← Whale Watch

8396239287

Predicting since Mar 2024343 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Down $4.4K on Tech markets since Mar 2024.

Right now: $14K riding on Which company has the best AI model end of February?.

Biggest hit: +$5.3K on Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?TechNoResolved$1.7K56¢100¢+$1.3K
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?TechNo$29171¢73¢+$8
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?TechNo$11011¢12¢+$5
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?PoliticsNoResolved$477¢100¢+$1
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?TechYesResolved$22849¢0.0¢-$228
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?TechYesResolved$16424¢0.0¢-$164
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?TechYesResolved$1505.0¢0.0¢-$150
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?TechNoResolved$9026¢0.0¢-$90
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?TechYesResolved$26.5¢0.0¢-$2
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?TechYesResolved$2.8K85¢0.0¢-$2.8K
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?TechYesResolved$34879¢0.0¢-$348
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?TechYesResolved$1616¢0.0¢-$16
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?TechNoResolved$14K95¢0.0¢-$14K
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?TechYesResolved$1.9K64¢0.0¢-$1.9K
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?TechYesResolved$19652¢0.0¢-$196
Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?TechYesResolved$00.4¢0.0¢-$0
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?TechYesResolved$52432¢0.0¢-$524
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?TechYesResolved$45080¢0.0¢-$450
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?TechYesResolved$63.6¢0.0¢-$6
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31?TechYesResolved$120.3¢0.0¢-$12
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?TechYesResolved$270.9¢0.0¢-$27
Grokipedia released by November 7?TechNoResolved$00.3¢0.0¢-$0
Grokipedia released by October 31?TechNoResolved$331.1¢0.0¢-$33
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?TechNoResolved$204.0¢0.0¢-$20
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31?TechYesResolved$60.3¢0.0¢-$6
Grok 5 released by December 31?TechYesResolved$118¢0.0¢-$1
Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?TechYesResolved$11.0¢0.0¢-$1
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?TechYesResolved$72.6¢0.0¢-$7
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?TechYesResolved$294.5¢0.0¢-$29
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?TechYesResolved$206.0¢0.0¢-$20
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?TechYesResolved$15967¢0.0¢-$159
Will Google have the top AI model on October 31?TechNoResolved$3413¢0.0¢-$34
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?TechNoResolved$3.7K37¢0.0¢-$3.7K
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?TechYesResolved$5.8K81¢0.0¢-$5.8K
OpenAI social app in 2025?TechNoResolved$1.3K59¢0.0¢-$1.3K

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Tech-$4.4K
Economy+$3.0K
Mentions+$2.0K
Finance+$465
Boxing+$429
Politics-$234
Crypto+$175
NFL-$147
Other sports+$100
Culture-$79
Tennis+$11
Weather+$2
Biggest hit
+$5.3K
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?
Toughest beat
-$4.6K
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?

Recent moves

  • Cashed out Yes · Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$2121mo ago
  • Sold No · Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?$13mo ago
  • Sold No · Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?$33mo ago
  • Sold No · Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?$463mo ago
  • Sold No · Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?$173mo ago
  • Sold No · Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?$143mo ago
  • Cashed out No · Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?$43mo ago
  • Cashed out No · Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?$63mo ago
  • Cashed out No · Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?$2953mo ago
  • Cashed out Yes · Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?$3143mo ago
  • Cashed out Yes · GPT-5.4 released by March 9?$9773mo ago
  • Cashed out Yes · GPT-5.4 released by March 5?$3.1K3mo ago