← Whale Watch

OneBadBet

Predicting since Oct 20241,447 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Down $21K on Politics markets since Oct 2024.

Right now: $2.3K riding on Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?.

Biggest hit: +$8.3K on Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?PoliticsNo$2.3K91¢92¢+$13
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?PoliticsNo$1.9K93¢96¢+$61
Will GameStop acquire eBay?FinanceNo$1.7K86¢88¢+$25
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?PoliticsYes$1.6K79¢82¢+$65
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?PoliticsYes$1.0K69¢79¢+$149
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?PoliticsNo$97596¢96¢+$1
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?PoliticsNo$93293¢95¢+$13
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?PoliticsNo$91992¢93¢+$11
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?PoliticsNo$85193¢99¢+$57
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?PoliticsNo$92292¢88¢-$42
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?PoliticsNo$80480¢81¢+$1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?FinanceNo$74499¢100¢+$4
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$69698¢100¢+$13
Iran Nuke before 2027?PoliticsNo$69894¢95¢+$4
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?PoliticsNo$64195¢100¢+$34
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?PoliticsNo$57477¢88¢+$82
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?PoliticsNo$58992¢92¢-$3
Cuban regime falls in 2026?PoliticsNo$57884¢82¢-$13
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?PoliticsNo$51996¢97¢+$5
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$49599¢99¢+$2
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?PoliticsYes$45691¢96¢+$22
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$47094¢94¢-$3
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$48595¢83¢-$64
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?PoliticsNo$37276¢77¢+$2
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$30084¢88¢+$12
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?PoliticsYes$38382¢67¢-$71
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?PoliticsNo$28796¢96¢+$1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in July?FinanceNo$24598¢100¢+$4
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?PoliticsYes$28413¢12¢-$35
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?PoliticsNo$22992¢99¢+$19
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?PoliticsNo$24397¢99¢+$5
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?PoliticsNo$22791¢98¢+$17
Hurupay FDV above $10M one day after launch?CryptoNo$11778¢79¢+$1
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027PoliticsYes$6013¢24¢+$53
Hurupay FDV above $20M one day after launch?CryptoNo$13391¢70¢-$31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?PoliticsYes$10030¢28¢-$7
Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch?CryptoNo$8895¢95¢+$1
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsNo$7878¢83¢+$5
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$7699¢99¢+$1
Hurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch?CryptoNo$2594¢94¢+$0
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?PoliticsNo$2495¢97¢+$0
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?PoliticsYes$1442¢47¢+$2
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 105m and 115m?CultureYesResolved$6727¢0.0¢-$67
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?NBAYesResolved$5812¢0.0¢-$58
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$2684¢0.0¢-$26
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?GolfNoResolved$3030¢0.0¢-$30
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$4545¢0.0¢-$45
Will Donovan Clingan lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?NBAYesResolved$20.7¢0.0¢-$2
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?TechYesResolved$166.1¢0.0¢-$16
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?PoliticsNoResolved$63.0¢0.0¢-$6
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?NBAYesResolved$6726¢0.0¢-$67
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?PoliticsNoResolved$1.4K85¢0.0¢-$1.4K
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?PoliticsYesResolved$7332¢0.0¢-$73
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$131.3¢0.0¢-$13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?FinanceYesResolved$91.9¢0.0¢-$9
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?NBANoResolved$16475¢0.0¢-$164
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$285.6¢0.0¢-$28
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)UFC / MMAKhamzat ChimaevResolved$41783¢0.0¢-$417
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$400.4¢0.0¢-$40
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$100.1¢0.0¢-$10
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$200.2¢0.0¢-$20
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$60.6¢0.0¢-$6
Will Stripe’s market cap be between $120B and $140B at market close on IPO day?FinanceYesResolved$49.0¢0.0¢-$4
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$295.8¢0.0¢-$29
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?TechNoResolved$121.6¢0.0¢-$12
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$91.8¢0.0¢-$9
Will Graham Platner drop out before the Midterms?PoliticsNoResolved$246.0¢0.0¢-$24
Will Benoît Saint Denis fight Paddy Pimblett next?UFC / MMANoResolved$14.0¢0.0¢-$1
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$51.0¢0.0¢-$5
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$161.6¢0.0¢-$16
Will Trump visit China by March 31?PoliticsYesResolved$34068¢0.0¢-$340
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?FinanceYesResolved$92.3¢0.0¢-$9
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Trail Blazers NBABlazersResolved$231.7¢0.0¢-$23
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$244.7¢0.0¢-$24
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?PoliticsYesResolved$103.3¢0.0¢-$10
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)NBAHawksResolved$5253¢0.0¢-$52
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?PoliticsNoResolved$989.9¢0.0¢-$98
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?NBAYesResolved$87.5¢0.0¢-$8
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?NBAYesResolved$664.7¢0.0¢-$66
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?PoliticsYesResolved$19964¢0.0¢-$199
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?TechNoResolved$33894¢0.0¢-$338
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?PoliticsNoResolved$4297¢0.0¢-$42
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$23535¢0.0¢-$235
Will Trump visit China by May 15?PoliticsNoResolved$121.0¢0.0¢-$12
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$300.3¢0.0¢-$30
76ers vs. CelticsNBACelticsResolved$8787¢0.0¢-$87

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics-$21K
Mentions-$2.3K
Culture+$849
Tech-$682
UFC / MMA+$409
NFL+$295
World Cup-$263
NBA+$167
Crypto+$119
Tennis+$115
Economy+$60
MLB+$56
Biggest hit
+$8.3K
Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump?
Toughest beat
-$16K
Will Biden pardon Fauci?

Recent moves

  • Sold Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$39219h ago
  • Sold No · Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?$211d ago
  • Sold No · Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?$121d ago
  • Sold No · Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?$1061d ago
  • Sold No · Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?$1381d ago
  • Sold No · Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?$601d ago
  • Sold No · Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?$11d ago
  • Sold No · Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?$11d ago
  • Sold No · Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?$11d ago
  • Sold No · Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?$11d ago
  • Sold No · Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?$11d ago
  • Sold No · Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?$3981d ago