 Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech | Yes | $177 | 8.1¢ | 7.5¢ | -$14 |
 Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $132 | 26¢ | 23¢ | -$15 |
| Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $37 | 26¢ | 62¢ | +$50 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $165 | 29¢ | 13¢ | -$94 |
 Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech | Yes | $76 | 4.9¢ | 3.3¢ | -$25 |
 Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $25 | 14¢ | 14¢ | +$2 |
 Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Politics | Yes | $23 | 35¢ | 27¢ | -$5 |
 Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech | Yes | $16 | 1.4¢ | 1.5¢ | +$1 |
 Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech | Yes | $30 | 18¢ | 7.0¢ | -$18 |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $51 | 7.6¢ | 1.7¢ | -$40 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $59 | 3.9¢ | 0.7¢ | -$48 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $11 | 14¢ | 11¢ | -$3 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Tech | Yes | $6 | 13¢ | 17¢ | +$2 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics | Yes | $9 | 37¢ | 27¢ | -$3 |
 Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $119 | 3.2¢ | 0.1¢ | -$113 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Tech | Yes | $7 | 6.6¢ | 5.3¢ | -$1 |
 Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Economy | Yes | $11 | 18¢ | 8.5¢ | -$6 |
 Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $7 | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | -$2 |
 Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech | Yes | $8 | 1.2¢ | 0.7¢ | -$3 |
 Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | No | $6 | 5.6¢ | 4.8¢ | -$1 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Finance | Yes | $5 | 6.5¢ | 6.1¢ | -$0 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $9 | 2.5¢ | 1.3¢ | -$4 |
 Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $800 in July?Finance | Yes | $17 | 3.1¢ | 0.7¢ | -$13 |
 Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $10 | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | -$6 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in July?Finance | Yes | $21 | 6.0¢ | 1.1¢ | -$18 |
| Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech | Yes | $4 | 0.7¢ | 0.5¢ | -$1 |
 Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech | Yes | $3 | 0.4¢ | 0.4¢ | +$0 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in July?Finance | Yes | $40 | 14¢ | 1.1¢ | -$37 |
 Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Tech | Yes | $3 | 8.2¢ | 8.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $6 | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | -$3 |
 Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $10 | 1.1¢ | 0.4¢ | -$7 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $9,300 (HIGH) in December?Finance | Yes | $4 | 7.1¢ | 5.2¢ | -$1 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in July?Finance | Yes | $47 | 15¢ | 1.0¢ | -$44 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy | Yes | $5 | 4.6¢ | 2.8¢ | -$2 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?Finance | Yes | $3 | 18¢ | 17¢ | -$0 |
 Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 0.5¢ | 0.5¢ | +$0 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?Tech | Yes | $4 | 7.7¢ | 4.6¢ | -$2 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?Finance | Yes | $5 | 16¢ | 7.5¢ | -$3 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $3 | 7.8¢ | 6.5¢ | -$0 |
| Will Nikki Haley announce a presidential run before 2027?Politics | Yes | $5 | 8.6¢ | 4.0¢ | -$3 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Politics | Yes | $9 | 3.5¢ | 0.8¢ | -$7 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $1 | 0.4¢ | 0.7¢ | +$1 |
 Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Politics | Yes | $5 | 34¢ | 13¢ | -$3 |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $6 | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | -$4 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $240 | 7.4¢ | 0.1¢ | -$238 |
 Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?Politics | Yes | $2 | 7.0¢ | 5.5¢ | -$0 |
 Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $8 | 44¢ | 8.5¢ | -$6 |
 Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?Politics | Yes | $5 | 10¢ | 3.3¢ | -$3 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in July?Finance | Yes | $3 | 2.3¢ | 1.1¢ | -$2 |
| Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $8 | 33¢ | 6.5¢ | -$6 |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | Yes | $2 | 0.9¢ | 0.5¢ | -$1 |
 Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $7 | 13¢ | 2.7¢ | -$5 |
 Cuban regime falls in 2026?Politics | Yes | $2 | 28¢ | 18¢ | -$1 |
 Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $4 | 1.9¢ | 0.5¢ | -$3 |
 Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy | Yes | $3 | 4.3¢ | 1.5¢ | -$2 |
 Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?Tech | Yes | $3 | 14¢ | 4.5¢ | -$2 |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy | Yes | $3 | 1.2¢ | 0.4¢ | -$2 |
 Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $2 | 8.0¢ | 4.5¢ | -$1 |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $13 | 0.6¢ | 0.1¢ | -$12 |
 Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | -$1 |
 Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?Politics | Yes | $2 | 18¢ | 9.5¢ | -$1 |
 Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Politics | Yes | $1 | 14¢ | 9.6¢ | -$0 |
 Will South African inflation be between 4.1% and 4.4% in 2026?Economy | Yes | $1 | 31¢ | 31¢ | +$0 |
 Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | -$1 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?Economy | YesResolved | $5 | 2.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting?Economy | YesResolved | $1 | 0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |