← Whale Watch

The-Joker

Predicting since Oct 20251,976 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $11K on Culture markets since Oct 2025.

Right now: $30K riding on Fed Decision in July?.

Biggest hit: +$4.9K on Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$30K90¢80¢-$3.2K
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?CultureNo$5.7K100¢100¢-$3
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 86m and 92m?CultureYes$2.3K43¢83¢+$2.1K
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 30, 2026?TechNo$3.8K98¢99¢+$54
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?PoliticsNo$2.7K90¢95¢+$138
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?PoliticsNo$2.0K82¢92¢+$234
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?PoliticsYes$1.4K30¢38¢+$351
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?PoliticsNo$1.4K50¢63¢+$326
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?EconomyYes$1.1K45¢61¢+$371
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$1.1K88¢97¢+$116
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?TechYes$87684¢96¢+$131
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?EconomyYes$86362¢69¢+$96
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?PoliticsNo$68068¢95¢+$265
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?TechNo$89494¢86¢-$78
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 200m and 220m?CultureNo$70595¢97¢+$14
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?TechYes$54071¢85¢+$101
Will "Moana" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?CultureNo$50698¢100¢+$9
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?PoliticsNo$45296¢96¢+$1
Will "Minions & Monsters" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?CultureYes$24745¢80¢+$193
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?TechYes$22028¢52¢+$186
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?TechNo$26163¢90¢+$110
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$1.7K56¢12¢-$1.3K
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?PoliticsYes$23771¢98¢+$93
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?PoliticsNo$18018¢24¢+$55
Will "Moana" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?CultureYes$19268¢81¢+$35
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?TechYes$29924¢18¢-$73
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?TechNo$21999¢100¢+$2
Will Trump nationalize elections?PoliticsNo$17062¢81¢+$49
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?TechYes$26576¢56¢-$69
Will "Moana" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?CultureNo$16390¢99¢+$16
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?TechNo$11868¢81¢+$22
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?PoliticsNo$7871¢94¢+$25
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?TechYes$7924¢31¢+$23
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?TechNo$7777¢80¢+$3
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?TechNo$7267¢60¢-$8
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?TechYes$3978¢97¢+$10
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?TechYes$1886¢87¢+$0
Will "Minions & Monsters" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?CultureYes$10048¢4.0¢-$92

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Culture+$11K
Tech+$4.3K
Politics+$4.0K
NFL+$2.6K
Crypto+$800
Mentions-$713
Finance-$676
UFC / MMA-$669
Economy+$619
NBA-$271
Other sports-$214
Basketball (other)-$92
Biggest hit
+$4.9K
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?
Toughest beat
-$2.2K
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?

Recent moves

  • Bought No · Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$14h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?$947h ago
  • Bought No · Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$4527h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will "Moana" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?$178h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will "Moana" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?$1788h ago
  • Bought No · Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?$5.7K8h ago
  • Cashed out New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies AND Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) AND San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins$12110h ago
  • Bought UFC Fight Night: Ludovit Klein vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Prelims) AND Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Knutson AND Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals AND Valorant: G2 Esports vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega AND Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin AND Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5$1114h ago
  • Bought Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco Giants AND Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals AND San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins AND Estoril Open: Alexander Blockx vs Luciano Darderi AND Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Christopher O'Connell vs Andres Martin$1114h ago
  • Bought No · Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?$7814h ago
  • Bought No · Will "Moana" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?$50715h ago
  • Bought No · Will "Moana" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?$16415h ago