 Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $40 | 22¢ | 12¢ | -$19 |
 Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $3 | 3.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 1.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Trump attend the launch?Tech | YesResolved | $4 | 1.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?Politics | YesResolved | $2 | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will less than 4 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 5.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 3.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 5.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?Politics | NoResolved | $5 | 46¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 SpaceX 7th Starship booster survives re-entry?Tech | NoResolved | $1 | 6.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Tech | NoResolved | $4 | 6.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Will Chris Christie win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 5.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 1.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?Tech | NoResolved | $3 | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| SpaceX 7th Starship upper stage successful splash down?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 10.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30?Economy | YesResolved | $5 | 2.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 2024 September hottest on record?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Ron DeSantis win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 5.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28?Tech | YesResolved | $4 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Will Elizabeth Warren win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 5.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 SpaceX Flight 7 launch before February 2025?Tech | NoResolved | $4 | 0.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech | NoResolved | $3 | 5.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?Tech | NoResolved | $1 | 5.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on February 28?Tech | YesResolved | $2 | 1.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics | YesResolved | $4 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 4.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by December 31?Tech | NoResolved | $29 | 8.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$29 |
 DeepSeek better than all OpenAI models before June?Politics | YesResolved | $10 | 2.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 5.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics | YesResolved | $0 | 2.9¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
 Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 0.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 5.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 3.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 5.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will three SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?Tech | YesResolved | $3 | 8.6¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will Bernie Sanders win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 5.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?Tech | YesResolved | $5 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Politics | YesResolved | $2 | 1.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
Cashed out No · Xi Jinping out in 2025?$55mo ago
Cashed out No · Iran Nuke in 2025?$135mo ago
Cashed out No · AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?$455mo ago
Cashed out No · Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?$08mo ago
Cashed out No · Doge ETF approved by July 31?$08mo ago
Cashed out Yes · OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?$08mo ago