 Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Tech | Yes | $19 | 16¢ | 22¢ | +$6 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $19 | 9.0¢ | 11¢ | +$3 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech | Yes | $18 | 7.5¢ | 7.8¢ | +$1 |
 Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Tech | Yes | $19 | 30¢ | 20¢ | -$7 |
 Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $10 | 87¢ | 99¢ | +$1 |
| Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech | Yes | $20 | 10¢ | 5.3¢ | -$9 |
 Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by September 30?Politics | Yes | $20 | 10¢ | 5.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?Tech | Yes | $8 | 24¢ | 30¢ | +$2 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $5 | 35¢ | 63¢ | +$4 |
 Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?Tech | No | $5 | 54¢ | 78¢ | +$2 |
 Will Dune: Part Three win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture | Yes | $7 | 25¢ | 25¢ | -$0 |
 Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $5 | 70¢ | 98¢ | +$2 |
 Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?Tech | No | $5 | 34¢ | 44¢ | +$1 |
 Will François Hollande advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics | Yes | $10 | 11¢ | 6.7¢ | -$4 |
 Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $5 | 73¢ | 85¢ | +$1 |
 Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Music Video of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?Culture | Yes | $5 | 42¢ | 49¢ | +$1 |
 Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $5 | 68¢ | 69¢ | +$0 |
 Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Guam gubernatorial election?Politics | Yes | $5 | 68¢ | 69¢ | +$0 |
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Politics | Yes | $7 | 26¢ | 18¢ | -$2 |
 Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy | No | $14 | 25¢ | 8.5¢ | -$10 |
 Will Tom Holland be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?Tech | Yes | $7 | 20¢ | 13¢ | -$2 |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Politics | Yes | $5 | 29¢ | 28¢ | -$0 |
 US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics | Yes | $15 | 18¢ | 5.4¢ | -$11 |
 Will Drake release a new album by September 30?Culture | Yes | $15 | 13¢ | 3.9¢ | -$10 |
| Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?Tech | Yes | $5 | 13¢ | 11¢ | -$1 |
 Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Politics | Yes | $19 | 6.0¢ | 1.2¢ | -$15 |
 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics | Yes | $5 | 36¢ | 28¢ | -$1 |
 Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?Culture | No | $5 | 79¢ | 63¢ | -$1 |
 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics | No | $5 | 38¢ | 28¢ | -$1 |
 Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics | Yes | $5 | 52¢ | 38¢ | -$1 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Politics | Yes | $13 | 15¢ | 4.0¢ | -$9 |
 Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $8 | 30¢ | 13¢ | -$5 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $3 | 9.0¢ | 6.5¢ | -$1 |
 Will Chuck Norris be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?Tech | Yes | $14 | 30¢ | 4.5¢ | -$12 |
| Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?Tech | Yes | $2 | 16¢ | 14¢ | -$0 |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $5 | 54¢ | 14¢ | -$3 |
 Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Tech | Yes | $1 | 13¢ | 13¢ | -$0 |
 Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1?Culture | YesResolved | $15 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | -$15 |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $10 | 7.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Tech | NoResolved | $5 | 61¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Other sports | YesResolved | $10 | 6.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will any other model be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $14 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | -$14 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 27, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $9 | 9.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of August 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $14 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | -$14 |
 Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 180m?Culture | NoResolved | $3 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $0 | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | +$0 |
 Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 17m?Culture | YesResolved | $4 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
| Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $5 | 76¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will Kai and Speed have 90 or more total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?Culture | YesResolved | $5 | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $2 | 60¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
Sold No · Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?$56h ago
Sold Yes · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?$91d ago