| Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?Politics | No | $103 | 52¢ | 47¢ | -$9 |
 Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $90 | 87¢ | 84¢ | -$4 |
 Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the September Meeting?Politics | No | $74 | 73¢ | 69¢ | -$4 |
 Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $62 | 62¢ | 61¢ | -$1 |
| Will Leviatán Win More than 3.5 Matches in VCT 2026 Americas Stage 2eSports | U 3.5 | $28 | 28¢ | 56¢ | +$28 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $57 | 72¢ | 64¢ | -$6 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech | No | $36 | 71¢ | 65¢ | -$3 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Tech | Yes | $31 | 62¢ | 57¢ | -$3 |
 Will Sweetgreen (SG) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $29 | 58¢ | 57¢ | -$1 |
 Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?Politics | No | $28 | 56¢ | 56¢ | -$0 |
 Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Finance | No | $28 | 56¢ | 53¢ | -$1 |
| Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $30 | 59¢ | 48¢ | -$6 |
 Will Paper Rex Win VCT Pacific Stage 2 2026?eSports | Yes | $26 | 33¢ | 28¢ | -$4 |
 Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?Economy | No | $22 | 74¢ | 73¢ | -$0 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 1?Politics | Yes | $21 | 82¢ | 81¢ | -$0 |
 Will the Bank of Israel hold at the August 2026 meeting?Economy | Yes | $19 | 75¢ | 74¢ | -$0 |
 Chuck Edwards out as US Rep before December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $25 | 69¢ | 50¢ | -$7 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Tech | No | $16 | 33¢ | 33¢ | +$0 |
 Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $16 | 84¢ | 79¢ | -$1 |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 280m?Culture | No | $16 | 81¢ | 69¢ | -$2 |
 Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 27?Weather | No | $14 | 68¢ | 67¢ | -$0 |
 Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 27?Weather | No | $14 | 68¢ | 65¢ | -$1 |
 Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 27?Weather | No | $11 | 57¢ | 55¢ | -$0 |
| Will Team Vamos Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?eSports | Yes | $21 | 42¢ | 21¢ | -$10 |
 Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 28?Weather | No | $12 | 60¢ | 50¢ | -$2 |
 Will Guangzhou Huadu Bilibili Gaming Qualify to VCT Champs 2026?eSports | Yes | $13 | 32¢ | 24¢ | -$3 |
| Will USD be at least 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?Politics | Yes | $29 | 63¢ | 20¢ | -$20 |
| Will "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be between 250k and 300k?Culture | No | $10 | 88¢ | 78¢ | -$1 |
| Will Team Spirit Win the EWC Mobile Legends: Bang Bang Mid Season Cup?eSports | Yes | $17 | 33¢ | 17¢ | -$8 |
 Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $10 | 19¢ | 16¢ | -$2 |
| Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?Tech | No | $11 | 33¢ | 22¢ | -$4 |
| Will Tukaka George Tamarua Ama win the Ngatangiia constituency in the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?Politics | No | $75 | 47¢ | 4.2¢ | -$69 |
 Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | No | $8 | 77¢ | 65¢ | -$1 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech | Yes | $8 | 15¢ | 10¢ | -$3 |
 Will T1 Win VCT Pacific Stage 2 2026?eSports | Yes | $1 | 6.3¢ | 25¢ | +$4 |
 Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 28?Weather | No | $5 | 78¢ | 77¢ | -$0 |
 Will 100 Thieves Win VCT AMER Stage 2 2026?eSports | No | $5 | 71¢ | 66¢ | -$0 |
 Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1?Culture | Yes | $31 | 50¢ | 7.2¢ | -$27 |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | Yes | $9 | 43¢ | 22¢ | -$4 |
 Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 28?Weather | No | $5 | 57¢ | 54¢ | -$0 |
 Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Politics | No | $4 | 82¢ | 82¢ | +$0 |
 Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 US song this week?Culture | No | $7 | 37¢ | 20¢ | -$3 |
| Will "Been By Now - Morgan Wallen" be the #2 US song this week?Culture | No | $9 | 44¢ | 18¢ | -$5 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?Politics | No | $3 | 76¢ | 89¢ | +$0 |
| Will Shakira's monthly listeners figure hit 107m by August 31?World Cup | No | $5 | 27¢ | 14¢ | -$3 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Tech | Yes | $7 | 14¢ | 5.5¢ | -$4 |
 Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 25?Weather | No | $2 | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
 Will FURIA Win VCT AMER Stage 2 2026?eSports | Yes | $1 | 6.3¢ | 33¢ | +$2 |
| Will “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?Culture | No | $2 | 57¢ | 58¢ | +$0 |
| Will Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $9.5B and $11B at market close on IPO day?Finance | Yes | $6 | 11¢ | 5.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will Madonna's monthly listeners figure hit 60m by August 31?Culture | Yes | $6 | 11¢ | 4.9¢ | -$3 |
| Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?Tech | Yes | $30 | 21¢ | 1.8¢ | -$27 |
 Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in July?Weather | No | $2 | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
| Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?Weather | Yes | $2 | 11¢ | 12¢ | +$0 |
| Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?Weather | Yes | $2 | 11¢ | 12¢ | +$0 |
 Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Politics | Yes | $2 | 79¢ | 78¢ | -$0 |
| Will Meta (META) Q2 capital expenditures (including principal payments on finance leases) be above $35B?Finance | Yes | $3 | 65¢ | 47¢ | -$1 |
 OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026?Politics | No | $3 | 89¢ | 68¢ | -$1 |
 Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $8 | 50¢ | 14¢ | -$5 |
| Will "Been By Now - Morgan Wallen" be the #1 US song this week?Culture | Yes | $6 | 30¢ | 11¢ | -$4 |
| Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?Weather | Yes | $2 | 11¢ | 11¢ | -$0 |
 Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 27?Weather | Yes | $3 | 16¢ | 11¢ | -$1 |
| Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $3 | 55¢ | 44¢ | -$1 |
 Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 27?Weather | Yes | $0 | 9.1¢ | 47¢ | +$2 |
 Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?MLB | Yes | $2 | 55¢ | 52¢ | -$0 |
| Will AbbVie Q2 Global Rinvoq net revenues be above $2.7B?Finance | Yes | $4 | 19¢ | 10¢ | -$2 |
| Will Kansas have the closest Governor's race in 2026?Politics | Yes | $3 | 14¢ | 9.8¢ | -$1 |
| Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in July?Economy | Yes | $15 | 31¢ | 3.8¢ | -$13 |
 Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 27?Weather | No | $2 | 58¢ | 56¢ | -$0 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 20, 2026?Politics | Yes | $3 | 13¢ | 8.5¢ | -$1 |
 Will Amazon.com (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $10 | 48¢ | 8.5¢ | -$8 |
 Will Virginia reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?Weather | Yes | $7 | 34¢ | 8.5¢ | -$5 |
| Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?Weather | Yes | $2 | 11¢ | 8.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will G2 Esports Win VCT AMER Stage 2 2026?eSports | Yes | $1 | 6.3¢ | 20¢ | +$1 |
 Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 26?Weather | No | $1 | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$1 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 27?Weather | Yes | $1 | 9.1¢ | 10¢ | +$0 |
| Procter & Gamble (PG) Q4 organic sales growth 3.5%+?Finance | Yes | $3 | 15¢ | 7.5¢ | -$1 |
 Will New York Times (NYT) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | No | $5 | 44¢ | 13¢ | -$4 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPhone revenue be above $58B?Finance | Yes | $3 | 15¢ | 7.5¢ | -$2 |
 Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) beat quarterly earnings?Finance | Yes | $2 | 10¢ | 7.2¢ | -$1 |
 Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?Politics | Yes | $2 | 46¢ | 42¢ | -$0 |
 Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Economy | Yes | $1 | 63¢ | 61¢ | -$0 |
 Will NRG Win VCT AMER Stage 2 2026?eSports | Yes | $1 | 6.3¢ | 18¢ | +$1 |
| Will there be exactly 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?Weather | Yes | $2 | 11¢ | 7.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will Global Esports Win VCT Pacific Stage 2 2026?eSports | Yes | $1 | 6.3¢ | 7.0¢ | +$0 |
 Will ENVY Win VCT AMER Stage 2 2026?eSports | Yes | $1 | 6.3¢ | 17¢ | +$1 |
| Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?Weather | Yes | $2 | 11¢ | 6.5¢ | -$1 |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 27?Weather | Yes | $1 | 32¢ | 27¢ | -$0 |
 Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of August 2026?Tech | Yes | $4 | 11¢ | 3.1¢ | -$3 |
 Will Óscar Estupiñán (FC Juárez) be the top goalscorer of the 2026 Liga MX Apertura?Soccer (other) | Yes | $2 | 11¢ | 6.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 iPad revenue be above $8B?Finance | Yes | $4 | 13¢ | 3.7¢ | -$3 |
 Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?Weather | Yes | $4 | 20¢ | 5.2¢ | -$3 |
 Will LOUD Win VCT AMER Stage 2 2026?eSports | Yes | $1 | 6.3¢ | 13¢ | +$1 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on July 27?Politics | Yes | $2 | 16¢ | 10¢ | -$1 |
 Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 19?Weather | YesResolved | $20 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | -$20 |
 Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on July 19?Weather | YesResolved | $0 | 9.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on July 18?Weather | YesResolved | $1 | 9.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 18?Weather | YesResolved | $1 | 9.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on July 19?Weather | YesResolved | $2 | 9.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 17?Weather | YesResolved | $0 | 9.1¢ | 0.0¢ | -$0 |
MERGE Will FEARX win more than 5.5 series during LCK 2026 Rounds 3-4?$309m ago
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