← Whale Watch

keynesian.multiplier

Predicting since Feb 2026927 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $1.4K on Politics markets since Feb 2026.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Trump declassifies new UFO files by August 31?PoliticsYes$1680¢88¢+$1
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?PoliticsNo$1679¢81¢+$0
Will Guadalajara win the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?Soccer (other)No$1784¢79¢-$1
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?PoliticsYes$1682¢66¢-$3
Will Ed Case be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?PoliticsNo$1052¢50¢-$0
Will LeBron's next contract average $10M-$15M per year?NBANo$875¢100¢+$2
Will Paul Seixas finish top 3 in the 2026 Tour De France?Other sportsNo$545¢100¢+$5
Will Paul Seixas win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?OtherNo$554¢100¢+$5
Will Jasper Philipsen be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?Other sportsNo$881¢100¢+$2
Will hate that i made you love me – Ariana Grande be the top song for 2026?CultureNo$992¢100¢+$1
Will Risk It All – Bruno Mars be the top song in the US for 2026?CultureNo$991¢100¢+$1
Will Mark Lynch be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?PoliticsNo$1097¢99¢+$0
Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?TechNo$1096¢99¢+$0
Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?EconomyNo$995¢97¢+$0
Will Jarrett Keohokalole be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?PoliticsYes$944¢48¢+$1
Will Swim – BTS be the top song for 2026?CultureNo$766¢94¢+$3
Will PPI YoY be 6.0% or more in July?EconomyNo$991¢93¢+$0
Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?Soccer (other)No$998¢95¢-$0
Will Matthew Rhys – “The Beast In Me” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?CultureNo$987¢88¢+$0
Will ANSEM flip PUMP by December 31, 2027?CryptoNo$878¢87¢+$1
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?PoliticsYes$315¢45¢+$6
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Soccer (other)No$879¢84¢+$0
Criminal charges in Pfizer building structural failure by December 31?OtherYes$419¢42¢+$5
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election by at least 15%?PoliticsYes$882¢83¢+$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?TechYes$661¢81¢+$2
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?PoliticsNo$655¢80¢+$2
Will Trump pardon anyone by July 31?PoliticsNo$435¢78¢+$4
ICE Agent charged in Maine incident by August 31?PoliticsNo$880¢78¢-$0
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?PoliticsYes$734¢38¢+$1
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 57.0 in July?EconomyNo$771¢76¢+$0
Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?PoliticsNo$788¢92¢+$0
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?PoliticsNo$769¢78¢+$1
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?PoliticsYes$442¢74¢+$3
Will Hartzell Gray be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?PoliticsYes$552¢73¢+$2
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by October 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$655¢69¢+$1
USMCA extended in 2026?PoliticsNo$550¢67¢+$2
Will the Federal decree of 19 June 2026 on additional funding for the AVS through an increase in VAT be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?PoliticsYes$661¢64¢+$0
Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?OtherNo$553¢63¢+$1
Will there be between 31 and 33 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?PoliticsNo$881¢62¢-$2
Will Trump say "Fish" in July?MentionsNo$883¢61¢-$2
Will CDU win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?PoliticsNo$679¢80¢+$0
Criminal charges in Pfizer building structural failure by December 31?OtherNo$770¢59¢-$1
Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?PoliticsNo$882¢57¢-$2
Will Byron Buxton hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?MLBNo$545¢56¢+$1
Will James Wood hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?MLBYes$772¢55¢-$2
Will Biniam Girmay be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?Other sportsNo$473¢100¢+$1
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?TechNo$485¢100¢+$1
Will Jennifer Booker be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?PoliticsNo$599¢97¢-$0
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7.25B by July 31?FinanceYes$311¢18¢+$2
Will Trump say "Uranium" in July?MentionsYes$661¢48¢-$1
Will Clavicular visit Colombia in 2026?CultureYes$215¢46¢+$3
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in June?EconomyNo$655¢46¢-$1
ChatGPT Full Outage by August 31?TechYes$545¢45¢-$0
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in July?MentionsNo$353¢70¢+$1
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $7B by July 31?FinanceYes$327¢44¢+$2
Will Michael J. Fox – “Shrinking” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series?CultureNo$664¢40¢-$2
Coca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 3.5%-5%?FinanceYes$550¢39¢-$1
