← Whale Watch

hollyber

Predicting since Oct 2025501 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $48K on UFC / MMA markets since Oct 2025.

Right now: $39K riding on Government shutdown on Saturday?.

Biggest hit: +$33K on Lighter Airdrop on December 30?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?PoliticsNoResolved$150¢100¢+$1
Iran leadership change by April 30?PoliticsNoResolved$150¢100¢+$1
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card)UFC / MMAMandel NalloResolved$98345¢0.0¢-$983
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?PoliticsYesResolved$5391.3¢0.0¢-$539
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims)UFC / MMAIgnacio BahamondesResolved$20321¢0.0¢-$203
Will Jeannette Jara and Johannes Kaiser advance to the runoff?PoliticsYesResolved$4114¢0.0¢-$41
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$4.4K44¢0.0¢-$4.4K
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 26 2025?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$6.8K31¢0.0¢-$6.8K
Lighter Airdrop on December 24?CryptoYesResolved$1.7K4.9¢0.0¢-$1.7K
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?PoliticsYesResolved$3.0K26¢0.0¢-$3.0K
Will "War Machine" be the top US Netflix movie this week?CultureYesResolved$11.8¢0.0¢-$1
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 25 2025?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
Will Korea make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?Baseball (other)YesResolved$616.8¢0.0¢-$61
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 21 2025?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
Lighter Airdrop on December 15?CryptoYesResolved$1.7K4.9¢0.0¢-$1.7K
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 28 2025?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
Lighter Airdrop on December 21?CryptoYesResolved$1.7K4.9¢0.0¢-$1.7K
Han Duck-soo in jail by December 31?PoliticsYesResolved$14551¢0.0¢-$145
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 14 2025?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
US forces enter Iran by January 31?PoliticsYesResolved$1027.0¢0.0¢-$102
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?PoliticsNoResolved$8835¢0.0¢-$88
Lighter Airdrop on December 31?CryptoYesResolved$2.5K3.6¢0.0¢-$2.5K
Lighter Airdrop on December 13?CryptoYesResolved$1.7K4.9¢0.0¢-$1.7K
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?PoliticsYesResolved$3.0K22¢0.0¢-$3.0K
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 29 2025?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?PoliticsYesResolved$4015.7¢0.0¢-$401
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$37074¢0.0¢-$370
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20?PoliticsNoResolved$38076¢0.0¢-$380
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?PoliticsNoResolved$32064¢0.0¢-$320
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 25?PoliticsNoResolved$2160¢0.0¢-$21
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?PoliticsNoResolved$90.2¢0.0¢-$9
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 30 2025 or later?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
Will Korea win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?MLBYesResolved$451.5¢0.0¢-$45
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$20333¢0.0¢-$203
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17?Premier LeagueNoResolved$4949¢0.0¢-$49
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$4.5K45¢0.0¢-$4.5K
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?CryptoNoResolved$1050.3¢0.0¢-$105
Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?OlympicsYesResolved$36335¢0.0¢-$363
Lighter Airdrop on December 18?CryptoYesResolved$1.7K4.9¢0.0¢-$1.7K
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?PoliticsYesResolved$3.3K21¢0.0¢-$3.3K
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$8.5K85¢0.0¢-$8.5K
No airdrop in 2025?CryptoYesResolved$20414¢0.0¢-$204
Lighter Airdrop on December 26?CryptoYesResolved$7194.9¢0.0¢-$719
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 23 2025?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?PoliticsYesResolved$52.7¢0.0¢-$5
Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-01-16?Soccer (other)YesResolved$73073¢0.0¢-$730
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 16 2025?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31?PoliticsYesResolved$142.9¢0.0¢-$14
Lighter Airdrop on December 20?CryptoYesResolved$1.7K4.9¢0.0¢-$1.7K
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 17 2025?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
Cho Tae-yong in jail by November 30? PoliticsNoResolved$7272¢0.0¢-$72
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?PoliticsNoResolved$8.5K44¢0.0¢-$8.5K
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$232.0¢0.0¢-$23
Will the government shutdown end November 21 or later?PoliticsYesResolved$150.3¢0.0¢-$15
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$7.2K80¢0.0¢-$7.2K
