| Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?Tech | Yes | $233 | 39¢ | 85¢ | +$279 |
 Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?Economy | Yes | $320 | 67¢ | 80¢ | +$62 |
| Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Politics | Yes | $176 | 55¢ | 95¢ | +$128 |
 Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Economy | Yes | $269 | 76¢ | 79¢ | +$10 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $230 | 42¢ | 51¢ | +$45 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $245 | 45¢ | 44¢ | -$8 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?Tech | Yes | $67 | 28¢ | 97¢ | +$160 |
 Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $119 | 79¢ | 77¢ | -$4 |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $16 | 9.7¢ | 72¢ | +$99 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?Culture | Yes | $4 | 2.9¢ | 72¢ | +$99 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $76 | 64¢ | 81¢ | +$21 |
| Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?Tech | Yes | $59 | 9.7¢ | 13¢ | +$21 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?Economy | Yes | $125 | 26¢ | 16¢ | -$47 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Economy | Yes | $82 | 58¢ | 55¢ | -$5 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Economy | Yes | $66 | 19¢ | 19¢ | +$2 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $73 | 92¢ | 80¢ | -$9 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Economy | Yes | $48 | 34¢ | 44¢ | +$13 |
| Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?Culture | Yes | $41 | 75¢ | 99¢ | +$13 |
 No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $36 | 89¢ | 99¢ | +$4 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July?Economy | Yes | $34 | 29¢ | 34¢ | +$6 |
| Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?Politics | Yes | $6 | 14¢ | 83¢ | +$28 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?Tech | Yes | $8 | 22¢ | 94¢ | +$25 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?Economy | Yes | $28 | 24¢ | 26¢ | +$2 |
 No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $31 | 88¢ | 86¢ | -$1 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?Economy | Yes | $31 | 27¢ | 25¢ | -$2 |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $18 | 12¢ | 18¢ | +$9 |
| Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% or less in June?Economy | Yes | $27 | 76¢ | 73¢ | -$1 |
 Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting?Economy | Yes | $14 | 45¢ | 79¢ | +$11 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 260m and 280m?Culture | Yes | $31 | 22¢ | 17¢ | -$7 |
| Chicago Fire FC to score first vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC?MLS | Yes | $23 | 46¢ | 47¢ | +$0 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC to score first vs. Chicago Fire FC?MLS | Yes | $23 | 45¢ | 47¢ | +$1 |
 No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $21 | 77¢ | 82¢ | +$1 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $22 | 4.0¢ | 4.0¢ | -$0 |
 Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.7%?Economy | Yes | $7 | 25¢ | 69¢ | +$13 |
| Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?Culture | Yes | $2 | 10¢ | 98¢ | +$18 |
 Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Politics | Yes | $11 | 44¢ | 78¢ | +$8 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $36 | 30¢ | 16¢ | -$17 |
| Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Politics | Yes | $16 | 52¢ | 59¢ | +$2 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $4 | 5.0¢ | 19¢ | +$12 |
 Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?Politics | Yes | $10 | 34¢ | 51¢ | +$5 |
| Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?Politics | Yes | $7 | 37¢ | 74¢ | +$7 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?Culture | Yes | $2 | 7.5¢ | 49¢ | +$12 |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $49 | 31¢ | 8.5¢ | -$36 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on July 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $12 | 62¢ | 65¢ | +$1 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?Economy | Yes | $13 | 2.7¢ | 2.6¢ | -$1 |
| Will voter turnout be between 60% and 70% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Politics | Yes | $11 | 34¢ | 39¢ | +$2 |
| Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in July 2026?Tech | Yes | $11 | 54¢ | 62¢ | +$2 |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on July 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $8 | 5.0¢ | 7.1¢ | +$3 |
| Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?Politics | Yes | $84 | 26¢ | 3.5¢ | -$72 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 240m and 260m?Culture | Yes | $34 | 24¢ | 7.8¢ | -$23 |
 Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $9 | 62¢ | 74¢ | +$2 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?Economy | Yes | $3 | 13¢ | 48¢ | +$8 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $11 | 2.1¢ | 1.9¢ | -$1 |
| Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?Politics | Yes | $6 | 23¢ | 33¢ | +$2 |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $56 | 35¢ | 5.5¢ | -$47 |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 11?Politics | Yes | $5 | 18¢ | 29¢ | +$3 |
| Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in June?Economy | Yes | $3 | 10.0¢ | 24¢ | +$5 |
| Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?Tech | Yes | $5 | 26¢ | 38¢ | +$3 |
 Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?Economy | Yes | $5 | 28¢ | 42¢ | +$2 |
| Will 2–3 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?Politics | Yes | $5 | 51¢ | 75¢ | +$2 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?Economy | Yes | $3 | 13¢ | 32¢ | +$4 |
| Chicago Fire FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Neither team to score first?MLS | Yes | $3 | 5.0¢ | 14¢ | +$5 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 700m and 800m by August 31?Culture | Yes | $3 | 11¢ | 24¢ | +$4 |
| Will voter turnout be between 70% and 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Politics | Yes | $6 | 18¢ | 20¢ | +$1 |
 Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 20 and 23 inclusive?Politics | Yes | $6 | 30¢ | 31¢ | +$0 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 220m and 240m?Culture | Yes | $35 | 24¢ | 4.3¢ | -$29 |
 Will two people dissent the July Fed decision?Economy | Yes | $2 | 12¢ | 34¢ | +$4 |
| Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?Economy | Yes | $2 | 11¢ | 34¢ | +$4 |
| Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%?Politics | Yes | $1 | 24¢ | 98¢ | +$4 |
| Will CopperTech Metals not IPO before September 2026?Tech | Yes | $0 | 5.2¢ | 99¢ | +$6 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $5 | 1.0¢ | 1.1¢ | +$0 |
 Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?Economy | Yes | $7 | 73¢ | 56¢ | -$2 |
| Will voter turnout be between 50% and 60% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Politics | Yes | $9 | 28¢ | 18¢ | -$4 |
| Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?Politics | Yes | $6 | 28¢ | 28¢ | -$0 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $6 | 30¢ | 27¢ | -$1 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Politics | Yes | $10 | 40¢ | 21¢ | -$5 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $4 | 15¢ | 18¢ | +$1 |
| Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?Economy | Yes | $10 | 53¢ | 27¢ | -$5 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?Culture | Yes | $3 | 10¢ | 15¢ | +$1 |
 Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?Economy | Yes | $4 | 79¢ | 90¢ | +$1 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?Tech | Yes | $155 | 66¢ | 1.9¢ | -$150 |
| Will one person dissent the July Fed decision?Economy | Yes | $4 | 21¢ | 25¢ | +$1 |
| Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?Economy | Yes | $1 | 5.3¢ | 19¢ | +$3 |
| Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 9?Politics | Yes | $2 | 6.7¢ | 15¢ | +$2 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in July?Economy | Yes | $6 | 5.3¢ | 3.6¢ | -$2 |
| Will voter turnout be at least 80% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Politics | Yes | $2 | 5.0¢ | 13¢ | +$3 |
| Will voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?Politics | Yes | $4 | 11¢ | 13¢ | +$1 |
 Will White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?Politics | Yes | $2 | 37¢ | 81¢ | +$2 |
 Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics | Yes | $4 | 27¢ | 26¢ | -$0 |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 600m and 700m by August 31?Culture | Yes | $10 | 34¢ | 13¢ | -$6 |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $6 | 3.9¢ | 2.6¢ | -$2 |
| Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $4 | 25¢ | 26¢ | +$0 |
| Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more?Culture | Yes | $4 | 43¢ | 36¢ | -$1 |
| Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics | Yes | $3 | 20¢ | 23¢ | +$1 |
| Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?Economy | Yes | $7 | 23¢ | 12¢ | -$3 |
| Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.3%?Economy | Yes | $6 | 20¢ | 12¢ | -$2 |
| Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics | Yes | $3 | 23¢ | 23¢ | +$0 |
| Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?Politics | Yes | $2 | 49¢ | 64¢ | +$1 |
 Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?Economy | Yes | $4 | 35¢ | 32¢ | -$0 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.5% in July?Economy | Yes | $3 | 2.4¢ | 2.6¢ | +$0 |