← Whale Watch

garbagefriends

Predicting since Jan 20261,169 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $1.2K on Politics markets since Jan 2026.

Right now: $2.5K riding on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?.

Biggest hit: +$3.4K on Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?PoliticsNo$2.5K76¢80¢+$104
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsNo$85397¢98¢+$8
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$28893¢95¢+$4
Iran Nuke before 2027?PoliticsNo$19890¢95¢+$11
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?PoliticsNo$13059¢95¢+$79
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?NBANo$10050¢100¢+$100
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?PoliticsYes$21172¢56¢-$45
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?PoliticsNo$12692¢97¢+$7
Trump goes to space in 2026?PoliticsNo$12296¢98¢+$3
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$10891¢97¢+$6
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?PoliticsNo$10897¢100¢+$3
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$13545¢36¢-$29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsNo$12925¢17¢-$42
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?PoliticsNo$7484¢98¢+$12
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?PoliticsYes$12423¢16¢-$39
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?PoliticsYes$5962¢89¢+$25
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$8215¢13¢-$12
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?CryptoYes$6831¢30¢-$3
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?PoliticsYes$550.9¢0.9¢-$3
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?PoliticsYes$8217¢7.5¢-$46
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$2368¢98¢+$10
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?CryptoYes$594.7¢2.4¢-$29
NATO dissolves before 2027?PoliticsNo$2594¢97¢+$1
US strike on Colombia by December 31?PoliticsYes$1919¢25¢+$6
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?PoliticsYes$3519¢13¢-$11
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?PoliticsYes$3327¢18¢-$12
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?MentionsNo$1786¢100¢+$3
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?PoliticsYes$5718¢5.5¢-$39
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?PoliticsYes$39.0¢43¢+$13
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?PoliticsNo$1479¢88¢+$2
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?CryptoYes$210.2¢0.1¢-$5
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?PoliticsYes$1717¢12¢-$5
Will Clavicular visit North Korea in 2026?CultureNo$1298¢99¢+$0
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?PoliticsNo$1299¢99¢-$0
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?PoliticsYes$663¢97¢+$3
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?PoliticsYes$615.7¢0.7¢-$54
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?PoliticsNo$690¢94¢+$0
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in July?CryptoYes$122.8¢1.5¢-$6
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?PoliticsYes$452¢69¢+$1
Will Venezuela become 51st state?PoliticsNo$495¢97¢+$0
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)World CupNetherlandsResolved$525¢0.0¢-$5
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta BravesMLBSan Diego PadresResolved$11128¢0.0¢-$111
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June?PoliticsNoResolved$812¢0.0¢-$8
Deniz Undav: 1+ goalsWorld CupYesResolved$841¢0.0¢-$8
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$726¢0.0¢-$7
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?MentionsNoResolved$163¢0.0¢-$1
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?World CupYesResolved$3358¢0.0¢-$33
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)World CupArgentinaResolved$1343¢0.0¢-$13
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?PoliticsYesResolved$132.5¢0.0¢-$13
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$1919¢0.0¢-$19
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$252¢0.0¢-$2
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?PoliticsNoResolved$26738¢0.0¢-$267
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to AdvanceWorld CupGermanyResolved$2781¢0.0¢-$27
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksMLBArizona DiamondbacksResolved$3029¢0.0¢-$30
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?PoliticsYesResolved$98.0¢0.0¢-$9
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?World CupYesResolved$1059¢0.0¢-$10
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?World CupYesResolved$837¢0.0¢-$8
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)World CupEcuadorResolved$1137¢0.0¢-$11
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?PoliticsYesResolved$456.1¢0.0¢-$45
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?WeatherYesResolved$541.8¢0.0¢-$54
Ethereum flipped in 2026?CryptoNoResolved$528¢0.0¢-$5
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?World CupYesResolved$1915¢0.0¢-$19
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?PoliticsYesResolved$92.9¢0.0¢-$9
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?PoliticsNoResolved$2015¢0.0¢-$20
Mexico vs. England: Team to AdvanceWorld CupMexicoResolved$5749¢0.0¢-$57
Will England win on 2026-07-05?World CupNoResolved$5336¢0.0¢-$53
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado RockiesMLBCincinnati RedsResolved$754¢0.0¢-$7
No one announced as next James Bond?CultureNoResolved$1096.9¢0.0¢-$109
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?PoliticsNoResolved$3915¢0.0¢-$39
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Argentina?World CupYesResolved$1312¢0.0¢-$13
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?PoliticsYesResolved$438.8¢0.0¢-$43
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?PoliticsYesResolved$151.0¢0.0¢-$15
Will Trump say "Mutilation" during Faith & Freedom Coalition Conference?MentionsYesResolved$167.2¢0.0¢-$16
United States vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceWorld CupUnited StatesResolved$1654¢0.0¢-$16
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?PoliticsNoResolved$1216¢0.0¢-$12
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?CryptoYesResolved$195.0¢0.0¢-$19
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?PoliticsYesResolved$621¢0.0¢-$6
Over $32.5M committed to the Credible public sale?CryptoNoResolved$88.3¢0.0¢-$8
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$95.7¢0.0¢-$9
Spread: Germany (-1.5)World CupGermanyResolved$1040¢0.0¢-$10
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina?World CupYesResolved$1716¢0.0¢-$17
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?World CupYesResolved$5747¢0.0¢-$57
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$827¢0.0¢-$8
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Argentina?World CupYesResolved$109.0¢0.0¢-$10
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?World CupYesResolved$2549¢0.0¢-$25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?PoliticsYesResolved$43219¢0.0¢-$432
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14?CryptoYesResolved$142.2¢0.0¢-$14
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?World CupYesResolved$4146¢0.0¢-$41
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?PoliticsYesResolved$168.0¢0.0¢-$16
France vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreWorld CupYesResolved$1852¢0.0¢-$18
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to ScoreWorld CupYesResolved$1261¢0.0¢-$12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$117.2¢0.0¢-$11
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)World CupArgentinaResolved$2067¢0.0¢-$20
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?World CupYesResolved$2632¢0.0¢-$26
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14?CryptoYesResolved$729¢0.0¢-$7
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?TechNoResolved$9861¢0.0¢-$98
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$3926¢0.0¢-$39
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026?TechNoResolved$2322¢0.0¢-$23
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?PoliticsYesResolved$3072¢0.0¢-$30
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$08.0¢0.0¢-$0

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Politics+$1.2K
World Cup-$638
Crypto+$570
NFL+$506
Culture-$201
eSports-$196
MLB-$184
Tech+$180
Olympics-$148
Finance+$107
NBA+$100
Weather-$83
Biggest hit
+$3.4K
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?
Toughest beat
-$1.3K
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Recent moves

  • Sold No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$6085h ago
  • Sold No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1795h ago
  • Sold No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$2555h ago
  • Sold No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$5765h ago
  • Sold No · Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$4276h ago
  • Cashed out Yes · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?$817h ago
  • Sold No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$4218h ago
  • Sold No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$118h ago
  • Sold No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$4318h ago
  • Bought No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$3018h ago
  • Bought No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$118h ago
  • Bought No · US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$518h ago