tetlock

Predicting since Mar 202639 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

All-time PnL

+$0

This year

+$0

Last 30 days

+$0

Portfolio value

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle

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Market	Side	Stake	Entry	Now	PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics	Yes	$28	62¢	56¢	-$2
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics	No	$14	61¢	60¢	-$0
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics	Yes	$1	0.6¢	1.5¢	+$2
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics	Yes	$1	0.6¢	1.5¢	+$2
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics	No	$2	86¢	95¢	+$0
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics	Yes	$1	3.3¢	5.3¢	+$1
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics	Yes	$1	9.0¢	11¢	+$0
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics	Yes	$1	6.6¢	7.2¢	+$0
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?Weather	NoResolved	$27	51¢	0.0¢	-$27
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?Tech	YesResolved	$26	47¢	0.0¢	-$26
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?Tech	NoResolved	$1	7.0¢	0.0¢	-$1
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Tech	YesResolved	$13	44¢	0.0¢	-$13
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?Culture	YesResolved	$13	70¢	0.0¢	-$13
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?Weather	NoResolved	$13	60¢	0.0¢	-$13
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?Finance	YesResolved	$2	28¢	0.0¢	-$2

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics+$71

Tech-$25

Weather-$14

Culture-$12

Finance+$9

Other+$2

Biggest hit

+$27

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Toughest beat

-$9

Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?

Cashed out No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$4819d ago
Cashed out Yes · Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?$31mo ago
Bought No · Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?$131mo ago
Cashed out No · Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?$541mo ago
Cashed out No · Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?$241mo ago
Cashed out No · Iran closes its airspace by May 31?$221mo ago
Cashed out No · Israel closes its airspace by May 31?$191mo ago
Bought No · Israel closes its airspace by May 31?$152mo ago
Bought No · Iran closes its airspace by May 31?$152mo ago
Sold No · Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?$242mo ago
Sold Yes · Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?$12mo ago
Sold No · Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?$182mo ago