big-short

Predicting since Oct 20241,311 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $27K on Crypto markets since Oct 2024.

Right now: $3.0K across 3 Tech markets.

Biggest hit: +$12K on MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?.

All-time PnL

+$0

This year

+$0

Last 30 days

+$0

Portfolio value

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle

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Market	Side	Stake	Entry	Now	PnL
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Tech	No	$1.0K	30¢	88¢	+$2.0K
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?Tech	No	$1.2K	88¢	97¢	+$113
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Politics	No	$890	89¢	97¢	+$79
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?Tech	No	$802	83¢	97¢	+$128
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech	Yes	$135	24¢	76¢	+$286
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?Politics	No	$222	76¢	91¢	+$42
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?Politics	No	$34	56¢	94¢	+$23
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Tech	Yes	$11	21¢	11¢	-$5
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech	NoResolved	$50	11¢	0.0¢	-$50
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech	YesResolved	$116	47¢	0.0¢	-$116
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Tech	NoResolved	$154	31¢	0.0¢	-$154
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech	YesResolved	$788	65¢	0.0¢	-$788
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech	NoResolved	$37	14¢	0.0¢	-$37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Politics	NoResolved	$1.8K	77¢	0.0¢	-$1.8K

Realized + open PnL by category

Crypto+$27K

Politics+$13K

Tech+$6.8K

Mentions+$3.5K

Boxing+$552

Weather-$418

Economy+$370

Finance+$361

Culture+$288

Other sports+$166

Bundesliga-$161

Other-$156

Biggest hit

+$12K

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?

Toughest beat

-$6.3K

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Bought No · Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?$1584d ago
Sold No · Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$1.5K1mo ago
Cashed out No · Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$1202mo ago
Cashed out No · Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$2.0K2mo ago
Cashed out No · Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$2.0K2mo ago
Cashed out No · Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?$7372mo ago
Cashed out Yes · US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?$973mo ago
Cashed out Yes · MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$4.0K3mo ago
Sold No · Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$4983mo ago
Cashed out No · Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?$4.4K4mo ago
Sold Yes · MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1574mo ago
Sold Yes · MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.2K4mo ago