← Whale Watch

cmarx

Predicting since Jan 2026122 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $4.2K on Politics markets since Jan 2026.

Right now: $3.3K riding on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?.

Biggest hit: +$1.2K on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?PoliticsNo$3.3K82¢84¢+$99
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?PoliticsNo$2.1K90¢99¢+$214
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?PoliticsNo$1.9K62¢63¢+$20
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?PoliticsYes$71767¢100¢+$350
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$65868¢93¢+$242
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?PoliticsYes$78069¢79¢+$120
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?PoliticsNo$10049¢96¢+$94
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsNo$12388¢99¢+$15
Trump signs housing bill by end of July?PoliticsNo$6560¢99¢+$43
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?TechYes$15863¢36¢-$67
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?PoliticsYes$8677¢80¢+$3
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?PoliticsYes$506.9¢7.4¢+$4
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?PoliticsYes$6521¢11¢-$31
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$15916¢0.5¢-$154
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$472¢90¢+$1
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 2?PoliticsNoResolved$3719¢0.0¢-$37
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?PoliticsYesResolved$2286.5¢0.0¢-$228
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?PoliticsNoResolved$71961¢0.0¢-$719
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?PoliticsYesResolved$47867¢0.0¢-$478
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?MentionsYesResolved$11315¢0.0¢-$113
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 14?PoliticsYesResolved$86.1¢0.0¢-$8
Will Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beat quarterly earnings?FinanceYesResolved$312.8¢0.0¢-$31
Will Trump visit China by April 30?PoliticsYesResolved$841¢0.0¢-$8
Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?TechNoResolved$18233¢0.0¢-$182
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?PoliticsYesResolved$5563¢0.0¢-$55
Will Donald Trump be the first substitute White House Press Secretary?PoliticsYesResolved$1844¢0.0¢-$18
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$8217¢0.0¢-$82
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?PoliticsNoResolved$36028¢0.0¢-$360
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$12671¢0.0¢-$126
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?PoliticsNoResolved$19251¢0.0¢-$192
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?PoliticsNoResolved$96056¢0.0¢-$960
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 15?PoliticsYesResolved$6659¢0.0¢-$66
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?PoliticsNoResolved$57071¢0.0¢-$570
Will Trump say "Patriot" during Fox interview on Wednesday?MentionsNoResolved$1477¢0.0¢-$14
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?TechNoResolved$42857¢0.0¢-$428
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?PoliticsYesResolved$16779¢0.0¢-$167
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$53980¢0.0¢-$539
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$1726¢0.0¢-$17
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?PoliticsYesResolved$14818¢0.0¢-$148

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics+$4.2K
World Cup+$933
Soccer (other)-$423
Mentions-$63
Finance-$31
Culture+$19
Tech-$7
eSports+$2
Biggest hit
+$1.2K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Toughest beat
-$619
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Recent moves

  • Bought Yes · Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?$43h ago
  • Bought Yes · 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$505h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?$8216h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$1.9K16h ago
  • Bought No · Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$1545d ago
  • Bought No · Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$6625d ago
  • Bought No · Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$1.2K5d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$7907d ago
  • Cashed out No · Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$4757d ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$2958d ago
  • Bought No · Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$1878d ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$3498d ago