 Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech | NoResolved | $100 | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$46 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $6 | 6.8¢ | 100¢ | +$83 |
 Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $27 | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$53 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech | NoResolved | $30 | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$14 |
| Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech | NoResolved | $15 | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$6 |
 Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $50 | 12¢ | 4.3¢ | -$32 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $11 | 83¢ | 89¢ | +$1 |
| Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?Politics | Yes | $12 | 19¢ | 16¢ | -$2 |
 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy | Yes | $4 | 16¢ | 28¢ | +$3 |
 Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy | Yes | $8 | 14¢ | 10¢ | -$2 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Politics | NoResolved | $5 | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $2 | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
 Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Politics | Yes | $5 | 10.0¢ | 3.4¢ | -$3 |
 Iran Nuke before 2027?Politics | No | $1 | 84¢ | 95¢ | +$0 |
 Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%?Economy | Yes | $3 | 71¢ | 26¢ | -$2 |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Finance | YesResolved | $5 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will Google have the best AI model for coding on March 31?Tech | YesResolved | $19 | 5.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$19 |
 Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $2 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 10.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $60 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | -$60 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?Tech | YesResolved | $20 | 2.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
 Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by March 31?Politics | YesResolved | $5 | 3.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $3 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math on March 31?Tech | YesResolved | $3 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Economy | NoResolved | $1 | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Claude 4.7 released by March 31?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 59¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $20 | 2.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech | NoResolved | $5 | 8.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Politics | YesResolved | $10 | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?Politics | YesResolved | $2 | 44¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 33¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Politics | NoResolved | $3 | 5.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Politics | NoResolved | $3 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Politics | YesResolved | $10 | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $50 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | -$50 |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31?Politics | YesResolved | $14 | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | -$14 |
| Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 2.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $3 | 2.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $4 | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 23¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 9.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $13 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | -$13 |
 ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?Tech | YesResolved | $18 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | -$18 |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech | NoResolved | $50 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$50 |
 Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $3 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Economy | YesResolved | $1 | 2.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Politics | YesResolved | $5 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 6.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Finance | YesResolved | $5 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 2.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Politics | NoResolved | $1 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?Tech | YesResolved | $25 | 6.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$25 |
| Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech | NoResolved | $195 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | -$195 |
| Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 9.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $18 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | -$18 |
 X banned in U.K. by March 31?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $15 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | -$15 |
 Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 78¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?Tech | NoResolved | $10 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech | YesResolved | $50 | 63¢ | 0.0¢ | -$50 |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?Politics | YesResolved | $2 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Economy | YesResolved | $1 | 7.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Politics | YesResolved | $30 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | -$30 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31?Politics | NoResolved | $4 | 33¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
Cashed out Yes · US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?$23mo ago
Cashed out Yes · Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?$83mo ago