casualInference

Predicting since Aug 202564 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

All-time PnL

+$0

This year

+$0

Last 30 days

+$0

Portfolio value

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle

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Profit over time

What they are betting now

Market	Side	Stake	Entry	Now	PnL
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 9?Politics	NoResolved	$6	58¢	0.0¢	-$6
Moscow air traffic suspended by July 15?Politics	NoResolved	$4	71¢	0.0¢	-$4
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 gross profit margin 67%-68%?Tech	NoResolved	$5	78¢	0.0¢	-$5
Will Jerry Carl be the Republican nominee for AL-01?Politics	NoResolved	$2	18¢	0.0¢	-$2
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7% in June?Economy	NoResolved	$3	74¢	0.0¢	-$3
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 5?Weather	NoResolved	$2	31¢	0.0¢	-$2
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?Politics	NoResolved	$4	60¢	0.0¢	-$4
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?Politics	NoResolved	$4	64¢	0.0¢	-$4
Will WD-40 (WDFC) beat quarterly earnings?Finance	NoResolved	$4	22¢	0.0¢	-$4
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?Politics	NoResolved	$2	93¢	0.0¢	-$2
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June?Economy	NoResolved	$1	14¢	0.0¢	-$1
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?Politics	NoResolved	$3	84¢	0.0¢	-$3
Will Trump say "Eagle" in July?Mentions	NoResolved	$3	51¢	0.0¢	-$3
Will "Anthropic" be said 10+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Mentions	NoResolved	$3	29¢	0.0¢	-$3
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03?Premier League	YesResolved	$1	50¢	0.0¢	-$1
Will "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 69m and 73m?Culture	NoResolved	$3	54¢	0.0¢	-$3
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on July 3?Weather	NoResolved	$4	58¢	0.0¢	-$4
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on July 8?Weather	NoResolved	$2	35¢	0.0¢	-$2

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics-$17

Weather+$5

Tech-$3

Culture-$3

Finance-$3

Mentions-$3

Economy-$3

Premier League-$1

Formula 1+$0

World Cup+$0

Biggest hit

+$7

Grok 4.4 released by July 17?

Toughest beat

-$4

Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on July 31, 2026?

Recent moves

Cashed out No · Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on July 31, 2026?$41mo ago
Cashed out No · Will Trump say "Heart Attack" in July?$61mo ago
Cashed out No · Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.00 in July?$41mo ago
Cashed out No · Will Google have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?$21mo ago
Cashed out No · Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?$31mo ago
Cashed out No · Will one person dissent the July Fed decision?$51mo ago
Cashed out No · Will fewer than 75 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?$42mo ago
Cashed out No · Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$52mo ago
Cashed out No · 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by June 30?$42mo ago
Cashed out No · Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on July 6?$32mo ago
Cashed out No · S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on July 6?$32mo ago
Cashed out No · Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 6?$32mo ago