 Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by October 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $30 | 76¢ | 63¢ | -$5 |
 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics | Yes | $15 | 51¢ | 60¢ | +$2 |
 Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $9 | 3.7¢ | 5.5¢ | +$4 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $10 | 66¢ | 86¢ | +$3 |
 Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Tech | Yes | $10 | 79¢ | 93¢ | +$2 |
 Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Weather | Yes | $10 | 75¢ | 74¢ | -$0 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $7 | 51¢ | 69¢ | +$2 |
 Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $5 | 1.2¢ | 1.8¢ | +$2 |
 Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $5 | 1.1¢ | 1.6¢ | +$2 |
 Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?Politics | Yes | $10 | 19¢ | 14¢ | -$3 |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $5 | 60¢ | 83¢ | +$2 |
 Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $6 | 2.3¢ | 2.5¢ | +$0 |
 Anthropic IPO before 2027?Tech | Yes | $5 | 81¢ | 88¢ | +$0 |
 Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $3 | 3.8¢ | 6.3¢ | +$2 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $5 | 68¢ | 72¢ | +$0 |
 Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $12 | 1.3¢ | 0.4¢ | -$8 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | Yes | $5 | 17¢ | 7.7¢ | -$3 |
 Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $5 | 0.8¢ | 0.4¢ | -$3 |
 Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Politics | Yes | $2 | 12¢ | 13¢ | +$0 |
 Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics | Yes | $3 | 1.1¢ | 0.5¢ | -$1 |
 Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?Politics | Yes | $5 | 34¢ | 8.5¢ | -$4 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $10 | 45¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?Finance | YesResolved | $23 | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | -$23 |
 Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" in September?Mentions | NoResolved | $5 | 55¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Politics | YesResolved | $2 | 6.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Politics | YesResolved | $5 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?Finance | YesResolved | $16 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | -$16 |
| Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on August 27, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $2 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Politics | YesResolved | $3 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?Mentions | YesResolved | $3 | 48¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech | YesResolved | $5 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Tech | YesResolved | $4 | 4.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?Culture | YesResolved | $1 | 5.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $5 | 9.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech | YesResolved | $20 | 76¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
 Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?Culture | YesResolved | $1 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on August 28, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $5 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?Weather | YesResolved | $28 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | -$28 |
Sold No · NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?$118d ago