← Whale Watch

singularityman

Predicting since Jan 2025536 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $32K on Politics markets since Jan 2025.

Right now: $9.4K riding on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?.

Biggest hit: +$15K on Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?PoliticsNo$9.4K49¢42¢-$1.4K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?PoliticsNo$7.4K86¢85¢-$146
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?PoliticsYes$4.4K42¢55¢+$1.2K
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?PoliticsNo$2.1K46¢75¢+$1.3K
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?PoliticsNo$3.1K74¢78¢+$188
Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026?PoliticsNo$91879¢91¢+$134
Another GTA VI trailer released by July 31?Other sportsNo$92790¢93¢+$31
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?PoliticsNo$87282¢81¢-$19
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?PoliticsNo$69573¢89¢+$146
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?PoliticsNo$77878¢83¢+$47
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?PoliticsNo$56163¢63¢-$8
Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$43657¢63¢+$45
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?PoliticsYes$55685¢71¢-$93
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?PoliticsYes$35315¢17¢+$28
Will Minnesota have the closest Senate race in 2026?PoliticsNo$32287¢99¢+$43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?PoliticsNo$39579¢73¢-$33
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$30079¢95¢+$58
Will Georgia have the closest Senate race in 2026?PoliticsNo$29487¢97¢+$36
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?PoliticsYes$32941¢34¢-$60
Will Bernard Cazeneuve be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsNo$24874¢79¢+$17
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?PoliticsNo$25681¢84¢+$6
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?PoliticsNo$24889¢89¢+$0
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsYes$24975¢74¢-$2
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?PoliticsYes$31153¢41¢-$75
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?PoliticsYes$20747¢50¢+$10
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?PoliticsYes$20379¢84¢+$12
Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?PoliticsNo$17247¢55¢+$31
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?PoliticsNo$21225¢23¢-$22
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?PoliticsNo$13853¢69¢+$41
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02?PoliticsYes$13173¢96¢+$41
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?PoliticsNo$12331¢42¢+$39
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?PoliticsNo$13288¢96¢+$11
RFK Jr. Out by December 31?PoliticsNo$11152¢64¢+$25
Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?PoliticsNo$12878¢83¢+$9
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?PoliticsNo$10870¢84¢+$22
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?PoliticsNo$14393¢80¢-$21
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?PoliticsNo$14494¢80¢-$22
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?PoliticsYes$15647¢34¢-$44
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?PoliticsNo$9583¢81¢-$3
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?PoliticsYes$13516¢11¢-$48
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?PoliticsNo$6758¢75¢+$19
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$7126¢32¢+$14
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?TechYes$7565¢74¢+$10
Will there be 5 or fewer UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?PoliticsYes$9221¢19¢-$9
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?CultureNo$5765¢90¢+$22
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by July 30?PoliticsNo$7491¢97¢+$5
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?PoliticsYes$35931¢6.5¢-$285
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?TechYes$6622¢24¢+$6
Todd Blanche disbarred or suspended in NY in 2026?PoliticsNo$6982¢80¢-$1
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?PoliticsYes$899.8¢7.4¢-$22
Will "Fatherland" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?CultureNo$8787¢64¢-$23
Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?PoliticsYes$6159¢57¢-$2
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?PoliticsYes$2458¢97¢+$17
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?PoliticsNo$3576¢84¢+$4
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?TechYes$2317¢24¢+$9
Will Pedro Pascal be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?CultureNo$3850¢39¢-$8
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?CultureYes$5733¢17¢-$28
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?PoliticsYes$928¢93¢+$20
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?PoliticsYes$3217¢14¢-$5
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?PoliticsNo$1913¢18¢+$7
Will James Clapper be arrested before 2027?PoliticsYes$913¢20¢+$5
Will Florida's "Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes" referendum pass in November 2026?PoliticsYes$723¢45¢+$7
Will Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?PoliticsNo$466.9¢1.9¢-$33
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?PoliticsYes$3524¢8.1¢-$23
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?PoliticsYes$715¢23¢+$4
Will Pete Hegseth be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?PoliticsYes$20.9¢5.3¢+$8
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?PoliticsNo$84.3¢4.2¢-$0
Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?PoliticsYes$33565¢1.1¢-$329
Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?PoliticsYes$614¢11¢-$1
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for LA Galaxy next?Soccer (other)Yes$33.4¢4.3¢+$1
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?PoliticsNo$5870¢3.8¢-$55
Will Alexander Hoffmann be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?PoliticsYes$10.5¢1.3¢+$2
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?PoliticsYesResolved$8212¢0.0¢-$82
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship?GolfYesResolved$46830¢0.0¢-$468
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?PoliticsYesResolved$22.5¢0.0¢-$2
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in August?EconomyYesResolved$933.0¢0.0¢-$93
Will there be 13 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?WeatherNoResolved$2317¢0.0¢-$23
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?EconomyYesResolved$1.9K33¢0.0¢-$1.9K
Meta releases Llama 5 in 2025?TechYesResolved$329.7¢0.0¢-$32
Will Callaita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?NFLYesResolved$11645¢0.0¢-$116
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?PoliticsNoResolved$2727¢0.0¢-$27
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in September?EconomyYesResolved$30819¢0.0¢-$308
Will Leavitt say "Tariff" during next White House press briefing?MentionsYesResolved$10476¢0.0¢-$104
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$102.2¢0.0¢-$10
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$466.0¢0.0¢-$46
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?PoliticsYesResolved$10231¢0.0¢-$102
Will anyone say "Tylenol" during South Park e6 s27?MentionsYesResolved$7248¢0.0¢-$72
Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 5 and 10 minutes long?PoliticsYesResolved$107.0¢0.0¢-$10
Will Boston have a white Christmas?WeatherYesResolved$1521¢0.0¢-$15
Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?CultureNoResolved$28621¢0.0¢-$286
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?PoliticsYesResolved$21056¢0.0¢-$210
Trump x Elon talk before August?PoliticsYesResolved$416.1¢0.0¢-$41
Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 15 and 20 minutes long?PoliticsYesResolved$3826¢0.0¢-$38
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31?PoliticsYesResolved$129.2¢0.0¢-$12
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?PoliticsYesResolved$73.0¢0.0¢-$7
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer?PoliticsNoResolved$27525¢0.0¢-$275
Will Nikita Bier be the next CEO of X?TechYesResolved$12.5¢0.0¢-$1
Will the December 2025 unemployment rate be ≤4.4%?EconomyNoResolved$6363¢0.0¢-$63
Will the Associated Press first call the 2025 New Jersey governor election before 8:00 PM ET on Nov 4 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$215.2¢0.0¢-$21
Will the Associated Press first call the 2025 NYC mayoral election between 9:00 PM and 9:59 PM ET on Nov 4 2025?PoliticsNoResolved$17639¢0.0¢-$176

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics+$32K
Boxing+$19K
Culture+$4.6K
Economy-$2.5K
Weather-$2.4K
Mentions+$1.4K
Tech+$1.4K
NFL-$1.1K
NBA-$1.0K
College Football+$860
Golf-$468
Other sports-$390
Biggest hit
+$15K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Toughest beat
-$4.3K
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?

Recent moves

  • Bought Yes · Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$3941m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$3297m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$11417m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$10521m ago
  • Bought Yes · Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$961h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$262h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$962h ago
  • Bought Yes · US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?$482h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$3082h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$2711h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$5311h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$5311h ago