← Whale Watch

Centaurspencer

Predicting since Aug 202559 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗
All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$103.1¢16¢+$42
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?PoliticsYes$3629¢28¢-$1
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?PoliticsYes$2535¢20¢-$11
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?PoliticsYes$1518¢9.5¢-$7
US strike on Cuba by December 31?PoliticsYes$1047¢33¢-$3
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?TechNo$571¢84¢+$1
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?PoliticsNo$593¢96¢+$0
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?PoliticsYes$548¢35¢-$1
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?PoliticsYes$540¢21¢-$2
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?PoliticsYes$546¢18¢-$3
Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027?PoliticsYes$547¢18¢-$3
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?PoliticsYes$216¢11¢-$1
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?PoliticsYes$327¢11¢-$2
Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027?PoliticsYes$217¢9.5¢-$1
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?PoliticsYes$219¢11¢-$1
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?TechYesResolved$100.9¢0.0¢-$10
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?PoliticsYesResolved$520¢0.0¢-$5
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?PoliticsYesResolved$512¢0.0¢-$5
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?PoliticsYesResolved$1013¢0.0¢-$10
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?PoliticsNoResolved$322¢0.0¢-$3
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?MentionsYesResolved$17.0¢0.0¢-$1
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$113¢0.0¢-$1
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?MentionsYesResolved$137¢0.0¢-$1
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$206.0¢0.0¢-$20
Will Trump say "Tough Negotiator" during events with Xi Jinping?MentionsYesResolved$118¢0.0¢-$1
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 22, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$117¢0.0¢-$1
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?MentionsYesResolved$117¢0.0¢-$1
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?TechYesResolved$100.8¢0.0¢-$10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$2212¢0.0¢-$22
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?MentionsYesResolved$531¢0.0¢-$5
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?MentionsYesResolved$135¢0.0¢-$1
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?MentionsYesResolved$137¢0.0¢-$1
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?PoliticsNoResolved$323¢0.0¢-$3
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?PoliticsNoResolved$23.5¢0.0¢-$2
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?PoliticsYesResolved$165¢0.0¢-$1
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$538¢0.0¢-$5
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?PoliticsNoResolved$1521¢0.0¢-$15
Will Trump visit China by May 31?PoliticsNoResolved$524¢0.0¢-$5
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping?MentionsYesResolved$524¢0.0¢-$5
Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?MentionsYesResolved$59.0¢0.0¢-$5

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics+$39
Mentions-$33
Tech-$19
Biggest hit
+$47
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
Toughest beat
-$5
Will Iran strike Oman again in March?

Recent moves

  • Cashed out No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$6319d ago
  • Bought No · US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$101mo ago
  • Bought No · US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$201mo ago
  • Bought No · Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?$31mo ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?$31mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$101mo ago
  • Bought No · US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$101mo ago
  • Bought No · US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$21mo ago
  • Bought No · Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?$101mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?$211mo ago
  • Bought No · Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?$51mo ago
  • Cashed out No · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?$181mo ago