manchot

Predicting since Jun 2025926 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $2.4K on Politics markets since Jun 2025.

Right now: $1.4K riding on Maine Senate Election Winner.

Biggest hit: +$4.0K on Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?.

All-time PnL

+$0

This year

+$0

Last 30 days

+$0

Portfolio value

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle

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Profit over time

What they are betting now

Market	Side	Stake	Entry	Now	PnL
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics	Yes	$1.4K	53¢	67¢	+$341
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?Politics	No	$875	70¢	87¢	+$206
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics	Yes	$280	14¢	38¢	+$473
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Politics	Yes	$500	52¢	69¢	+$170
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics	Yes	$440	44¢	44¢	-$5
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics	No	$314	79¢	95¢	+$62
Bang Si-hyuk charged in 2026?Politics	No	$214	37¢	46¢	+$53
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics	Yes	$202	51¢	57¢	+$25
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics	Yes	$201	82¢	87¢	+$11
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Economy	No	$205	79¢	80¢	+$2
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics	No	$136	31¢	42¢	+$48
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Politics	Yes	$177	75¢	75¢	+$0
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Politics	Yes	$200	11¢	9.5¢	-$27
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Politics	Yes	$183	41¢	36¢	-$21
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Politics	Yes	$103	56¢	88¢	+$58
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?Politics	Yes	$153	66¢	69¢	+$6
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics	Yes	$200	33¢	26¢	-$42
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics	Yes	$109	79¢	80¢	+$2
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?Politics	Yes	$50	4.0¢	4.9¢	+$11
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics	No	$24	44¢	45¢	+$0
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?NBA	Yes	$1.2K	46¢	0.1¢	-$1.2K

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics+$2.4K

Tech+$1.3K

NBA-$1.2K

Tennis+$719

Other+$181

Crypto-$137

NHL+$107

Other sports-$92

NFL-$88

Culture-$75

Mentions+$46

UFC / MMA-$21

Biggest hit

+$4.0K

Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?

Toughest beat

-$2.0K

Will Erna Solberg become the next Prime Minister of Norway?

Recent moves

Bought Yes · Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$147s ago
Bought Yes · Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$17725m ago
Sold No · Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?$17952m ago
Bought No · Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$20753m ago
Sold Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?$20754m ago
Bought Yes · US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$6812h ago
Bought Yes · US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$512h ago
Bought Yes · US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$112h ago
Sold Yes · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$7412h ago
Bought Yes · US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$611d ago
Bought Yes · US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$71d ago
Bought Yes · US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$11d ago