← Whale Watch

Montaigne

Predicting since Feb 202637,821 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Down $15K on Politics markets since Feb 2026.

Right now: $2.7M across 2 Politics markets.

Biggest hit: +$4.5K on Netanyahu out by March 31?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsNo$1.3M50¢80¢+$794K
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$1.3M50¢20¢-$794K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$22540¢0.0¢-$225
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$1728¢0.0¢-$17
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?PoliticsYesResolved$1357¢0.0¢-$13
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$1.5K28¢0.0¢-$1.5K
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?CultureNoResolved$2440¢0.0¢-$24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$3234¢0.0¢-$32
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?PoliticsNoResolved$8165¢0.0¢-$81
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?PoliticsYesResolved$72636¢0.0¢-$726
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?PoliticsYesResolved$23335¢0.0¢-$233
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?CultureNoResolved$5736¢0.0¢-$57
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?PoliticsYesResolved$76.7¢0.0¢-$7
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?PoliticsNoResolved$6737¢0.0¢-$67
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$1333¢0.0¢-$13
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?PoliticsNoResolved$2436¢0.0¢-$24
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?PoliticsNoResolved$14792¢0.0¢-$147
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?PoliticsNoResolved$11434¢0.0¢-$114
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?PoliticsNoResolved$6143¢0.0¢-$61
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$45895¢0.0¢-$458
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?PoliticsYesResolved$3.7K45¢0.0¢-$3.7K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$8.5K81¢0.0¢-$8.5K
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?PoliticsYesResolved$14837¢0.0¢-$148
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$6161¢0.0¢-$61
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$8.2K60¢0.0¢-$8.2K
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?PoliticsYesResolved$238¢0.0¢-$2
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$3.1K37¢0.0¢-$3.1K
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$16766¢0.0¢-$167
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?PoliticsNoResolved$52249¢0.0¢-$522
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$2769¢0.0¢-$27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$64865¢0.0¢-$648
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?PoliticsYesResolved$8.5K67¢0.0¢-$8.5K
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?PoliticsNoResolved$1321¢0.0¢-$13
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$5388¢0.0¢-$53
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?CultureNoResolved$19597¢0.0¢-$195
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$59335¢0.0¢-$593
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? PoliticsYesResolved$3117¢0.0¢-$31

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics-$15K
Tech+$374
Mentions+$370
Finance+$254
Culture-$21
Economy+$8
World Cup+$3
Biggest hit
+$4.5K
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Toughest beat
-$2.3K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Recent moves

  • Bought Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals AND San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins AND Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox AND Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates AND Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets AND Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers AND Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles AND Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins AND Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers AND Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays AND Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox$7306m ago
  • Bought Sandefjord Fotball vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)$1631m ago
  • Bought Sandefjord Fotball vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)$1631m ago
  • Bought Sandefjord Fotball vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)$4231m ago
  • Bought Sandefjord Fotball vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)$1631m ago
  • Bought Malmo FF vs. IF Elfsborg: O/U 2.5 AND Will IF Elfsborg win on 2026-07-26?$231m ago
  • Bought Sandefjord Fotball vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)$2131m ago
  • Bought Sandefjord Fotball vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)$1631m ago
  • Bought Sandefjord Fotball vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)$1631m ago
  • Bought Sandefjord Fotball vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)$1631m ago
  • Bought Sandefjord Fotball vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)$1632m ago
  • Bought Sandefjord Fotball vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: FK Bodø/Glimt (-1.5)$4232m ago