LongerConvexity

Predicting since May 202459 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

All-time PnL

+$0

This year

+$0

Last 30 days

+$0

Portfolio value

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle

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Profit over time

What they are betting now

Market	Side	Stake	Entry	Now	PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 September 15-21?Crypto	YesResolved	$29	1.3¢	0.0¢	-$29
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?Politics	YesResolved	$51	3.2¢	0.0¢	-$51
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Politics	YesResolved	$19	1.7¢	0.0¢	-$19
Will "Trump" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Mentions	NoResolved	$16	9.8¢	0.0¢	-$16
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?Politics	YesResolved	$48	12¢	0.0¢	-$48
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 27-November 2?Crypto	YesResolved	$17	1.2¢	0.0¢	-$17
US forces in Venezuela by October 31?Politics	YesResolved	$15	3.0¢	0.0¢	-$15
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?Politics	YesResolved	$10	9.6¢	0.0¢	-$10
Will "Venezuela" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Mentions	NoResolved	$6	2.5¢	0.0¢	-$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ETCrypto	UpResolved	$20	10¢	0.0¢	-$20
Bitcoin above $106K on September 10?Crypto	NoResolved	$10	6.0¢	0.0¢	-$10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on September 24?Crypto	NoResolved	$10	1.0¢	0.0¢	-$10
Bitcoin above $106K on September 5?Crypto	NoResolved	$18	7.0¢	0.0¢	-$18
Will Bitcoin reach $121K September 8–14?Crypto	YesResolved	$1	2.9¢	0.0¢	-$1
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?Politics	YesResolved	$73	1.6¢	0.0¢	-$73
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?Politics	YesResolved	$44	8.7¢	0.0¢	-$44
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24?Politics	YesResolved	$13	11¢	0.0¢	-$13
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?Politics	YesResolved	$60	0.3¢	0.0¢	-$60
Israel strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?Politics	YesResolved	$3	4.0¢	0.0¢	-$3
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?Politics	YesResolved	$29	11¢	0.0¢	-$29
Will "Maduro" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Mentions	NoResolved	$23	42¢	0.0¢	-$23
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on September 23?Crypto	NoResolved	$1	0.4¢	0.0¢	-$1
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?Politics	YesResolved	$52	6.3¢	0.0¢	-$52
Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 September 15-21?Crypto	YesResolved	$4	0.4¢	0.0¢	-$4
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 6?Finance	DownResolved	$27	5.7¢	0.0¢	-$27
Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 September 15-21?Crypto	YesResolved	$1	0.1¢	0.0¢	-$1
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?Economy	YesResolved	$32	8.4¢	0.0¢	-$32

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics-$437

Crypto-$122

Finance+$94

Mentions-$53

NFL-$42

Economy-$32

Tech+$4

Biggest hit

+$114

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?

Toughest beat

-$42

Will Bad Bunny perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?

Recent moves

Sold Yes · US strikes Iraq by March 7?$334mo ago
Sold Yes · US strikes Iraq by March 7?$304mo ago
Bought Yes · US strikes Iraq by March 7?$384mo ago
Bought Yes · US strikes Iraq by March 7?$214mo ago
Sold Yes · Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?$984mo ago
Bought Yes · Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?$734mo ago
Cashed out Yes · Will Bad Bunny perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?$04mo ago
Bought Yes · US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?$485mo ago
Bought Yes · US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?$495mo ago
Bought Yes · US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?$25mo ago
Bought Yes · Israel strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?$35mo ago
Bought Yes · US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?$175mo ago