Rafivargo · Whale Watch

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Rafivargo

Predicting since Jan 202627 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Right now: $561 riding on Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?.

All-time PnL

+$0

This year

+$0

Last 30 days

+$0

Portfolio value

$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle

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Profit over time

What they are betting now

Market	Side	Stake	Entry	Now	PnL
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?Crypto	Yes	$68	68¢	66¢	-$2
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?Crypto	Yes	$36	36¢	42¢	+$6
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?Politics	YesResolved	$50	11¢	0.0¢	-$50
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?Politics	YesResolved	$10	10¢	0.0¢	-$10
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?Politics	YesResolved	$23	46¢	0.0¢	-$23
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow PlayoffseSports	FURIAResolved	$18	15¢	0.0¢	-$18
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Politics	NoResolved	$561	24¢	0.0¢	-$561
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 August 24-30?Crypto	NoResolved	$50	0.1¢	0.0¢	-$50
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Politics	YesResolved	$5	5.0¢	0.0¢	-$5
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?Crypto	NoResolved	$9	8.9¢	0.0¢	-$9
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?Politics	YesResolved	$10	10¢	0.0¢	-$10
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Politics	YesResolved	$20	2.0¢	0.0¢	-$20
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?Politics	YesResolved	$4	0.4¢	0.0¢	-$4
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?Politics	YesResolved	$5	7.2¢	0.0¢	-$5
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Politics	YesResolved	$85	17¢	0.0¢	-$85
Will it rain during the Dutch Grand Prix?Formula 1	NoResolved	$12	2.2¢	0.0¢	-$12
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?Politics	YesResolved	$5	10¢	0.0¢	-$5
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?Crypto	NoResolved	$103	5.1¢	0.0¢	-$103
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?Politics	YesResolved	$5	4.8¢	0.0¢	-$5

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics-$609

Crypto+$171

eSports-$18

Formula 1-$12

Biggest hit

+$253

Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Toughest beat

-$130

Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Recent moves

Bought No · Will it rain during the Dutch Grand Prix?$21mo ago
Bought No · Will it rain during the Dutch Grand Prix?$101mo ago
Sold Yes · Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 24?$01mo ago
Sold Yes · Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 24?$401mo ago
Sold Yes · Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 24?$171mo ago
Sold Yes · Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 24?$31mo ago
Bought Yes · Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 24?$461mo ago
Bought No · Will Ethereum reach $2,500 August 24-30?$531mo ago
Cashed out No · Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?$1005mo ago
Cashed out No · Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?$4205mo ago
Sold Yes · Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?$1356mo ago
Bought Yes · Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?$226mo ago