DerApfelIstDerApfel

Predicting since Feb 202646 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

All-time PnL

+$0

This year

+$0

Last 30 days

+$0

Portfolio value

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle

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Market	Side	Stake	Entry	Now	PnL
Will any xAI Grok model score at least 30% on the FrontierMath Exam?Tech	NoResolved	$23	17¢	0.0¢	-$23
Will Google Gemini score at least 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech	YesResolved	$10	18¢	0.0¢	-$10
Claude 4.7 released by June 30?Tech	NoResolved	$43	50¢	0.0¢	-$43
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?Politics	YesResolved	$30	48¢	0.0¢	-$30
Will Leavitt say "China" during the next White House Press Briefing?Mentions	YesResolved	$3	31¢	0.0¢	-$3
Will Leavitt say "Baby" during the next White House Press Briefing?Mentions	YesResolved	$3	37¢	0.0¢	-$3
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31?Tech	YesResolved	$10	10.0¢	0.0¢	-$10
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?Tech	YesResolved	$5	6.2¢	0.0¢	-$5
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech	YesResolved	$10	31¢	0.0¢	-$10
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech	YesResolved	$30	52¢	0.0¢	-$30
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?Tech	YesResolved	$11	41¢	0.0¢	-$11
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?Tech	YesResolved	$40	16¢	0.0¢	-$40
Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" during his next YouTube video?Mentions	YesResolved	$3	0.9¢	0.0¢	-$3
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech	YesResolved	$10	39¢	0.0¢	-$10

Realized + open PnL by category

Tech-$260

Politics-$30

Mentions-$21

Biggest hit

+$25

GPT-5.4 released by March 9?

Toughest beat

-$74

Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?

Bought No · Claude 4.7 released by June 30?$434mo ago
Sold Yes · Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?$434mo ago
Cashed out No · Will Leavitt say "ICE" or "National Guard" during the next White House Press Briefing?$04mo ago
Cashed out No · Will Leavitt say "State of the Union" during the next White House Press Briefing?$04mo ago
Bought Yes · Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?$54mo ago
Sold Yes · Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?$24mo ago
Bought Yes · Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?$34mo ago
Sold Yes · VEO 4 released by March 31, 2026?$64mo ago
Sold Yes · Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?$2264mo ago
Bought Yes · Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?$3004mo ago
Sold Yes · Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$434mo ago
Sold Yes · GPT-5.4 released by March 9?$554mo ago