Arbguy

Predicting since Jul 2024998 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $518K on Politics markets since Jul 2024.

Right now: $46K across 2 Politics markets.

Biggest hit: +$449K on US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?.

All-time PnL

+$0

This year

+$0

Last 30 days

+$0

Portfolio value

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle

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Profit over time

What they are betting now

Market	Side	Stake	Entry	Now	PnL
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics	No	$29K	83¢	94¢	+$3.8K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics	Yes	$35K	23¢	14¢	-$13K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics	Yes	$28K	48¢	36¢	-$7.3K
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics	Yes	$12K	1.3¢	2.1¢	+$6.8K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics	Yes	$23K	49¢	39¢	-$5.1K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics	Yes	$16K	83¢	93¢	+$1.9K
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics	Yes	$17K	11¢	6.5¢	-$7.0K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics	Yes	$11K	41¢	28¢	-$3.3K
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics	Yes	$11K	0.7¢	0.4¢	-$3.5K
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics	Yes	$5.5K	5.1¢	6.0¢	+$993
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics	Yes	$28K	32¢	5.9¢	-$23K
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics	No	$6.0K	34¢	30¢	-$801
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics	No	$6.4K	50¢	36¢	-$1.8K
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics	No	$4.6K	36¢	33¢	-$480
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics	Yes	$43K	87¢	7.5¢	-$40K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Politics	No	$5.3K	21¢	4.1¢	-$4.3K
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics	Yes	$386	83¢	84¢	+$4
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics	Yes	$1.1K	8.9¢	2.8¢	-$739
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics	No	$95	25¢	18¢	-$29
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics	Yes	$3.0K	23¢	0.3¢	-$3.0K
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics	Yes	$23	41¢	34¢	-$4
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?NFL	Yes	$21	0.8¢	0.7¢	-$3
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics	No	$5	63¢	100¢	+$3
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Politics	Yes	$23	26¢	6.5¢	-$17
Giants vs. RamsNFL	GiantsResolved	$8.1K	27¢	0.0¢	-$8.1K
Spread: Rams (-7.5)NFL	GiantsResolved	$11K	56¢	0.0¢	-$11K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics	YesResolved	$1.1K	1.4¢	0.0¢	-$1.1K

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics+$518K

NHL-$112K

MLB+$101K

NBA+$42K

World Cup-$39K

Mentions-$35K

Soccer (other)-$29K

Weather-$23K

Other sports+$19K

Golf+$12K

Crypto+$11K

Culture-$9.4K

Biggest hit

+$449K

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Toughest beat

-$98K

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Recent moves

Bought Giants · Spread: Rams (-7.5)$7.2K13h ago
Bought Giants · Spread: Rams (-7.5)$1.5K13h ago
Bought Giants · Spread: Rams (-7.5)$1413h ago
Bought Giants · Spread: Rams (-7.5)$1213h ago
Bought Giants · Spread: Rams (-7.5)$1213h ago
Bought Giants · Spread: Rams (-7.5)$613h ago
Bought Giants · Spread: Rams (-7.5)$5113h ago
Bought Giants · Spread: Rams (-7.5)$7113h ago
Bought Giants · Spread: Rams (-7.5)$1.9K13h ago
Bought Giants · Giants vs. Rams$8.1K14h ago
Cashed out Yes · Israel closes its airspace by September 30?$2.3K1d ago
Cashed out Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$39K5d ago