 Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $476 | 81¢ | 88¢ | +$36 |
 Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $369 | 58¢ | 53¢ | -$32 |
 Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?Tech | No | $194 | 43¢ | 63¢ | +$89 |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $259 | 89¢ | 89¢ | -$1 |
| Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?Tech | No | $90 | 41¢ | 64¢ | +$49 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $120 | 66¢ | 72¢ | +$10 |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $75 | 25¢ | 41¢ | +$48 |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $83 | 21¢ | 27¢ | +$24 |
 Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech | No | $80 | 59¢ | 64¢ | +$6 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $61 | 33¢ | 35¢ | +$3 |
 Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $118 | 42¢ | 23¢ | -$55 |
 Will Oura's market cap be between $12.5B and $15B at market close on IPO day?Finance | Yes | $19 | 6.0¢ | 19¢ | +$40 |
 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $131 | 26¢ | 8.4¢ | -$89 |
 Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027?Crypto | Yes | $44 | 67¢ | 58¢ | -$6 |
 Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Politics | Yes | $22 | 9.9¢ | 14¢ | +$10 |
 Will DeepSeek IPO by June 30, 2027?Tech | Yes | $37 | 57¢ | 49¢ | -$6 |
 Will Ethereum hit $3k by December 31, 2027?Crypto | Yes | $48 | 80¢ | 52¢ | -$17 |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $27 | 13¢ | 13¢ | -$1 |
| Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?Finance | Yes | $21 | 2.7¢ | 3.4¢ | +$5 |
 Will ByteDance be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Politics | Yes | $8 | 0.5¢ | 1.5¢ | +$17 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech | Yes | $29 | 36¢ | 31¢ | -$4 |
 Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?Tech | Yes | $24 | 19¢ | 19¢ | -$1 |
 Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Politics | Yes | $5 | 0.5¢ | 1.8¢ | +$13 |
 Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Politics | Yes | $8 | 0.4¢ | 0.8¢ | +$9 |
 Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $19 | 18¢ | 16¢ | -$3 |
 Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $10 | 10.0¢ | 13¢ | +$3 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $13 | 3.7¢ | 3.7¢ | +$0 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $10 | 5.2¢ | 6.7¢ | +$3 |
| Will DeepSeek be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Politics | Yes | $3 | 0.7¢ | 2.9¢ | +$9 |
 Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $11 | 21¢ | 18¢ | -$1 |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $10 | 14¢ | 12¢ | -$2 |
| Will AI solve the odd perfect number problem in 2026?Tech | No | $7 | 88¢ | 78¢ | -$1 |
 Will Tencent be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Politics | Yes | $0 | 0.5¢ | 6.4¢ | +$5 |
 Will Baidu be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Politics | Yes | $2 | 0.2¢ | 0.4¢ | +$2 |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Politics | Yes | $3 | 0.3¢ | 0.4¢ | +$0 |
| Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Politics | Yes | $1 | 1.3¢ | 3.0¢ | +$2 |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $7 | 13¢ | 4.9¢ | -$5 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Politics | Yes | $10 | 8.5¢ | 2.4¢ | -$7 |
 Tabi FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto | Yes | $3 | 6.9¢ | 5.7¢ | -$0 |
| Will Moonshot be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $1 | 1.1¢ | 4.0¢ | +$1 |
 Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Politics | Yes | $1 | 3.0¢ | 6.8¢ | +$1 |
 Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Politics | Yes | $1 | 0.3¢ | 0.4¢ | +$0 |
 Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Finance | Yes | $29 | 11¢ | 0.5¢ | -$27 |
 Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 1.3¢ | 0.9¢ | -$1 |
| Will Z.ai be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $1 | 1.1¢ | 2.7¢ | +$1 |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $1 | 1.1¢ | 2.6¢ | +$1 |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 3.6¢ | 2.2¢ | -$1 |
| Will Google have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $5 | 0.2¢ | 0.1¢ | -$4 |
| Will ByteDance be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Politics | Yes | $0 | 0.6¢ | 3.1¢ | +$1 |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $1 | 2.5¢ | 3.0¢ | +$0 |
 Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of July 20 2026?Finance | YesResolved | $1 | 10.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $2 | 49¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Starmer out by June 26, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $829 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | -$829 |
 Will Meituan have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $9 | 4.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 23?Crypto | NoResolved | $6 | 1.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$6 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by July 31?Finance | YesResolved | $2 | 1.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 0.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $3 | 1.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will MiniMax be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $6 | 4.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$6 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $51 | 0.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$51 |
 Meta (META) Up or Down on July 20?Finance | UpResolved | $0 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will Tencent be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $12 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$12 |
 Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?Politics | NoResolved | $103 | 89¢ | 0.0¢ | -$103 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $101 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | -$101 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.35T by July 31?Finance | YesResolved | $4 | 5.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
| Will ByteDance be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $3 | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $5 | 6.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on July 20?Finance | DownResolved | $0 | 1.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?Politics | YesResolved | $61 | 9.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$61 |
| Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $2 | 0.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 0.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to Moonshot AI?Tech | YesResolved | $108 | 2.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$108 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $10 | 5.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $4 | 4.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?Politics | NoResolved | $7 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | -$7 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $15 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$15 |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to MiniMax?Tech | YesResolved | $107 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$107 |
 Israel closes its airspace by July 15?Politics | YesResolved | $16 | 3.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$16 |
 Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?Politics | NoResolved | $10 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to Baidu?Tech | YesResolved | $108 | 2.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$108 |
 Does Ox Alpha belong to Safe Superintelligence?Tech | YesResolved | $91 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$91 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $0 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
 Does Ox Alpha belong to Nvidia?Tech | YesResolved | $106 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$106 |
| Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $5 | 4.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $5 | 0.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on July 20?Finance | DownResolved | $1 | 2.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Micron (MU) finish week of July 13 above $920?Finance | YesResolved | $0 | 2.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $2 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $0 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $2 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will StepFun have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $4 | 4.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Will Alibaba have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $0 | 0.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $2 | 2.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to ByteDance?Tech | YesResolved | $107 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$107 |
 Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?Tech | YesResolved | $2 | 4.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to Xiaomi?Tech | YesResolved | $107 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$107 |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to Meituan?Tech | YesResolved | $107 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$107 |