← Whale Watch

aviato

Predicting since Jul 20243,056 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $36K on Politics markets since Jul 2024.

Right now: $24K across 2 Politics markets.

Biggest hit: +$2.9K on Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?PoliticsNo$14K97¢99¢+$350
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?PoliticsNo$13K94¢99¢+$620
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$10K70¢83¢+$1.8K
Iran leadership change by July 31?PoliticsNo$11K95¢99¢+$392
Yoon out of custody before 2027?PoliticsNo$10.0K82¢89¢+$874
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$9.2K84¢95¢+$1.2K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?PoliticsNo$9.9K92¢95¢+$378
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?PoliticsNo$8.5K87¢95¢+$739
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?TechYes$8.6K97¢99¢+$192
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?PoliticsNo$6.6K85¢90¢+$409
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$6.7K94¢95¢+$69
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?TechYes$6.4K96¢99¢+$228
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?PoliticsNo$5.8K97¢99¢+$139
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in July?PoliticsNo$5.9K98¢100¢+$73
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?CultureNo$4.1K98¢99¢+$31
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?TechNo$3.8K98¢100¢+$80
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?PoliticsYes$3.7K92¢96¢+$167
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?PoliticsNo$3.6K95¢97¢+$105
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? CultureNo$2.9K93¢95¢+$31
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?PoliticsNo$2.9K98¢98¢+$9
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?PoliticsNo$2.3K88¢92¢+$93
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?PoliticsNo$2.3K92¢94¢+$49
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?PoliticsYes$2.1K91¢97¢+$129
Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?NBANo$2.0K98¢100¢+$46
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?PoliticsYes$2.0K99¢100¢+$13
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsNo$2.0K99¢99¢+$1
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?PoliticsNo$1.9K96¢97¢+$25
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?PoliticsNo$1.8K92¢96¢+$89
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?PoliticsNo$1.8K88¢95¢+$123
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?PoliticsYes$1.7K97¢100¢+$52
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsNo$1.9K94¢83¢-$226
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?PoliticsNo$1.5K88¢89¢+$25
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?PoliticsNo$1.2K88¢95¢+$81
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? TechNo$1.0K99¢99¢+$4
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?PoliticsNo$79074¢94¢+$215
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by July 31?PoliticsNo$95395¢100¢+$43
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?PoliticsYes$97297¢99¢+$19
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?PoliticsNo$86086¢97¢+$108
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?PoliticsNo$94194¢95¢+$8
Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?TechNo$87493¢99¢+$54
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?CultureNo$89089¢88¢-$10
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?PoliticsNo$82889¢94¢+$48
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?EconomyNo$95495¢83¢-$121
Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2027?PoliticsNo$68795¢97¢+$16
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?WeatherYes$53076¢93¢+$119
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?PoliticsNo$59489¢92¢+$20
Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027?PoliticsNo$60095¢97¢+$13
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?PoliticsNo$37775¢94¢+$90
Jonathan Majors as Kang?CultureNo$44988¢91¢+$15
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in July?FinanceNo$37190¢95¢+$18
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 200m and 250m by August 31?CultureNo$31295¢100¢+$16
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?CultureYes$29781¢88¢+$25
Kash Patel out by July 31?PoliticsNo$29797¢99¢+$5
Will George Clooney be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?PoliticsNo$27289¢95¢+$17
Will Jon Stewart announce a Presidential run before 2027?PoliticsNo$22096¢97¢+$3
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?CultureNo$21194¢99¢+$11
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?PoliticsNo$21091¢95¢+$9
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?PoliticsYes$19982¢88¢+$13
Iran leadership change by December 31?PoliticsYes$66066¢21¢-$455
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?PoliticsNo$17391¢94¢+$5
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 74m?CultureNo$13791¢100¢+$13
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?PoliticsNo$13893¢97¢+$6
Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?PoliticsNo$12291¢99¢+$10
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-19 House seat?PoliticsYes$11395¢94¢-$1
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $288 in July?FinanceNo$9494¢98¢+$4
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$9093¢93¢+$0
Will Michelle Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?PoliticsNo$4193¢98¢+$2
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?PoliticsNo$2556¢79¢+$10
Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027?PoliticsNo$3294¢95¢+$0
Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027?PoliticsNo$2695¢98¢+$1
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$80020¢0.4¢-$786
Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?PoliticsNo$1293¢97¢+$1
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$992¢96¢+$0
Will George Clooney be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?PoliticsYes$10.4¢5.2¢+$8
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$80020¢0.1¢-$794
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?EconomyNo$296¢96¢-$0
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 98m?CultureNo$198¢99¢+$0
Will DeepSeek have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?TechYesResolved$10.1¢0.0¢-$1
Will Baidu have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?TechYesResolved$00.1¢0.0¢-$0
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?PoliticsNoResolved$8783¢0.0¢-$87
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?CultureYesResolved$00.2¢0.0¢-$0

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics+$36K
Culture+$26K
Tech+$5.8K
UFC / MMA+$3.5K
eSports-$3.0K
Weather+$2.1K
Mentions+$342
Crypto+$321
Boxing+$316
Economy+$234
Olympics+$231
Finance+$225
Biggest hit
+$2.9K
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
Toughest beat
-$4.9K
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?

Recent moves

  • Bought No · Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?$1645m ago
  • Bought No · Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?$35718m ago
  • Bought No · Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?$10919m ago
  • Bought No · Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?$10633m ago
  • Bought No · Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?$1741h ago
  • Bought No · Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?$2021h ago
  • Bought No · Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 86m?$281h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$9241h ago
  • Sold No · Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?$5.5K1h ago
  • Bought No · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1422h ago
  • Bought No · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1422h ago
  • Bought No · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$312h ago