 Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $2.6K | 67¢ | 79¢ | +$467 |
 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?Politics | No | $1.4K | 80¢ | 89¢ | +$154 |
 Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?Economy | No | $1.5K | 86¢ | 90¢ | +$68 |
 Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?Politics | No | $1.5K | 93¢ | 95¢ | +$26 |
 Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Politics | No | $1.4K | 90¢ | 96¢ | +$87 |
 Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $791 | 47¢ | 71¢ | +$402 |
 Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $1.0K | 85¢ | 91¢ | +$68 |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $646 | 46¢ | 74¢ | +$401 |
 Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?Tech | No | $911 | 77¢ | 81¢ | +$44 |
 Modi out by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $928 | 91¢ | 93¢ | +$22 |
 Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?Politics | No | $867 | 89¢ | 88¢ | -$6 |
 Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Tech | No | $604 | 72¢ | 97¢ | +$210 |
 Obama federally charged before 2027?Politics | No | $557 | 68¢ | 95¢ | +$222 |
 Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics | No | $565 | 81¢ | 95¢ | +$96 |
 Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $656 | 85¢ | 85¢ | -$3 |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $576 | 89¢ | 91¢ | +$9 |
 Will BRICS add a new member in 2026?Politics | No | $553 | 76¢ | 80¢ | +$25 |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $494 | 69¢ | 80¢ | +$78 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech | No | $441 | 67¢ | 76¢ | +$60 |
 Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?Politics | No | $436 | 75¢ | 84¢ | +$48 |
 Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026?Politics | No | $404 | 80¢ | 91¢ | +$54 |
 Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics | No | $1.2K | 55¢ | 18¢ | -$788 |
 Trump out as President before 2027?Politics | No | $368 | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$2 |
 Will Russia invade another country in 2026?Politics | No | $362 | 90¢ | 92¢ | +$4 |
 Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?Politics | No | $314 | 78¢ | 78¢ | +$1 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Tech | No | $300 | 55¢ | 55¢ | -$1 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?Tech | No | $215 | 54¢ | 75¢ | +$80 |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $230 | 52¢ | 65¢ | +$58 |
 Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $257 | 41¢ | 40¢ | -$1 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 31?Politics | No | $205 | 74¢ | 90¢ | +$45 |
 Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?Politics | No | $224 | 82¢ | 91¢ | +$23 |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $190 | 63¢ | 80¢ | +$48 |
 Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton engaged in 2026?Culture | No | $222 | 81¢ | 87¢ | +$15 |
 Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?Politics | No | $226 | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$1 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech | No | $213 | 77¢ | 79¢ | +$4 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech | No | $188 | 83¢ | 95¢ | +$28 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $244 | 22¢ | 20¢ | -$30 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Tech | No | $197 | 71¢ | 71¢ | -$0 |
 Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?Politics | No | $189 | 92¢ | 91¢ | -$3 |
 US congress stock trading ban before 2027?Politics | No | $151 | 74¢ | 90¢ | +$33 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics | No | $158 | 79¢ | 91¢ | +$23 |
 Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?Politics | No | $172 | 94¢ | 94¢ | +$1 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Tech | Yes | $186 | 73¢ | 67¢ | -$16 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech | No | $148 | 86¢ | 92¢ | +$11 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech | No | $196 | 73¢ | 55¢ | -$49 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech | No | $138 | 81¢ | 87¢ | +$9 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech | No | $123 | 55¢ | 66¢ | +$24 |
| Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $129 | 57¢ | 61¢ | +$9 |
| Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $119 | 86¢ | 89¢ | +$5 |
 Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by December 31?Tech | No | $111 | 80¢ | 88¢ | +$11 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $105 | 24¢ | 27¢ | +$11 |
 Will BP be acquired before 2027?Tech | No | $107 | 85¢ | 90¢ | +$6 |
 Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?Tech | No | $91 | 73¢ | 86¢ | +$15 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 15?Politics | No | $82 | 32¢ | 36¢ | +$11 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?Tech | No | $109 | 89¢ | 71¢ | -$22 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech | No | $81 | 88¢ | 90¢ | +$1 |
 Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $71 | 78¢ | 89¢ | +$10 |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by December 31?Tech | No | $55 | 55¢ | 72¢ | +$17 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Tech | Yes | $63 | 60¢ | 66¢ | +$6 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Tech | No | $66 | 88¢ | 87¢ | -$1 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Tech | No | $55 | 93¢ | 95¢ | +$1 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech | No | $53 | 53¢ | 53¢ | -$0 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 90% or higher?Tech | No | $52 | 94¢ | 94¢ | -$0 |
 Turkish Constitutional Referendum announced in 2026?Politics | No | $44 | 69¢ | 78¢ | +$5 |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by December 31?Tech | No | $27 | 15¢ | 26¢ | +$20 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Tech | No | $45 | 90¢ | 91¢ | +$1 |
| Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Mentions | Yes | $43 | 74¢ | 76¢ | +$1 |
| Will Markwayne Mullin leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $37 | 54¢ | 63¢ | +$6 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech | No | $40 | 85¢ | 84¢ | -$1 |
| Will Trump praise Emmanuel Macron by July 31?Politics | Yes | $74 | 53¢ | 27¢ | -$36 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech | No | $34 | 84¢ | 87¢ | +$1 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Tech | Yes | $34 | 73¢ | 73¢ | +$0 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Tech | No | $33 | 65¢ | 68¢ | +$1 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech | No | $35 | 16¢ | 15¢ | -$2 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Tech | No | $30 | 85¢ | 91¢ | +$2 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech | No | $31 | 61¢ | 60¢ | -$1 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Tech | No | $25 | 38¢ | 43¢ | +$3 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 31?Politics | No | $28 | 14¢ | 14¢ | -$1 |
 Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2026?Politics | No | $29 | 96¢ | 88¢ | -$3 |
 Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference?Mentions | Yes | $24 | 14¢ | 14¢ | +$1 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Tech | No | $18 | 75¢ | 81¢ | +$2 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher?Tech | No | $19 | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$1 |
 Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026?Tech | No | $17 | 81¢ | 85¢ | +$1 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 80% or higher?Tech | No | $15 | 87¢ | 94¢ | +$1 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech | No | $17 | 82¢ | 81¢ | -$0 |
| Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026?Tech | No | $11 | 76¢ | 89¢ | +$2 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31?Politics | No | $14 | 72¢ | 68¢ | -$1 |
| Will Procter & Gamble say "Trump" during earnings call?Mentions | No | $11 | 78¢ | 85¢ | +$1 |
| Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?Tech | No | $9 | 76¢ | 92¢ | +$2 |
| Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by July 31?Politics | Yes | $20 | 59¢ | 27¢ | -$11 |
 Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2026?Politics | Yes | $71 | 43¢ | 5.5¢ | -$62 |
| Will 7 or more people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $8 | 81¢ | 83¢ | +$0 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech | No | $8 | 53¢ | 52¢ | -$0 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech | No | $6 | 78¢ | 80¢ | +$0 |
 Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by July 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $4 | 8.0¢ | 11¢ | +$1 |
| Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?Tech | No | $4 | 78¢ | 93¢ | +$1 |
 Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?Culture | No | $3 | 68¢ | 83¢ | +$1 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Tech | No | $2 | 65¢ | 80¢ | +$1 |
 Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $2 | 50¢ | 84¢ | +$1 |
 Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in July?Politics | Yes | $5 | 63¢ | 32¢ | -$2 |