 Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?Tech | YesResolved | $50 | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$6 |
 Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics | Yes | $25 | 36¢ | 12¢ | -$17 |
 Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto | Yes | $53 | 56¢ | 7.5¢ | -$46 |
 Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Formula 1 | Yes | $50 | 25¢ | 1.8¢ | -$47 |
 Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?Tech | YesResolved | $20 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
 Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?Tech | YesResolved | $2 | 1.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?Politics | YesResolved | $5 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Tech | YesResolved | $20 | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
 Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?Formula 1 | YesResolved | $105 | 77¢ | 0.0¢ | -$105 |
 Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series?MLB | YesResolved | $10 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?Politics | NoResolved | $2 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will Bernie Sanders say "Billionaire" 7+ times during his West Virginia speech on August 8?Mentions | YesResolved | $10 | 85¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 0.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Tech | YesResolved | $5 | 6.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during the UK state banquet on September 17?Mentions | YesResolved | $3 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Tech | YesResolved | $100 | 55¢ | 0.0¢ | -$100 |
 Will a hurricane make landfall in the US before August?Weather | YesResolved | $3 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?Culture | YesResolved | $10 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?Mentions | NoResolved | $20 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
| Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?Mentions | NoResolved | $5 | 38¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will Trump say "Oil" 15+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Mentions | NoResolved | $10 | 53¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey?Politics | YesResolved | $5 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?Politics | YesResolved | $5 | 10.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025?Culture | YesResolved | $1 | 4.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $51 | 88¢ | 0.0¢ | -$51 |
 Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?Weather | NoResolved | $10 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?Politics | YesResolved | $5 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will Trump say "Security" during the UK state banquet on September 17?Mentions | YesResolved | $3 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will global temperature increase by between 0.95–0.99ºC in July 2025?Weather | YesResolved | $1 | 2.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 1,350+ Measles cases in U.S. before August?Tech | YesResolved | $10 | 52¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series?MLB | YesResolved | $10 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in July 2025?Weather | YesResolved | $1 | 0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?Politics | YesResolved | $5 | 48¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?Politics | YesResolved | $50 | 43¢ | 0.0¢ | -$50 |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during January press conference?Mentions | YesResolved | $20 | 87¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
 Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?Basketball (other) | YesResolved | $10 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Mentions | NoResolved | $5 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will global temperature increase by less than 0.90ºC in July 2025?Weather | YesResolved | $1 | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Trump say "Stolen" or "Steal" during oil executive meetings on Friday?Mentions | NoResolved | $5 | 72¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?NFL | YesResolved | $50 | 70¢ | 0.0¢ | -$50 |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025?Weather | YesResolved | $1 | 1.8¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during oil executive meetings on Friday?Mentions | NoResolved | $10 | 58¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?Politics | YesResolved | $25 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | -$25 |
 Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by October 31?Politics | YesResolved | $5 | 23¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will anyone say "Million", "Billion", or "Trillion" 15+ times during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call?Mentions | YesResolved | $5 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)UFC / MMA | YadongResolved | $3 | 40¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 0.3¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?Mentions | NoResolved | $5 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
| Will global temperature increase by between 0.90–0.94ºC in July 2025?Weather | YesResolved | $1 | 0.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will no leader be out in 2025?Politics | YesResolved | $50 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | -$50 |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "Tariff" during his West Virginia speech on August 8?Mentions | YesResolved | $10 | 43¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?Politics | NoResolved | $7 | 3.5¢ | 0.0¢ | -$7 |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?Mentions | NoResolved | $15 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | -$15 |
| UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)UFC / MMA | LewisResolved | $10 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US?Politics | YesResolved | $4 | 3.7¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Will Russia capture Sumy before October?Politics | YesResolved | $10 | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | -$10 |
 Doge ETF approved in 2025?Crypto | NoResolved | $20 | 21¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
Sold Yes · Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?$191mo ago
Sold No · Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?$611mo ago
Cashed out No · Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary?$03mo ago