 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?Politics | Yes | $1 | 0.6¢ | 5.8¢ | +$7 |
 Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?Tech | YesResolved | $13 | 55¢ | 0.0¢ | -$13 |
 Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | NoResolved | $1 | 3.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will the Guidance Clarity Act of 2025 (S.81) be signed into law by December 31 2025?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Economy | YesResolved | $1 | 0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $1 | 67¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Trump declares another national emergency by December 31?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Stephen Miran dissent the next Fed decision?Economy | NoResolved | $1 | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by March 31?Politics | NoResolved | $1 | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?Politics | YesResolved | $0 | 10.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
 Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?Politics | YesResolved | $0 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
 Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Politics | NoResolved | $0 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
 Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in October 2025 (LS)?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 2.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Evacuation of Tehran ordered in 2025?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Zootopia 2 be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?Culture | YesResolved | $2 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February?Crypto | YesResolved | $1 | 3.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?Politics | YesResolved | $0 | 1.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
 Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?Culture | AvatarResolved | $1 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ETCrypto | UpResolved | $2 | 49¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 Grammy Awards?Culture | NoResolved | $1 | 1.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Karl-Anthony Towns be traded this season?NBA | YesResolved | $1 | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?Politics | NoResolved | $1 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Starmer out by February 28, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Walt Disney Co (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | NoResolved | $1 | 10.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Economy | YesResolved | $1 | 3.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 8?Tech | NoResolved | $1 | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by February 14, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $0 | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
 Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 3.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Nexus FDV above $800M one day after launch?Crypto | YesResolved | $0 | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 9?Crypto | NoResolved | $1 | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Russia enter Sofiivka by February 28?Politics | NoResolved | $1 | 4.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 GPT-5.3 released by February 21, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $1 | 0.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?Tech | NoResolved | $1 | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: NovemberPolitics | NoResolved | $3 | 52¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will Send Help or Iron Lung gross more on their opening weekend?Culture | Iron LungResolved | $1 | 10.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Solana dip to $40 in February?Crypto | YesResolved | $1 | 3.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $700b on February 28?Economy | YesResolved | $1 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Politics | NoResolved | $1 | 3.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out EditionPolitics | NoResolved | $1 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
Cashed out No · Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?$151mo ago
Sold Yes · Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?$14mo ago
Cashed out Yes · Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?$14mo ago
Cashed out Yes · Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?$64mo ago
Cashed out No · Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$05mo ago