big-short

Predicting since Oct 20241,310 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $1.1K on Mentions markets since Oct 2024.

Right now: $3.0K across 3 Tech markets.

All-time PnL

+$0

This year

+$0

Last 30 days

+$0

Portfolio value

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle

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Market	Side	Stake	Entry	Now	PnL
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Tech	No	$1.0K	30¢	75¢	+$1.5K
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics	No	$1.3K	83¢	96¢	+$194
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?Tech	No	$1.2K	88¢	97¢	+$115
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Politics	No	$890	89¢	97¢	+$76
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?Tech	No	$802	83¢	93¢	+$89
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech	Yes	$135	24¢	80¢	+$306
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?Politics	No	$222	76¢	88¢	+$35
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026?Politics	No	$34	56¢	90¢	+$20
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Tech	Yes	$11	21¢	34¢	+$7
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech	NoResolved	$50	11¢	0.0¢	-$50
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech	YesResolved	$116	47¢	0.0¢	-$116
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech	YesResolved	$788	65¢	0.0¢	-$788
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech	NoResolved	$37	14¢	0.0¢	-$37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Politics	NoResolved	$1.8K	77¢	0.0¢	-$1.8K

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Mentions+$1.1K

Tech+$1.1K

Crypto+$472

Weather-$418

Economy+$228

Finance+$139

Culture+$119

Politics-$65

eSports+$23

Other-$21

Other sports+$8

Premier League+$2

Biggest hit

+$695

Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?

Toughest beat

-$435

Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February?

Cashed out No · Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$12025d ago
Cashed out No · Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$2.0K25d ago
Cashed out No · Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$2.0K25d ago
Cashed out No · Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?$73725d ago
Cashed out Yes · US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?$971mo ago
Cashed out Yes · MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$4.0K1mo ago
Sold No · Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$4981mo ago
Cashed out No · Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?$4.4K2mo ago
Sold Yes · MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1572mo ago
Sold Yes · MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.2K2mo ago
Bought Yes · MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$7002mo ago
Bought Yes · MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$3602mo ago