 Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $1.7K | 79¢ | 88¢ | +$187 |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Tech | Yes | $1.8K | 68¢ | 59¢ | -$230 |
 Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?Politics | No | $1.3K | 80¢ | 95¢ | +$237 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?Tech | No | $747 | 76¢ | 90¢ | +$142 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?Tech | No | $813 | 90¢ | 95¢ | +$48 |
 Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $762 | 88¢ | 98¢ | +$87 |
 Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $482 | 11¢ | 19¢ | +$348 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $815 | 63¢ | 61¢ | -$33 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $524 | 28¢ | 35¢ | +$129 |
 Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $530 | 93¢ | 98¢ | +$23 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $454 | 87¢ | 95¢ | +$45 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $164 | 29¢ | 88¢ | +$330 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $260 | 52¢ | 89¢ | +$187 |
 Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?Politics | Yes | $457 | 46¢ | 43¢ | -$28 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $492 | 83¢ | 72¢ | -$69 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $208 | 34¢ | 63¢ | +$178 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $149 | 8.5¢ | 22¢ | +$237 |
 Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $277 | 93¢ | 99¢ | +$18 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?Politics | Yes | $265 | 34¢ | 35¢ | +$6 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $356 | 48¢ | 36¢ | -$91 |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $227 | 82¢ | 95¢ | +$38 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $86 | 6.3¢ | 19¢ | +$178 |
 Will Russia capture Kindrativka by September 30?Politics | No | $173 | 68¢ | 87¢ | +$49 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $169 | 63¢ | 79¢ | +$43 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30?Politics | Yes | $1.1K | 32¢ | 6.0¢ | -$886 |
 Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $326 | 54¢ | 30¢ | -$144 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?Tech | Yes | $115 | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$51 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $995 | 56¢ | 9.0¢ | -$836 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $73 | 7.0¢ | 11¢ | +$37 |
 Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $69 | 81¢ | 98¢ | +$14 |
 Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | No | $76 | 90¢ | 96¢ | +$4 |
| Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $66 | 91¢ | 99¢ | +$6 |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $23 | 11¢ | 33¢ | +$48 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $38 | 47¢ | 86¢ | +$31 |
 Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $47 | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$7 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Tech | Yes | $29 | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$21 |
 Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $44 | 88¢ | 98¢ | +$5 |
 Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $30 | 59¢ | 94¢ | +$17 |
 Will Alibaba have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $35 | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$2 |
 Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?Politics | No | $27 | 61¢ | 74¢ | +$6 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $120 | 29¢ | 7.4¢ | -$89 |
 Will Meituan have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $21 | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $118 | 54¢ | 9.2¢ | -$97 |
 Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech | No | $20 | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
 Will Microsoft have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?Tech | No | $19 | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
 Will ByteDance have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech | No | $20 | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
 Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30?Politics | No | $10 | 64¢ | 96¢ | +$5 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $15 | 55¢ | 46¢ | -$3 |
 Will Amazon have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech | No | $10 | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $27 | 27¢ | 8.5¢ | -$18 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $10 | 45¢ | 22¢ | -$5 |
| Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech | No | $4 | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
 Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $3 | 80¢ | 90¢ | +$0 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $0 | 1.6¢ | 9.0¢ | +$1 |
 Will Meta have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Tech | No | $1 | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by April 30?Politics | YesResolved | $3 | 3.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $13 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | -$13 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by May 31?Politics | YesResolved | $3 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will Mistral have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $0 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by April 30?Politics | YesResolved | $95 | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | -$95 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by April 30?Politics | YesResolved | $600 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | -$600 |
 Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech | YesResolved | $10 | 7.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will any other model be the best AI model on July 18, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 1.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech | YesResolved | $98 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | -$98 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on July 18, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 0.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech | YesResolved | $41 | 43¢ | 0.0¢ | -$41 |
| Will Mistral have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $3 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30?Tech | YesResolved | $0 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
Cashed out Yes · Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$05h ago