← Whale Watch

Spirit-LT

Predicting since Nov 20241,370 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $7.2K on Politics markets since Nov 2024.

Right now: $564 across 4 Politics markets.

Biggest hit: +$5.8K on US strikes Iraq by February 28?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?PoliticsYes$6029¢32¢+$6
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?PoliticsYes$475.1¢4.8¢-$3
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?PoliticsNo$541.3¢0.9¢-$19
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?PoliticsYes$871.7¢0.7¢-$52
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?PoliticsYes$373.7¢3.5¢-$3
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$3411¢12¢+$1
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?PoliticsYes$4623¢16¢-$15
Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?PoliticsYes$357.0¢6.0¢-$5
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$182.5¢4.0¢+$11
Iran Nuke before 2027?PoliticsYes$295.8¢5.2¢-$3
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?PoliticsYes$140.2¢0.4¢+$11
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?PoliticsNo$2551¢44¢-$4
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?PoliticsYes$3920¢9.5¢-$20
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$180.9¢0.9¢-$1
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by September 30, 2026?PoliticsYes$189.0¢8.5¢-$1
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$923.9¢0.7¢-$76
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?CryptoYes$274.1¢2.5¢-$11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? PoliticsYes$612.6¢0.5¢-$48
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?PoliticsYes$136.5¢6.5¢-$0
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?PoliticsYes$873.9¢0.5¢-$75
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?PoliticsYes$190.6¢0.4¢-$7
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$223.7¢1.9¢-$10
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?CryptoYes$273.5¢1.5¢-$16
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$353.5¢1.1¢-$25
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$3826¢6.5¢-$29
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$1098¢96¢-$0
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$285.6¢1.8¢-$19
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?PoliticsYes$126.0¢4.5¢-$3
Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsYes$151.4¢0.9¢-$6
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?CryptoYes$185.0¢2.5¢-$9
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?PoliticsYes$193.5¢1.3¢-$12
Will a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?PoliticsYes$104.4¢2.6¢-$4
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?PoliticsNo$672.1¢0.1¢-$62
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?PoliticsYes$4515¢1.6¢-$40
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$244.9¢0.8¢-$20
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsYes$7615¢0.6¢-$73
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?CryptoYes$50.7¢0.4¢-$3
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsYes$2010¢0.9¢-$18
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July?CryptoYes$131.1¢0.1¢-$12
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$103.1¢0.4¢-$9
Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsYes$147.0¢0.5¢-$13
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of July 4?CultureNoResolved$11.1¢0.0¢-$1
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?WeatherYesResolved$47.2¢0.0¢-$4
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?PoliticsYesResolved$55.3¢0.0¢-$5
Will Donald Trump dance on May 20, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$10.5¢0.0¢-$1
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 25, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$456.4¢0.0¢-$45
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?PoliticsNoResolved$95.5¢0.0¢-$9
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 30?WeatherYesResolved$21.9¢0.0¢-$2
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 28, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$88.0¢0.0¢-$8
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?PoliticsYesResolved$505.2¢0.0¢-$50
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 21?WeatherYesResolved$31.4¢0.0¢-$3
Will none of the eaglets hatch before April 17?CultureYesResolved$12.1¢0.0¢-$1
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$116.9¢0.0¢-$11
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17?WeatherNoResolved$10.1¢0.0¢-$1
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C or below on May 20?WeatherYesResolved$10.2¢0.0¢-$1
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$160.3¢0.0¢-$16
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$711¢0.0¢-$7
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 10?WeatherYesResolved$812¢0.0¢-$8
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?PoliticsYesResolved$80.8¢0.0¢-$8
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14?WeatherYesResolved$42.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?World CupYesResolved$77.0¢0.0¢-$7
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?WeatherYesResolved$1212¢0.0¢-$12
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?World CupYesResolved$1530¢0.0¢-$15
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 28, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$42.9¢0.0¢-$4
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 2?WeatherNoResolved$163.6¢0.0¢-$16
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?PoliticsNoResolved$538.0¢0.0¢-$53
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ETCryptoUpResolved$156.5¢0.0¢-$15
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?WeatherYesResolved$1837¢0.0¢-$18
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19?WeatherYesResolved$49.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$204.2¢0.0¢-$20
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?WeatherYesResolved$58.7¢0.0¢-$5
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ETCryptoUpResolved$108.0¢0.0¢-$10
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 14?WeatherNoResolved$10.1¢0.0¢-$1
World Cup: Folarin Balogun to Play vs. Belgium?World CupNoResolved$751.8¢0.0¢-$75
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$50.5¢0.0¢-$5
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29?WeatherNoResolved$141.2¢0.0¢-$14
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$20.1¢0.0¢-$2
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by March 31?PoliticsYesResolved$31.8¢0.0¢-$3
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to AdvanceWorld CupGermanyResolved$2038¢0.0¢-$20
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 12, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$1216¢0.0¢-$12
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?TechNoResolved$52.1¢0.0¢-$5
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?PoliticsYesResolved$185.1¢0.0¢-$18
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?PoliticsNoResolved$10.6¢0.0¢-$1
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21?WeatherNoResolved$151.0¢0.0¢-$15
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$1911¢0.0¢-$19
Iran full airspace closure by July 24?PoliticsYesResolved$348.5¢0.0¢-$34
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$77.0¢0.0¢-$7
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$2626¢0.0¢-$26
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Robot" or "Robotic" or "Robotics" during NYC rally?MentionsNoResolved$2612¢0.0¢-$26
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2?WeatherNoResolved$33.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17?WeatherYesResolved$10.1¢0.0¢-$1
France vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceWorld CupFranceResolved$10437¢0.0¢-$104
Military action against Iran ends on April 5, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$30.4¢0.0¢-$3
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$5420¢0.0¢-$54
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$60.6¢0.0¢-$6
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?PoliticsYesResolved$7018¢0.0¢-$70
Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?MentionsNoResolved$644.8¢0.0¢-$64
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 19?WeatherNoResolved$21.0¢0.0¢-$2
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on April 17?WeatherYesResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 5, 2026?CultureYesResolved$12.1¢0.0¢-$1

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics+$7.2K
Weather-$990
Crypto+$793
Culture-$559
NFL+$217
World Cup+$183
Tech-$142
Finance-$102
Economy+$89
Boxing+$77
UFC / MMA-$66
Champions League+$48
Biggest hit
+$5.8K
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
Toughest beat
-$494
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Recent moves

  • Bought Yes · Iran full airspace closure by July 31?$718m ago
  • Bought No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?$92h ago
  • Bought No · Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$103h ago
  • Bought Yes · Iran full airspace closure by July 31?$63h ago
  • Bought No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?$133h ago
  • Bought No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?$03h ago
  • Bought Yes · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$05h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$16h ago
  • Bought Yes · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?$66h ago
  • Bought Yes · Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$86h ago
  • Bought Yes · Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$86h ago
  • Bought No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?$136h ago