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in July?EconomyYes$330¢37¢+$1
Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$354¢69¢+$1
Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?PoliticsNo$735¢17¢-$4
Will Trump say "Snake" in July?MentionsYes$551¢33¢-$2
Will Trump say "Gulf of Trump" in July?MentionsYes$18.0¢33¢+$2
Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?PoliticsNo$475¢65¢-$1
Will Lucasfilm announce a new project at SDCC 2026?CultureNo$445¢40¢-$0
SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?PoliticsYes$220¢30¢+$1
Will Caesars Entertainment (CZR) beat quarterly earnings?FinanceYes$331¢30¢-$0
Will Hartzell Gray be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?PoliticsNo$545¢28¢-$2
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Restore receives 10%+ first preference votes?PoliticsYes$216¢27¢+$1
Will Jarrett Keohokalole be the HI-01 Democratic nominee?PoliticsNo$356¢53¢-$0
Will the Popular initiative ‘Yes to fair federal taxation for married couples – To finally put an end to marriage discrimination!’ be approved in Switzerland’s November 29, 2026 popular vote?PoliticsYes$216¢26¢+$1
Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?PoliticsNo$667¢29¢-$3
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?PoliticsNo$17.7¢34¢+$2
Will PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?FinanceNo$212¢13¢+$0
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by December 31?FinanceYes$222¢25¢+$0
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?CultureNo$441¢24¢-$2
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in July 2026 be between 2.1% and 2.3%?EconomyYes$440¢22¢-$2
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?PoliticsYes$435¢21¢-$1
Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?PoliticsNo$291¢88¢-$0
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?TechNo$225¢19¢-$1
Coca-Cola (KO) Q2 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth <3.5%?FinanceYes$220¢18¢-$0
Will there be between 34 and 36 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?PoliticsYes$328¢18¢-$1
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Soccer (other)Yes$113¢17¢+$0
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?PoliticsYes$435¢13¢-$3
Will Trump praise Allah again by July 31?PoliticsYes$224¢14¢-$1
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on July 31?PoliticsYes$117¢20¢+$0
Will Jordan Herrera be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?PoliticsYes$325¢14¢-$1
Will Trump say "Soaking Wet" in July?MentionsYes$769¢13¢-$6
Will Trump say "Breaking News" in July?MentionsYes$552¢13¢-$4
Will Woodward (WWD) beat quarterly earnings?FinanceNo$220¢11¢-$1
Will Trump say "Swan" in July?MentionsNo$172¢94¢+$0
Will Trump say "Chicken" in July?MentionsYes$331¢11¢-$2
Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?Soccer (other)Yes$15.9¢5.1¢-$0
Will Kai Stephens get second place in the Clacton by-election?PoliticsNo$194¢99¢+$0
Will MrBeast say "Calendar" during his next YouTube video?MentionsYesResolved$08.1¢0.0¢-$0
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24?WeatherYesResolved$09.7¢0.0¢-$0
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?PoliticsYesResolved$02.3¢0.0¢-$0
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on July 1?WeatherYesResolved$00.3¢0.0¢-$0
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$119¢0.0¢-$1
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on July 18?PoliticsNoResolved$751¢0.0¢-$7
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?MentionsNoResolved$220¢0.0¢-$2

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics+$1.4K
Mentions+$276
Weather-$193
Economy+$35
Culture-$29
Finance-$20
Tech-$19
Crypto+$18
Other sports-$10
Other+$6
World Cup-$4
NBA-$4
Biggest hit
+$798
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?
Toughest beat
-$624
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Recent moves

  • Cashed out Yes · Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?$71h ago
  • MERGE Will 240-249 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?$109h ago
  • Bought No · Will 240-249 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?$99h ago
  • MERGE Will 260 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?$179h ago
  • Bought No · Will 260 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?$169h ago
  • Cashed out Yes · Will Simu Liu appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?$1015h ago
  • Cashed out Yes · Will Anthony Mackie appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?$1016h ago
  • Cashed out Yes · Will Chris Evans appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?$1616h ago
  • Cashed out Yes · Will Robert Downey Jr. appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?$1016h ago
  • Cashed out No · Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video?$21d ago
  • Cashed out No · Will any other model be the best AI model on July 25, 2026?$61d ago
  • MERGE Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?$121d ago