← Whale Watch

LukeAlpha

Predicting since Sep 20252,180 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗
All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?PoliticsYes$91.0¢0.9¢-$1
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31?PoliticsYes$31.0¢1.9¢+$3
Iran leadership change by July 31?PoliticsYes$31.0¢1.4¢+$1
Kash Patel out by July 31?PoliticsYes$31.0¢1.5¢+$1
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?PoliticsYes$31.0¢1.2¢+$1
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?PoliticsYes$31.0¢1.1¢+$0
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$31.0¢1.1¢+$0
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in July?FinanceYes$31.0¢0.9¢-$0
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?PoliticsYes$31.0¢0.9¢-$0
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?PoliticsYes$61.0¢0.4¢-$4
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?PoliticsYes$31.0¢0.8¢-$1
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?PoliticsYes$30.9¢0.7¢-$1
Israeli forces enter Beirut by July 31?PoliticsYes$31.0¢0.7¢-$1
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$31.0¢0.7¢-$1
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?PoliticsYes$31.0¢0.7¢-$1
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$31.0¢0.6¢-$1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?FinanceYes$31.0¢0.5¢-$1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?FinanceYes$61.0¢0.3¢-$5
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?EconomyYes$31.0¢0.5¢-$2
US charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$31.0¢0.4¢-$2
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by July 31?PoliticsYes$31.0¢0.4¢-$2
Trump out as President by July 31?PoliticsYes$31.0¢0.4¢-$2
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$31.0¢0.4¢-$2
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?EconomyYes$31.0¢0.4¢-$2
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?PoliticsNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 17-20, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Baidu have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?TechYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?PoliticsNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 27?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
US bank failure by March 31?EconomyNoResolved$41.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$41.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will Russia enter Kurylivka by February 28?PoliticsNoResolved$41.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?PoliticsYesResolved$41.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?PoliticsNoResolved$11.0¢0.0¢-$1
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May?FinanceNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?TechNoResolved$21.0¢0.0¢-$2
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in May?FinanceYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?TechYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30?TechNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Antonia Ruzic vs Anastasia ZakharovaTennisZakharovaResolved$41.0¢0.0¢-$4
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?TechNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?TechNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$21.0¢0.0¢-$2
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?WeatherYesResolved$01.0¢0.0¢-$0
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will the US next strike Iran on March 22, 2026 (ET)?PoliticsYesResolved$41.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 8, 2026?TechYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?EconomyYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by February 28?PoliticsNoResolved$41.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?TechNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in January 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$41.0¢0.0¢-$4
Qatar Open: Arthur Fils vs Quentin HalysTennisHalysResolved$41.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will Trump try to Fire Powell by January 31?PoliticsYesResolved$01.0¢0.0¢-$0
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?CultureNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Military action against Iran ends by April 19, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by February 28?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?TechYesResolved$41.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March?PoliticsNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$41.0¢0.0¢-$4
Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15?PoliticsNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will the US next strike Iran on March 24, 2026 (ET)?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the March meeting?PoliticsYesResolved$01.0¢0.0¢-$0
James Comey mugshot released by May 5?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
James Comey charges dropped by May 31?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?EconomyNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will MrBeast hit 472 Million subscribers by March 31?CultureNoResolved$21.0¢0.0¢-$2
Will "Risk It All" by Bruno Mars be the Billboard #1 song for the week of March 21?CultureYesResolved$21.0¢0.0¢-$2
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?WeatherYesResolved$01.0¢0.0¢-$0
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?PoliticsNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?PoliticsNoResolved$41.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Arco win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?CultureYesResolved$01.0¢0.0¢-$0
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?WeatherYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$41.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?PoliticsNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 6, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$21.0¢0.0¢-$2
Military action against Iran ends by April 16, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in January 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$41.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?EconomyYesResolved$11.0¢0.0¢-$1
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?CultureYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will the US next strike Iran on March 12, 2026 (ET)?PoliticsYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$41.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?PoliticsNoResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?TechYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on week 1?CultureYesResolved$31.0¢0.0¢-$3

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics-$833
Crypto+$121
Finance-$115
Culture-$102
Tech-$69
Tennis-$65
Weather-$24
Boxing-$15
Mentions-$14
Economy-$12
Other sports-$3
NBA-$3
Biggest hit
+$108
Ethereum all time high by October 31?
Toughest beat
-$9
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET?

Recent moves

  • Bought Yes · Kash Patel out by July 31?$34h ago
  • Bought Yes · Iran leadership change by July 31?$36h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?$17h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?$07h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?$57h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?$17h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?$27h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?$110h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$015h ago
  • Sold Yes · Israeli forces enter Choukine by July 31?$020h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?$321h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by July 31?$221h ago