 Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $1.7K | 84¢ | 90¢ | +$128 |
 Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $1.1K | 77¢ | 89¢ | +$161 |
 Will Erling Braut Haaland be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?Other sports | No | $768 | 62¢ | 57¢ | -$57 |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics | Yes | $575 | 64¢ | 73¢ | +$77 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $534 | 31¢ | 34¢ | +$56 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics | Yes | $504 | 84¢ | 92¢ | +$45 |
 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics | Yes | $382 | 38¢ | 54¢ | +$154 |
 Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?Tech | No | $509 | 93¢ | 95¢ | +$10 |
 Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech | No | $338 | 55¢ | 70¢ | +$88 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics | Yes | $380 | 21¢ | 18¢ | -$65 |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $295 | 87¢ | 88¢ | +$2 |
 Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech | No | $260 | 49¢ | 49¢ | -$2 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $203 | 35¢ | 42¢ | +$40 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics | No | $249 | 83¢ | 77¢ | -$20 |
 Will Anthony Joshua rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?Tech | No | $174 | 64¢ | 84¢ | +$54 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $162 | 64¢ | 88¢ | +$61 |
 Will Lamine Yamal be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?Other sports | No | $183 | 92¢ | 95¢ | +$7 |
 Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?Tech | No | $155 | 52¢ | 61¢ | +$27 |
| Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?Tech | No | $182 | 84¢ | 82¢ | -$4 |
 Will Chuck Norris be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?Tech | No | $132 | 74¢ | 93¢ | +$33 |
 Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?Tech | No | $149 | 83¢ | 86¢ | +$4 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech | No | $252 | 19¢ | 10¢ | -$114 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech | No | $144 | 20¢ | 17¢ | -$25 |
 Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics | Yes | $244 | 61¢ | 20¢ | -$166 |
 Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Tech | No | $73 | 33¢ | 24¢ | -$21 |
 Will Tom Holland rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2026?Tech | No | $31 | 35¢ | 46¢ | +$10 |
 Will Avengers: Doomsday rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?Tech | No | $38 | 62¢ | 65¢ | +$2 |
| Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?Tech | No | $26 | 12¢ | 18¢ | +$13 |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $39 | 55¢ | 54¢ | -$1 |
 Will Jalen Brunson rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?Tech | No | $27 | 67¢ | 80¢ | +$5 |
 Will Conor McGregor rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?Tech | Yes | $29 | 27¢ | 28¢ | +$1 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $9 | 43¢ | 62¢ | +$4 |
 Will Kenneth Walker III be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?Other sports | Yes | $1 | 0.5¢ | 1.1¢ | +$1 |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Tech | NoResolved | $4 | 2.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Politics | YesResolved | $200 | 4.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$200 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Tech | NoResolved | $4 | 2.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $142 | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | -$142 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Tech | NoResolved | $115 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | -$115 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 2, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $34 | 6.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$34 |
 Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $62 | 2.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$62 |
Sold No · Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$5581d ago