noblesse.oblige

Predicting since Dec 2024149 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $11K on Politics markets since Dec 2024.

Right now: $14K riding on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?.

Biggest hit: +$29K on Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?.

All-time PnL

+$0

This year

+$0

Last 30 days

+$0

Portfolio value

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle

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Profit over time

What they are betting now

Market	Side	Stake	Entry	Now	PnL
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics	Yes	$2.0K	13¢	8.5¢	-$659
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics	Yes	$144	14¢	22¢	+$75
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Politics	Yes	$54	11¢	11¢	-$0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics	Yes	$38	11¢	13¢	+$6
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics	Yes	$31	62¢	63¢	+$0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics	Yes	$15	2.6¢	2.6¢	+$0
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Politics	Yes	$5	15¢	13¢	-$1
Macron out by December 31, 2026?Politics	Yes	$5	5.3¢	4.3¢	-$1
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?Politics	YesResolved	$3	3.9¢	0.0¢	-$3
Will Ghana win on 2026-07-03?World Cup	YesResolved	$5	12¢	0.0¢	-$5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?Politics	YesResolved	$8	1.9¢	0.0¢	-$8
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Politics	YesResolved	$1	0.4¢	0.0¢	-$1
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?Politics	YesResolved	$2	3.3¢	0.0¢	-$2
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?Politics	YesResolved	$21	1.7¢	0.0¢	-$21
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Politics	YesResolved	$14K	24¢	0.0¢	-$14K
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30?World Cup	YesResolved	$10	8.0¢	0.0¢	-$10
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?Politics	YesResolved	$13	2.2¢	0.0¢	-$13
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?Politics	YesResolved	$10	1.7¢	0.0¢	-$10
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?Politics	YesResolved	$1	3.8¢	0.0¢	-$1
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?Politics	YesResolved	$6	0.4¢	0.0¢	-$6
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Politics	YesResolved	$10	5.0¢	0.0¢	-$10
Will Russia rejoin the G7 in 2025?Politics	YesResolved	$105	6.0¢	0.0¢	-$105
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?Politics	YesResolved	$7	1.2¢	0.0¢	-$7
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?Politics	YesResolved	$1	0.7¢	0.0¢	-$1
Russia x Ukraine buffer zone agreement by December 31?Politics	YesResolved	$7	4.9¢	0.0¢	-$7
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?Politics	YesResolved	$6	0.8¢	0.0¢	-$6
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?Politics	YesResolved	$1	0.4¢	0.0¢	-$1
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?Politics	YesResolved	$2	0.5¢	0.0¢	-$2
Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02?World Cup	YesResolved	$5	24¢	0.0¢	-$5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?Politics	YesResolved	$4.4K	31¢	0.0¢	-$4.4K
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Politics	YesResolved	$3	3.2¢	0.0¢	-$3
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?World Cup	YesResolved	$5	0.1¢	0.0¢	-$5
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?World Cup	YesResolved	$5	39¢	0.0¢	-$5
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? Politics	YesResolved	$155	11¢	0.0¢	-$155
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Politics	YesResolved	$4	1.5¢	0.0¢	-$4
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30?World Cup	YesResolved	$5	27¢	0.0¢	-$5
Will Austria win on 2026-07-02?World Cup	YesResolved	$5	8.0¢	0.0¢	-$5

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics+$11K

Crypto+$136

World Cup-$40

Mentions+$14

NFL-$3

Other-$2

Biggest hit

+$29K

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Toughest beat

-$2.5K

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?

Recent moves

Bought Yes · Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$113h ago
Bought Yes · Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$113h ago
Bought Yes · Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$4414h ago
Bought Yes · Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$1614h ago
Bought Yes · Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$1614h ago
Bought Yes · Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$414h ago
Bought Yes · Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?$315h ago
Bought Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$516h ago
Bought Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$3316h ago
Bought Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$3217h ago
Sold Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$58218h ago
Sold Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$2202d ago