Arbguy

Predicting since Jul 2024976 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $101K on MLB markets since Jul 2024.

Right now: $87K across 2 Politics markets.

Biggest hit: +$65K on Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?.

All-time PnL

+$0

This year

+$0

Last 30 days

+$0

Portfolio value

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle

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Profit over time

What they are betting now

Market	Side	Stake	Entry	Now	PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics	Yes	$86K	82¢	78¢	-$3.7K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Politics	No	$44K	74¢	93¢	+$11K
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics	Yes	$28K	48¢	56¢	+$4.2K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics	Yes	$35K	23¢	21¢	-$3.2K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics	No	$29K	83¢	87¢	+$1.4K
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?Politics	No	$24K	87¢	95¢	+$2.3K
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics	Yes	$12K	1.3¢	2.4¢	+$9.0K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Politics	No	$32K	89¢	51¢	-$13K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics	Yes	$16K	83¢	87¢	+$693
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics	Yes	$17K	11¢	8.5¢	-$3.9K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Politics	No	$23K	83¢	46¢	-$10K
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics	Yes	$11K	41¢	42¢	+$133
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics	Yes	$11K	0.7¢	0.7¢	-$230
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?Politics	Yes	$16K	66¢	38¢	-$6.9K
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics	No	$6.4K	50¢	56¢	+$861
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics	Yes	$43K	87¢	12¢	-$37K
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics	No	$6.0K	34¢	34¢	-$89
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics	Yes	$5.5K	5.1¢	5.1¢	-$32
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Politics	No	$5.7K	28¢	14¢	-$2.8K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics	Yes	$1.8K	54¢	56¢	+$81
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Politics	No	$812	75¢	94¢	+$200
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?Politics	No	$636	50¢	80¢	+$375
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics	No	$1.1K	86¢	78¢	-$105
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Politics	Yes	$3.1K	25¢	6.5¢	-$2.3K
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics	Yes	$3.0K	23¢	5.5¢	-$2.3K
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics	Yes	$1.1K	8.9¢	4.3¢	-$552
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics	Yes	$386	83¢	79¢	-$18
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Politics	Yes	$6.0K	26¢	1.6¢	-$5.6K
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?Politics	Yes	$1.5K	6.3¢	0.5¢	-$1.4K
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?Politics	Yes	$167	48¢	21¢	-$96
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Politics	Yes	$23	26¢	18¢	-$8
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics	No	$5	63¢	100¢	+$3
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?Mentions	Yes	$1.1K	7.0¢	0.1¢	-$1.1K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics	Yes	$221	62¢	0.5¢	-$219

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

MLB+$101K

Politics+$71K

NHL-$71K

Mentions-$55K

Soccer (other)-$29K

NBA+$24K

NFL-$15K

Other sports+$14K

Crypto-$2.5K

Tennis-$2.0K

Culture-$1.1K

Champions League-$840

Biggest hit

+$65K

Will Tim Walz be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?

Toughest beat

-$42K

Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?

Recent moves

Cashed out Yes · Will Chris Moneymaker cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event?$523h ago
Bought No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$131d ago
Bought No · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$7561d ago
Bought No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$21d ago
Bought No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$421d ago
Bought No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$421d ago
Bought No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$4361d ago
Bought No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1031d ago
Bought No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$2.5K1d ago
Bought No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$3.7K1d ago
Bought No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$121d ago
Bought No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$8341d ago