 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $961 | 86¢ | 80¢ | -$72 |
 Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Politics | No | $653 | 73¢ | 94¢ | +$182 |
 Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Economy | Yes | $637 | 46¢ | 55¢ | +$130 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics | No | $677 | 82¢ | 80¢ | -$20 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31?Politics | No | $405 | 69¢ | 69¢ | -$1 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Politics | No | $300 | 83¢ | 94¢ | +$38 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $300 | 93¢ | 99¢ | +$20 |
 Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?Politics | No | $263 | 92¢ | 96¢ | +$13 |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Economy | Yes | $269 | 62¢ | 63¢ | +$3 |
| Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Politics | Yes | $164 | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$27 |
 US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics | Yes | $245 | 40¢ | 30¢ | -$61 |
 Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Finance | No | $172 | 64¢ | 59¢ | -$13 |
 Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Politics | No | $122 | 70¢ | 87¢ | +$31 |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $144 | 64¢ | 68¢ | +$8 |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $111 | 82¢ | 99¢ | +$23 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?Politics | Yes | $231 | 57¢ | 32¢ | -$104 |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics | No | $127 | 87¢ | 87¢ | +$0 |
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Politics | No | $97 | 78¢ | 99¢ | +$26 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Politics | Yes | $106 | 58¢ | 67¢ | +$16 |
| Will Trump say "Gay" or "Homosexual" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Mentions | No | $110 | 86¢ | 96¢ | +$12 |
 Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Politics | Yes | $125 | 41¢ | 40¢ | -$3 |
 Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics | No | $114 | 60¢ | 64¢ | +$7 |
 Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Politics | No | $109 | 88¢ | 98¢ | +$12 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Politics | Yes | $113 | 53¢ | 48¢ | -$11 |
| Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Politics | Yes | $68 | 65¢ | 95¢ | +$31 |
 Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics | No | $94 | 79¢ | 80¢ | +$1 |
 US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Politics | Yes | $54 | 39¢ | 60¢ | +$28 |
| Iran leadership change by September 30?Politics | No | $70 | 90¢ | 90¢ | -$0 |
 Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics | Yes | $125 | 26¢ | 13¢ | -$65 |
| Will "Minions & Monsters" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?Culture | Yes | $54 | 89¢ | 98¢ | +$5 |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Politics | No | $88 | 35¢ | 23¢ | -$31 |
 Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Politics | No | $62 | 73¢ | 60¢ | -$12 |
 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $238 | 57¢ | 12¢ | -$188 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics | Yes | $106 | 58¢ | 27¢ | -$57 |
 Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Politics | No | $34 | 77¢ | 98¢ | +$9 |
| Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Politics | Yes | $21 | 31¢ | 56¢ | +$18 |
 Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?Politics | No | $32 | 73¢ | 84¢ | +$5 |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 27?Politics | No | $32 | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$1 |
 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics | Yes | $60 | 57¢ | 31¢ | -$28 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $35 | 18¢ | 17¢ | -$3 |
 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics | No | $28 | 57¢ | 56¢ | -$0 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?Tech | No | $29 | 74¢ | 67¢ | -$3 |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $23 | 88¢ | 98¢ | +$3 |
 Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $23 | 85¢ | 90¢ | +$1 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Tech | No | $23 | 80¢ | 86¢ | +$2 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Politics | Yes | $33 | 52¢ | 28¢ | -$16 |
 Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Politics | No | $17 | 72¢ | 69¢ | -$1 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Politics | No | $14 | 86¢ | 87¢ | +$0 |
 Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture | No | $14 | 70¢ | 73¢ | +$0 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $12 | 77¢ | 90¢ | +$2 |
| Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 92m and 98m?Culture | No | $12 | 89¢ | 98¢ | +$1 |
 Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?Politics | Yes | $18 | 12¢ | 8.5¢ | -$5 |
| Will Gavin Newsom be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?Politics | Yes | $10 | 16¢ | 20¢ | +$3 |
 Will Trump praise Allah again by July 31?Politics | No | $8 | 70¢ | 93¢ | +$3 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15?Politics | No | $8 | 65¢ | 84¢ | +$2 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics | Yes | $8 | 84¢ | 76¢ | -$1 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 28¢ | 86¢ | +$5 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $4 | 74¢ | 96¢ | +$1 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $4 | 72¢ | 84¢ | +$1 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?Politics | No | $3 | 59¢ | 59¢ | +$0 |
 Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026?Politics | No | $3 | 88¢ | 89¢ | +$0 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Politics | Yes | $3 | 36¢ | 38¢ | +$0 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Politics | Yes | $11 | 26¢ | 6.5¢ | -$8 |
 Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Politics | No | $3 | 63¢ | 63¢ | -$0 |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?Politics | No | $2 | 90¢ | 96¢ | +$0 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?Tech | No | $2 | 89¢ | 96¢ | +$0 |
 Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?Politics | Yes | $2 | 12¢ | 10¢ | -$0 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | No | $26 | 14¢ | 0.8¢ | -$25 |
| Iran leadership change by August 31?Politics | No | $1 | 90¢ | 95¢ | +$0 |
Sold Yes · Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$529m ago