +$6 |
 Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by September 15, 2026?Politics | Yes | $6 | 15¢ | 83¢ | +$25 |
 Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics | Yes | $30 | 76¢ | 76¢ | +$0 |
 Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Politics | No | $28 | 71¢ | 75¢ | +$1 |
 Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $26 | 52¢ | 59¢ | +$3 |
 X banned in any European country by December 31?Politics | No | $17 | 50¢ | 85¢ | +$12 |
 Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?Politics | No | $26 | 85¢ | 98¢ | +$4 |
 Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?Politics | No | $27 | 64¢ | 70¢ | +$3 |
 Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?Tech | No | $28 | 93¢ | 97¢ | +$1 |
 Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics | No | $26 | 86¢ | 97¢ | +$3 |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?Politics | No | $28 | 95¢ | 97¢ | +$1 |
 Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?Politics | No | $19 | 60¢ | 94¢ | +$10 |
 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics | No | $28 | 82¢ | 86¢ | +$1 |
 Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $21 | 60¢ | 85¢ | +$8 |
 US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $25 | 84¢ | 95¢ | +$3 |
 Don Lemon sentenced to prison?Politics | No | $25 | 85¢ | 95¢ | +$3 |
 No one announced as next James Bond?Culture | No | $28 | 83¢ | 82¢ | -$1 |
 US strike on Mexico by December 31?Politics | No | $21 | 71¢ | 91¢ | +$6 |
 Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Politics | Yes | $23 | 39¢ | 46¢ | +$4 |
 Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $20 | 66¢ | 89¢ | +$7 |
Bought Yes · Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?$01h ago