| Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?Tech | No | $41 | 79¢ | 78¢ | -$1 |
 Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch?Crypto | Yes | $33 | 66¢ | 67¢ | +$0 |
 Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $48 | 70¢ | 44¢ | -$18 |
 Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the September interest rate announcement?Economy | No | $25 | 92¢ | 90¢ | -$1 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?Tech | Yes | $21 | 77¢ | 78¢ | +$0 |
 Will Waymo launch in Minneapolis, MN by December 31 2026?Tech | No | $21 | 72¢ | 73¢ | +$0 |
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?Politics | No | $23 | 46¢ | 41¢ | -$3 |
 Will the Republican Party win the TX-28 House seat?Politics | No | $18 | 85¢ | 83¢ | -$1 |
| Will Oscar Isaac – “Beef” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?Culture | No | $13 | 40¢ | 40¢ | -$0 |
 Will Mitchell Berman be the WI-01 Democratic nominee?Politics | Yes | $13 | 87¢ | 87¢ | -$0 |
 Will Juan Brunetta (Tigres UANL) be the top goalscorer of the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?Soccer (other) | Yes | $1 | 3.0¢ | 45¢ | +$8 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech | Yes | $10 | 21¢ | 14¢ | -$4 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?Tech | No | $7 | 34¢ | 31¢ | -$1 |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | No | $6 | 50¢ | 48¢ | -$0 |
| Will Trump say "Save America" during Michigan remarks?Mentions | No | $8 | 40¢ | 25¢ | -$3 |
 Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?Tech | Yes | $5 | 18¢ | 17¢ | -$0 |
 Will Ryan Elijah be the FL-07 Republican nominee?Politics | No | $4 | 19¢ | 23¢ | +$1 |
| Meta (META) Q2 average price per ad growth 12%-15%?Finance | Yes | $5 | 31¢ | 28¢ | -$0 |
 Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto | Yes | $5 | 11¢ | 9.1¢ | -$1 |
 Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | Yes | $5 | 63¢ | 63¢ | -$0 |
 Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | Yes | $8 | 40¢ | 22¢ | -$4 |
 Will Ana Brnabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics | No | $3 | 69¢ | 88¢ | +$1 |
 Will Sonia Backès be the next President of the Government of New Caledonia?Politics | No | $3 | 85¢ | 99¢ | +$1 |
| Will Die With A Smile – Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars be the top song in the US for 2026?Culture | Yes | $2 | 3.0¢ | 7.5¢ | +$2 |
| Will Monterrey win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?Soccer (other) | No | $4 | 90¢ | 90¢ | -$0 |
 Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Politics | No | $3 | 78¢ | 83¢ | +$0 |
| Will Yan Diomande join Paris Saint-Germain?Soccer (other) | No | $1 | 20¢ | 100¢ | +$3 |
 Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?Politics | No | $3 | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
| Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?Tech | No | $1 | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$2 |
 Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?Politics | No | $3 | 80¢ | 76¢ | -$0 |
 Will Đuro Macut win the next Serbia presidential election?Politics | No | $3 | 80¢ | 83¢ | +$0 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the TX-07 House seat?Politics | No | $3 | 6.0¢ | 6.5¢ | +$0 |
 Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?Mentions | Yes | $3 | 66¢ | 64¢ | -$0 |
 Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?Politics | No | $3 | 82¢ | 90¢ | +$0 |
 Will Seattle have between 0.5 and 1 inches of precipitation in July?Weather | No | $3 | 87¢ | 93¢ | +$0 |
 Will Amir Hassan be the MI-08 Republican nominee?Politics | Yes | $3 | 92¢ | 98¢ | +$0 |
 Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1510 by December 31?Tech | No | $3 | 15¢ | 14¢ | -$0 |
 Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting?Politics | Yes | $2 | 41¢ | 69¢ | +$1 |
| Will the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 8%?Politics | No | $2 | 54¢ | 62¢ | +$0 |
| Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 300k and 350k?Culture | No | $3 | 84¢ | 69¢ | -$1 |
 Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto | No | $2 | 59¢ | 84¢ | +$1 |
| Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?Tech | No | $1 | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?Tech | No | $2 | 78¢ | 83¢ | +$0 |
| Will CopperTech Metals' market cap be between $3B and $3.6B at market close on IPO day?Tech | No | $1 | 52¢ | 99¢ | +$1 |
| Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?Politics | No | $2 | 69¢ | 76¢ | +$0 |
 Will Scott Timko win the special election to fill the Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 12 seat?Politics | Yes | $2 | 85¢ | 79¢ | -$0 |
 Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | No | $2 | 60¢ | 80¢ | +$1 |
 Will Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar win the next Lima mayoral elections?Politics | Yes | $2 | 8.8¢ | 11¢ | +$0 |
| Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 52¢ | 76¢ | +$1 |
 Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $3 | 68¢ | 56¢ | -$0 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?Economy | Yes | $3 | 68¢ | 47¢ | -$1 |
 Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $1 | 3.1¢ | 9.6¢ | +$1 |
| Will Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Mentions | Yes | $2 | 69¢ | 69¢ | -$0 |
| Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $1 | 27¢ | 47¢ | +$1 |
 Benedict Wong as Wong?Culture | No | $2 | 36¢ | 30¢ | -$0 |
 Will Federação União Progressista (UPB) hold the most seats in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election?Politics | No | $2 | 89¢ | 79¢ | -$0 |
 Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?Crypto | No | $2 | 55¢ | 57¢ | +$0 |
| Visa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 8.5%-9.5%?Finance | Yes | $2 | 47¢ | 43¢ | -$0 |
 Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $2 | 57¢ | 57¢ | -$0 |
| Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Politics | Yes | $1 | 37¢ | 57¢ | +$1 |
| Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $454,000 and $462,000 on September 30?Economy | No | $2 | 85¢ | 84¢ | -$0 |
 Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics | No | $2 | 76¢ | 66¢ | -$0 |
 Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Politics | No | $2 | 75¢ | 65¢ | -$0 |
| Mastercard (MA) Q2 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 10.5%-11.5%?Finance | No | $2 | 73¢ | 47¢ | -$1 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 14, 2026?Politics | No | $2 | 89¢ | 84¢ | -$0 |
 Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics | No | $2 | 40¢ | 37¢ | -$0 |
 Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?Politics | No | $2 | 9.8¢ | 6.7¢ | -$1 |
 Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $2 | 55¢ | 33¢ | -$1 |
 Will Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino win the next Lima mayoral elections?Politics | Yes | $1 | 6.6¢ | 6.4¢ | -$0 |
| Will Jimmy Gomez win the CA-34 House seat?Politics | Yes | $1 | 43¢ | 42¢ | -$0 |
| Will "The Diplomat" win Emmys 2026: Outstanding drama series?Culture | Yes | $2 | 4.8¢ | 2.5¢ | -$1 |
 Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $125 in July?Finance | No | $1 | 92¢ | 98¢ | +$0 |
 Will Helena Foulkes win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?Politics | No | $1 | 13¢ | 12¢ | -$0 |
| Will Trump say "Stop Calling Me" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?Mentions | Yes | $1 | 40¢ | 42¢ | +$0 |
| Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?Mentions | No | $1 | 35¢ | 37¢ | +$0 |
 Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?Politics | No | $1 | 51¢ | 51¢ | +$0 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Tech | No | $1 | 46¢ | 34¢ | -$0 |
| Will KLA Corp (KLAC) Q4 total revenues be above $3.8B?Finance | Yes | $2 | 9.0¢ | 5.4¢ | -$1 |
 Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be between 160 and 170?Finance | Yes | $1 | 35¢ | 27¢ | -$0 |
| Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?Mentions | Yes | $1 | 42¢ | 41¢ | -$0 |
| Will the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be 5:00-6:59?Other sports | NoResolved | $2 | 66¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $49 Week of July 20 2026?Finance | YesResolved | $2 | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will Dharmendra Pradhan be out as Minister of Education of India by July 31?Politics | NoResolved | $3 | 71¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $780 Week of July 20 2026?Finance | YesResolved | $0 | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will Tadej Pogačar be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?Other sports | YesResolved | $0 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will Dharmendra Pradhan be out as Minister of Education of India by September 30?Politics | NoResolved | $1 | 61¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $0 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will the winner of the 2026 Tour De France be from Belgium?Other sports | YesResolved | $0 | 4.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
 Will HOTU Qualify to LAN BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?eSports | YesResolved | $8 | 40¢ | 0.0¢ | -$8 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $55 Week of July 20 2026?Finance | YesResolved | $0 | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
 Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 Week of July 20 2026?Finance | YesResolved | $1 | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $710 Week of July 20 2026?Finance | YesResolved | $1 | 3.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 Week of July 20 2026?Finance | YesResolved | $4 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of July 20 2026?Finance | YesResolved | $3 | 66¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
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