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?PoliticsYesResolved$1.7K23¢0.0¢-$1.7K
UFC 323: Pantoja vs. Van (Flyweight, Main Card)UFC / MMAPantojaResolved$10068¢0.0¢-$100
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?PoliticsNoResolved$3.4K77¢0.0¢-$3.4K
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?PoliticsNoResolved$1.9K28¢0.0¢-$1.9K
UFC 325: Elekana vs. Tafa (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)UFC / MMATafaResolved$26052¢0.0¢-$260
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?EconomyYesResolved$11512¢0.0¢-$115
Will "Minions: The Rise of Gru" be the top US Netflix movie this week?CultureYesResolved$2130¢0.0¢-$21
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 27 2025?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?PoliticsNoResolved$49212¢0.0¢-$492
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 24 2025?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
Lighter Airdrop on December 16?CryptoYesResolved$1.7K4.9¢0.0¢-$1.7K
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$173¢0.0¢-$1
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to less than 30 years in prison?PoliticsYesResolved$62031¢0.0¢-$620
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Card)UFC / MMAIsrael AdesanyaResolved$34155¢0.0¢-$341
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?MLBYesResolved$1.0K20¢0.0¢-$1.0K
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 15 2025?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?TechNoResolved$73411¢0.0¢-$734
Lighter Airdrop on December 23?CryptoYesResolved$1.7K4.9¢0.0¢-$1.7K
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?PoliticsNoResolved$18.0¢0.0¢-$1
USD - Korean Won exchange rate hits 1,500 by March 31?FinanceNoResolved$236¢0.0¢-$2
Lighter Airdrop on December 17?CryptoYesResolved$1.7K4.9¢0.0¢-$1.7K
Government shutdown on Saturday?PoliticsYesResolved$39K78¢0.0¢-$39K
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?PoliticsYesResolved$219¢0.0¢-$2
Will the government shutdown end November 14?PoliticsYesResolved$3824.4¢0.0¢-$382
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$26026¢0.0¢-$260
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?PoliticsNoResolved$615.9¢0.0¢-$61
Will Japan make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?Baseball (other)YesResolved$27846¢0.0¢-$278
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?PoliticsYesResolved$1.8K18¢0.0¢-$1.8K
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?CultureYesResolved$5656¢0.0¢-$56
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?PoliticsYesResolved$1194.0¢0.0¢-$119
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 13 2025?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
Lighter Airdrop on December 25?CryptoYesResolved$1.7K4.9¢0.0¢-$1.7K
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo win the first round?PoliticsYesResolved$66.6¢0.0¢-$6
Lighter Airdrop on December 19?CryptoYesResolved$1.7K4.9¢0.0¢-$1.7K
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionPoliticsYesResolved$314.5¢0.0¢-$31
Nothing Ever Happens: NovemberPoliticsNoResolved$1343.3¢0.0¢-$134
Men's Final - Canada vs. USAHockey (other)CanadaResolved$1.1K54¢0.0¢-$1.1K
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Cup Group StageeSportsHanwha Life EsportsResolved$80.8¢0.0¢-$8
Lighter Airdrop on December 22?CryptoYesResolved$1.7K4.9¢0.0¢-$1.7K
UFC Fight Night: JJ Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)UFC / MMAJamey-Lyn HorthResolved$8.1K95¢0.0¢-$8.1K
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 22 2025?TechYesResolved$32.9¢0.0¢-$3
Will "The Bad Guys 2" be the top US Netflix movie this week?CultureYesResolved$33.9¢0.0¢-$3

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

UFC / MMA+$48K
Politics-$41K
Culture+$11K
Tech+$10K
Olympics+$2.3K
Boxing+$1.9K
MLB-$1.1K
Hockey (other)-$1.0K
Crypto+$685
Finance+$591
Soccer (other)+$416
Baseball (other)-$339
Biggest hit
+$33K
Lighter Airdrop on December 30?
Toughest beat
-$20K
Will Kim Keon Hee be sentenced to prison by March 31?

Recent moves

  • Sold Yes · Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?$33mo ago
  • Sold Yes · Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$133mo ago
  • Sold Yes · Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$413mo ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$563mo ago
  • Sold No · Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$663mo ago
  • Sold No · Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$1003mo ago
  • Sold No · Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?$1193mo ago
  • Sold No · Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?$1763mo ago
  • Sold No · Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?$6203mo ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?$8813mo ago
  • Sold Yes · Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$2.0K3mo ago
  • Sold No · Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?$2.3K3mo ago