 NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30?Politics | Yes | $93 | 88¢ | 86¢ | -$2 |
 Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 11, 2026?Politics | No | $51 | 95¢ | 94¢ | -$0 |
| NATO downs another Russian drone by September 15?Politics | Yes | $24 | 84¢ | 90¢ | +$2 |
 GPT-7 released by December 31, 2027?Tech | No | $31 | 22¢ | 17¢ | -$8 |
 Claude 6 released by December 31, 2027?Tech | No | $27 | 16¢ | 14¢ | -$4 |
 Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $22 | 11¢ | 11¢ | -$1 |
 Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $18 | 36¢ | 34¢ | -$1 |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $16 | 26¢ | 27¢ | +$0 |
 Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Tech | Yes | $16 | 32¢ | 32¢ | -$0 |
| Claude 6 released by June 30, 2027?Tech | No | $30 | 43¢ | 23¢ | -$14 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $18 | 14¢ | 11¢ | -$5 |
 Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech | No | $16 | 32¢ | 27¢ | -$3 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $23 | 21¢ | 12¢ | -$9 |
 Meta's Watermelon released by November 30, 2026?Tech | No | $5 | 7.5¢ | 14¢ | +$4 |
 Russia strikes another vessel in the Black Sea by August 21, 2026?Politics | Yes | $8 | 81¢ | 84¢ | +$0 |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $9 | 43¢ | 41¢ | -$1 |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $10 | 16¢ | 13¢ | -$2 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $8 | 42¢ | 39¢ | -$1 |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech | No | $7 | 31¢ | 34¢ | +$0 |
 Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $10 | 24¢ | 19¢ | -$2 |
 Israel military action against Yemen by September 30?Politics | Yes | $10 | 5.1¢ | 3.6¢ | -$3 |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $7 | 11¢ | 12¢ | +$0 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $6 | 28¢ | 28¢ | -$0 |
| Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech | No | $5 | 27¢ | 28¢ | +$0 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $6 | 15¢ | 11¢ | -$2 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?Tech | No | $5 | 8.8¢ | 8.3¢ | -$0 |
 Z.ai matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?Tech | Yes | $4 | 8.0¢ | 7.5¢ | -$0 |
 Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $5 | 4.7¢ | 3.5¢ | -$1 |
 Sam Altman signs the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30?Tech | Yes | $4 | 6.0¢ | 5.0¢ | -$1 |
 US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?Politics | Yes | $3 | 6.0¢ | 7.0¢ | +$1 |
 Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $5 | 7.6¢ | 5.0¢ | -$2 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech | No | $3 | 6.0¢ | 5.5¢ | -$0 |
 Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $7 | 9.7¢ | 3.9¢ | -$4 |
 Meta's Watermelon released by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $3 | 4.5¢ | 4.3¢ | -$0 |
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $3 | 16¢ | 13¢ | -$1 |
 Astra removed from public access by October 31?Tech | Yes | $2 | 12¢ | 14¢ | +$0 |
| Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $4 | 20¢ | 9.5¢ | -$2 |
 Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by September 30?Tech | Yes | $2 | 6.0¢ | 5.5¢ | -$0 |
| Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $2 | 10¢ | 6.9¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by September 13, 2026?Politics | Yes | $1 | 2.0¢ | 1.8¢ | -$0 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $1 | 6.0¢ | 5.5¢ | -$0 |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $3 | 13¢ | 5.5¢ | -$2 |
 Iran successfully targets shipping on July 17?Politics | YesResolved | $11 | 94¢ | 0.0¢ | -$11 |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on August 13, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $192 | 83¢ | 0.0¢ | -$192 |
| Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $10 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $99 | 65¢ | 0.0¢ | -$99 |
 Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $0 | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Iran successfully targets shipping on August 31, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $24 | 46¢ | 0.0¢ | -$24 |
 Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $40 | 51¢ | 0.0¢ | -$40 |
Bought Yes · Amazon matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?$012m ago