| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?Tech | Yes | $824 | 82¢ | 84¢ | +$18 |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $555 | 73¢ | 71¢ | -$18 |
| Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?Soccer (other) | Yes | $615 | 83¢ | 69¢ | -$105 |
 Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Politics | Yes | $501 | 73¢ | 73¢ | +$3 |
 Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics | Yes | $507 | 67¢ | 67¢ | -$5 |
| Will Rhea Seehorn – “Pluribus” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a drama series?Culture | Yes | $450 | 82¢ | 81¢ | -$8 |
 Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of August 2026?Tech | Yes | $400 | 79¢ | 87¢ | +$41 |
 Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Formula 1 | Yes | $354 | 79¢ | 86¢ | +$30 |
 Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Politics | No | $310 | 77¢ | 77¢ | -$2 |
 Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?Politics | No | $250 | 77¢ | 80¢ | +$10 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Tech | No | $360 | 77¢ | 56¢ | -$102 |
 Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Formula 1 | Yes | $199 | 61¢ | 75¢ | +$47 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Tech | No | $290 | 71¢ | 57¢ | -$58 |
| Will “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding drama series?Culture | Yes | $200 | 85¢ | 90¢ | +$12 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics | Yes | $200 | 83¢ | 87¢ | +$8 |
 Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics | No | $200 | 80¢ | 82¢ | +$6 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?Tech | Yes | $200 | 70¢ | 69¢ | -$1 |
| Will “The Traitors” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series?Culture | Yes | $219 | 76¢ | 61¢ | -$45 |
 Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?Politics | Yes | $210 | 84¢ | 69¢ | -$38 |
| Will Katherine LaNasa – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series?Culture | Yes | $150 | 69¢ | 75¢ | +$11 |
 Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics | Yes | $108 | 72¢ | 79¢ | +$10 |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Economy | Yes | $100 | 70¢ | 80¢ | +$14 |
 Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Economy | Yes | $100 | 70¢ | 77¢ | +$10 |
 Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Politics | Yes | $100 | 36¢ | 37¢ | +$3 |
| Will Jean Smart – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a comedy series?Culture | Yes | $100 | 91¢ | 91¢ | +$0 |
| Will Kate O’Flynn – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a comedy series?Culture | Yes | $85 | 49¢ | 57¢ | +$15 |
 Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026?Tech | Yes | $100 | 80¢ | 78¢ | -$4 |
| Will Matthew Rhys – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series?Culture | Yes | $65 | 83¢ | 87¢ | +$3 |
 Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture | Yes | $60 | 72¢ | 80¢ | +$6 |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics | Yes | $60 | 57¢ | 56¢ | -$1 |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $40 | 36¢ | 50¢ | +$15 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Tech | No | $50 | 32¢ | 35¢ | +$4 |
| Will Harrison Ford – “Shrinking” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series?Culture | Yes | $66 | 66¢ | 50¢ | -$16 |
 Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics | Yes | $50 | 39¢ | 38¢ | -$2 |
 Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics | No | $50 | 44¢ | 42¢ | -$3 |
 Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other) | No | $50 | 63¢ | 56¢ | -$5 |
 Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics | Yes | $45 | 36¢ | 34¢ | -$1 |
 Kash Patel out by December 31?Politics | No | $30 | 57¢ | 68¢ | +$6 |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $50 | 46¢ | 33¢ | -$15 |
| Will “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?Culture | Yes | $30 | 52¢ | 55¢ | +$2 |
| Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?La Liga | Yes | $30 | 51¢ | 54¢ | +$2 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics | Yes | $20 | 43¢ | 44¢ | +$0 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Politics | Yes | $20 | 59¢ | 60¢ | +$0 |
| Will Tom Pelphrey – “Task” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series?Culture | Yes | $30 | 45¢ | 30¢ | -$10 |
| Will Matthew Rhys – “The Beast In Me” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?Culture | Yes | $30 | 19¢ | 13¢ | -$10 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $20 | 65¢ | 64¢ | -$0 |
| Will Jack Grealish join Everton?Soccer (other) | Yes | $20 | 53¢ | 44¢ | -$4 |
 Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture | Yes | $20 | 15¢ | 9.5¢ | -$7 |
 Will Bodø/Glimt win Norway Eliteserien?Soccer (other) | No | $20 | 62¢ | 39¢ | -$8 |
| Will Claire Danes – “The Beast In Me” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?Culture | Yes | $19 | 7.2¢ | 3.9¢ | -$9 |
 Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Politics | Yes | $30 | 17¢ | 5.5¢ | -$20 |
| Will Shawn Hatosy – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series?Culture | Yes | $10 | 17¢ | 16¢ | -$1 |
| Will Marcus Rashford stay at Manchester United?Soccer (other) | Yes | $6 | 49¢ | 58¢ | +$1 |
 Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Politics | Yes | $30 | 61¢ | 12¢ | -$24 |
| Will Sepideh Moafi – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series?Culture | Yes | $10 | 7.9¢ | 4.0¢ | -$5 |
Cashed out Team Falcons PH · Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Falcons vs Team Falcons PH (BO3) - Mid Season Cup Group A$52h ago