 Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Weather | Yes | $530 | 50¢ | 77¢ | +$279 |
 Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?Politics | Yes | $603 | 31¢ | 22¢ | -$190 |
 Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $251 | 63¢ | 81¢ | +$71 |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics | Yes | $241 | 65¢ | 75¢ | +$35 |
 Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by September 15?Tech | No | $148 | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$52 |
 Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?Politics | Yes | $127 | 71¢ | 96¢ | +$46 |
 Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics | Yes | $138 | 35¢ | 36¢ | +$6 |
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Politics | No | $107 | 63¢ | 85¢ | +$37 |
 Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Tech | Yes | $174 | 69¢ | 56¢ | -$34 |
 US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics | No | $101 | 63¢ | 85¢ | +$34 |
 Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?Politics | Yes | $168 | 45¢ | 34¢ | -$41 |
 Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?Tech | Yes | $114 | 16¢ | 18¢ | +$11 |
 Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics | Yes | $230 | 21¢ | 11¢ | -$109 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $90 | 64¢ | 82¢ | +$25 |
 OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech | Yes | $180 | 30¢ | 18¢ | -$75 |
 Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture | Yes | $92 | 46¢ | 53¢ | +$13 |
 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy | Yes | $75 | 19¢ | 24¢ | +$20 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $81 | 75¢ | 83¢ | +$8 |
 Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech | Yes | $159 | 58¢ | 32¢ | -$70 |
 Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $69 | 69¢ | 78¢ | +$9 |
 Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?Crypto | No | $67 | 67¢ | 76¢ | +$9 |
 Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?Crypto | Yes | $72 | 36¢ | 36¢ | -$1 |
 Will Arknights: Endfield win Best Mobile Game at the 2026 Game Awards?Other sports | Yes | $100 | 55¢ | 38¢ | -$32 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Tech | No | $45 | 45¢ | 61¢ | +$16 |
 Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech | No | $53 | 44¢ | 49¢ | +$5 |
 Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?Politics | No | $90 | 56¢ | 35¢ | -$34 |
 Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto | No | $51 | 42¢ | 42¢ | +$0 |
 Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics | Yes | $44 | 55¢ | 56¢ | +$1 |
 Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics | Yes | $162 | 19¢ | 5.1¢ | -$118 |
 Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Politics | No | $53 | 44¢ | 36¢ | -$10 |
 Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?Tech | No | $54 | 55¢ | 43¢ | -$12 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $260 | 26¢ | 4.0¢ | -$221 |
 Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?Tech | Yes | $31 | 78¢ | 89¢ | +$4 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics | Yes | $70 | 35¢ | 18¢ | -$35 |
 Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics | Yes | $28 | 71¢ | 84¢ | +$5 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Tech | No | $38 | 38¢ | 31¢ | -$7 |
 Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 by December 31, 2026?Crypto | Yes | $100 | 21¢ | 6.5¢ | -$69 |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Politics | Yes | $51 | 34¢ | 20¢ | -$22 |
 Will Randolfe win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amapá Senate election?Politics | Yes | $31 | 52¢ | 44¢ | -$5 |
 Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics | Yes | $20 | 33¢ | 44¢ | +$6 |
 Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics | Yes | $99 | 7.4¢ | 1.6¢ | -$78 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics | No | $18 | 91¢ | 95¢ | +$1 |
 Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on October 31, 2026?Tech | No | $13 | 64¢ | 93¢ | +$6 |
 US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?Politics | Yes | $12 | 47¢ | 44¢ | -$1 |
 Alofoke forms party in DR by June 30, 2027?Politics | Yes | $10 | 50¢ | 52¢ | +$0 |
 Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy | No | $14 | 70¢ | 47¢ | -$5 |
 Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $117 | 23¢ | 1.6¢ | -$110 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Politics | Yes | $29 | 14¢ | 3.5¢ | -$22 |
 Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be between 30k and 40k?Culture | Yes | $10 | 34¢ | 25¢ | -$3 |
 Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?Politics | Yes | $23 | 39¢ | 11¢ | -$17 |
| Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be less than 30k?Culture | No | $11 | 57¢ | 28¢ | -$6 |
 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $43 | 12¢ | 1.6¢ | -$38 |
 Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?Politics | Yes | $7 | 10¢ | 7.5¢ | -$2 |
 Will Harrison Ford – “Shrinking” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series?Culture | NoResolved | $2 | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$2 |
 Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Politics | No | $3 | 57¢ | 81¢ | +$1 |
 Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech | Yes | $1 | 0.5¢ | 0.9¢ | +$1 |
 Will GameStop acquire eBay?Finance | Yes | $2 | 8.0¢ | 8.5¢ | +$0 |
 Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?Politics | Yes | $3 | 13¢ | 7.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?Politics | Yes | $6 | 4.2¢ | 0.9¢ | -$5 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $187 | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | -$187 |
 Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Colombia?World Cup | YesResolved | $16 | 2.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$16 |
 Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $131 | 56¢ | 0.0¢ | -$131 |
 Will Warsh say "Gold" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Mentions | YesResolved | $8 | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$8 |
| Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 England?World Cup | YesResolved | $38 | 5.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$38 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Politics | YesResolved | $14 | 2.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$14 |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $160 | 80¢ | 0.0¢ | -$160 |
 Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 9?Weather | YesResolved | $10 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $4 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
| Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Ecuador?World Cup | YesResolved | $72 | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$72 |
| Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Colombia?World Cup | YesResolved | $23 | 3.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$23 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Finance | NoResolved | $280 | 70¢ | 0.0¢ | -$280 |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?World Cup | YesResolved | $50 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | -$50 |
| Will Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?World Cup | YesResolved | $308 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | -$308 |
 Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 19?Weather | YesResolved | $7 | 38¢ | 0.0¢ | -$7 |
| Will Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?World Cup | NoResolved | $151 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | -$151 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Politics | YesResolved | $16 | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$16 |
 Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in August?Finance | NoResolved | $102 | 51¢ | 0.0¢ | -$102 |
 Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?Politics | NoResolved | $83 | 75¢ | 0.0¢ | -$83 |
 UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)UFC / MMA | Conor McGregorResolved | $103 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | -$103 |
| Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Switzerland?World Cup | YesResolved | $80 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | -$80 |
 Heat vs. MagicNBA | HeatResolved | $1.0K | 51¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1.0K |
| England vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5World Cup | UnderResolved | $15 | 75¢ | 0.0¢ | -$15 |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $66 | 33¢ | 0.0¢ | -$66 |
 Will Trump say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" during cabinet meeting?Mentions | YesResolved | $50 | 71¢ | 0.0¢ | -$50 |
| Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Ecuador?World Cup | YesResolved | $45 | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$45 |
| Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?World Cup | YesResolved | $135 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | -$135 |
 Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Culture | NoResolved | $96 | 80¢ | 0.0¢ | -$96 |
 Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?Soccer (other) | YesResolved | $4 | 4.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
| Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to AdvanceWorld Cup | SenegalResolved | $297 | 59¢ | 0.0¢ | -$297 |
 Will "72 Hours" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?Culture | NoResolved | $102 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | -$102 |
 TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue DevilsCollege Hoops | TCU Horned FrogsResolved | $72 | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | -$72 |
 Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?Politics | YesResolved | $9 | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9 |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to AdvanceWorld Cup | MexicoResolved | $283 | 49¢ | 0.0¢ | -$283 |
| Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?World Cup | YesResolved | $38 | 7.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$38 |
| Will "DTF St. Louis" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?Culture | YesResolved | $10 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5MLB | OverResolved | $22 | 55¢ | 0.0¢ | -$22 |
| Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to ScoreWorld Cup | YesResolved | $203 | 58¢ | 0.0¢ | -$203 |
| Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?World Cup | YesResolved | $520 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | -$520 |
| Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Belgium?World Cup | YesResolved | $22 | 3.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$22 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $4 | 1.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
Sold No · Fed rate hike in 2026?$1691d ago
Sold No · Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1581d ago
Sold Yes · LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?$646d ago
Sold No · LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?$376d ago