 Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech | No | $2.9K | 87¢ | 85¢ | -$87 |
 Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $1.3K | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$42 |
 Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $1.1K | 86¢ | 92¢ | +$79 |
 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $940 | 85¢ | 99¢ | +$151 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?Tech | No | $971 | 91¢ | 96¢ | +$48 |
 Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $918 | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$26 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?Tech | No | $871 | 68¢ | 61¢ | -$100 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Tech | No | $803 | 81¢ | 75¢ | -$58 |
 Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $496 | 67¢ | 73¢ | +$42 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Tech | No | $444 | 84¢ | 79¢ | -$25 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $332 | 76¢ | 90¢ | +$58 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?Tech | Yes | $378 | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$3 |
 Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $302 | 64¢ | 79¢ | +$71 |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?Tech | No | $304 | 73¢ | 80¢ | +$33 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Tech | Yes | $182 | 61¢ | 77¢ | +$47 |
 Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech | Yes | $95 | 83¢ | 82¢ | -$2 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Tech | Yes | $87 | 71¢ | 74¢ | +$4 |
 Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto | No | $39 | 89¢ | 89¢ | +$0 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $92 | 21¢ | 8.5¢ | -$55 |
 Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $30 | 38¢ | 31¢ | -$6 |
 Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $1 | 1.8¢ | 31¢ | +$18 |
 Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $5 | 4.0¢ | 15¢ | +$12 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $1 | 3.5¢ | 83¢ | +$13 |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $18 | 5.0¢ | 2.5¢ | -$9 |
| Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 4.9¢ | 17¢ | +$6 |
| Will OpenAI be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?Tech | Yes | $3 | 3.4¢ | 9.0¢ | +$5 |
 Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?Politics | No | $7 | 74¢ | 78¢ | +$0 |
 Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $1 | 0.3¢ | 1.1¢ | +$2 |
 Will Moonshot be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $0 | 0.3¢ | 1.6¢ | +$1 |
 Will Z.ai be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $1 | 2.1¢ | 2.2¢ | +$0 |
| Will OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?Tech | YesResolved | $3 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $54 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | -$54 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 21, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $25 | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$25 |
 Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Politics | YesResolved | $2 | 2.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $13 | 9.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$13 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $12 | 2.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$12 |
 Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $155 | 52¢ | 0.0¢ | -$155 |
| Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $2 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $12 | 3.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$12 |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $168 | 63¢ | 0.0¢ | -$168 |
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics | YesResolved | $26 | 3.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$26 |
| Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 3, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $9 | 0.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9 |
| Will Moonshot be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $33 | 9.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$33 |
| Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $0 | 1.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
 Grok 4.6 released by August 11, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $44 | 37¢ | 0.0¢ | -$44 |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $24 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | -$24 |
 Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics | YesResolved | $145 | 2.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$145 |
| Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $42 | 3.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$42 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $523 | 41¢ | 0.0¢ | -$523 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Tech | NoResolved | $4 | 2.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $1 | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $52 | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$52 |
| Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $59 | 21¢ | 0.0¢ | -$59 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $524 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | -$524 |
| Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?Tech | YesResolved | $64 | 49¢ | 0.0¢ | -$64 |
 Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $189 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | -$189 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $76 | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | -$76 |
 Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?Politics | YesResolved | $67 | 75¢ | 0.0¢ | -$67 |
 Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Politics | YesResolved | $478 | 43¢ | 0.0¢ | -$478 |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by November 30, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $205 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | -$205 |
| Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $2 | 9.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will Meta be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $2 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Politics | YesResolved | $35 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | -$35 |
| Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $4 | 0.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
| Will Moonshot be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $0 | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $115 | 2.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$115 |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $81 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | -$81 |
 Will MiniMax have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 0.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $340 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | -$340 |
| Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $189 | 55¢ | 0.0¢ | -$189 |
 Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World Cup | YesResolved | $3 | 2.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
