← Whale Watch

The-Defect

Predicting since Jan 20261,170 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $5.2K on Politics markets since Jan 2026.

Right now: $1.0K across 6 NBA markets.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?PoliticsYes$94886¢90¢+$48
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?NBANo$90396¢100¢+$41
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?PoliticsNo$78873¢77¢+$38
NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27?NBANo$44886¢85¢-$6
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?PoliticsNo$26068¢80¢+$45
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?CultureNo$22986¢90¢+$8
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?PoliticsNo$18384¢92¢+$17
Will Draymond Green play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?NBANo$16288¢100¢+$22
Will Draymond Green play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?NBAYes$17792¢96¢+$6
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?PoliticsYes$15451¢59¢+$22
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July?FinanceNo$15795¢99¢+$7
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?FinanceNo$14192¢94¢+$3
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?PoliticsNo$13476¢80¢+$7
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?EconomyYes$12682¢77¢-$8
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?PoliticsNo$11693¢93¢-$1
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?PoliticsYes$12774¢59¢-$26
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?PoliticsNo$7471¢93¢+$23
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?FinanceYes$9573¢72¢-$2
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$8479¢83¢+$5
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?PoliticsYes$7013¢16¢+$18
Will LeBron's next contract average $15M-$50M per year?NBANo$7484¢100¢+$14
Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?PoliticsNo$8798¢99¢+$1
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?CryptoNo$6688¢98¢+$7
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?EconomyYes$6759¢57¢-$2
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$5794¢98¢+$3
Will James Harden play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?NBAYes$5789¢89¢+$0
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?PoliticsNo$5081¢87¢+$4
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?PoliticsYes$4876¢86¢+$6
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31?PoliticsNo$5097¢98¢+$1
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?PoliticsYes$5734¢28¢-$9
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$4889¢89¢-$0
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?CultureYes$4484¢88¢+$2
Will LeBron James play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?NBANo$3597¢100¢+$1
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?PoliticsNo$2686¢89¢+$1
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$3865¢42¢-$14
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 1.5T yuan?FinanceYes$2495¢96¢+$0
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?PoliticsNo$2390¢94¢+$1
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?PoliticsNo$2391¢93¢+$1
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?NBANo$2090¢99¢+$2
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?CultureYes$3617¢9.5¢-$16
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?PoliticsNo$1576¢93¢+$3
Will Netanyahu wear a Yarmulke at next meeting with Trump?PoliticsNo$1799¢96¢-$0
Yoon out of custody before 2027?PoliticsNo$1286¢89¢+$0
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$1632¢26¢-$3
Will LeBron's next contract average over $50M per year?NBANo$1297¢100¢+$0
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?PoliticsYes$1232¢32¢-$0
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?PoliticsNo$1067¢74¢+$1
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?CryptoNo$849¢66¢+$3
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?PoliticsYes$2632¢11¢-$17
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?CultureNo$1872¢35¢-$9
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?PoliticsNo$968¢63¢-$1
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$787¢92¢+$0
Will CXMT’s closing IPO market cap be at least 3T yuan?FinanceYes$535¢45¢+$2
US x China tariff agreement by July 31?PoliticsNo$798¢98¢+$0
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?PoliticsNo$697¢97¢+$0
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$589¢96¢+$0
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?PoliticsYes$482¢97¢+$1
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Xi in 2026?PoliticsNo$483¢99¢+$1
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?PoliticsNo$358¢82¢+$1
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?PoliticsNo$476¢97¢+$1
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026?PoliticsNo$485¢91¢+$0
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?CultureYes$470¢88¢+$1
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?PoliticsNo$366¢85¢+$1
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?PoliticsYes$636¢25¢-$2
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?PoliticsNo$386¢94¢+$0
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?TechYes$381¢86¢+$0
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?CryptoNo$270¢88¢+$1
US strike on Colombia by December 31?PoliticsNo$265¢76¢+$0
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?NFLYes$244¢51¢+$0
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?NFLNo$19.9¢49¢+$2
US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$27.0¢11¢+$1
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?PoliticsYes$440¢20¢-$2
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?PoliticsYes$521¢7.5¢-$3
Will LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year?NBAYes$5890¢1.8¢-$57
Will LeBron sign his next NBA contract by July 24, 2026?NBANoResolved$2080¢0.0¢-$20

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics+$5.2K
NBA+$898
Finance-$376
Olympics+$265
Tech+$174
Weather+$153
Culture+$120
Other sports+$71
Crypto+$49
Soccer (other)+$35
World Cup+$23
Tennis-$5
Biggest hit
+$613
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
Toughest beat
-$1.7K
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Recent moves

  • Bought No · U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?$421m ago
  • Sold No · China ballistic missile launch by December 31?$928m ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$231h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$21h ago
  • Bought Yes · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$51h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 85 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$202h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?$22h ago
  • Bought Yes · Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?$12h ago
  • Sold Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$993h ago
  • Sold No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$95h ago
  • Sold No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$535h ago
  • Sold No · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$525h ago