 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics | No | $12 | 50¢ | 80¢ | +$7 |
 Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Politics | No | $9 | 27¢ | 32¢ | +$1 |
 Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech | Yes | $6 | 60¢ | 83¢ | +$2 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Politics | No | $5 | 40¢ | 59¢ | +$2 |
 Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics | No | $4 | 41¢ | 63¢ | +$2 |
 Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics | Yes | $2 | 40¢ | 46¢ | +$0 |
 Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics | Yes | $3 | 15¢ | 8.8¢ | -$1 |
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Politics | Yes | $2 | 43¢ | 28¢ | -$1 |
 Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 29¢ | 17¢ | -$1 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $3 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $1 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?Politics | YesResolved | $3 | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?World Cup | YesResolved | $4 | 59¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will OpenAI have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $2 | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Politics | YesResolved | $2 | 43¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $3 | 54¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 37¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?World Cup | YesResolved | $3 | 58¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsWorld Cup | YesResolved | $3 | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $5 | 38¢ | 0.0¢ | -$5 |
 Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 23¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $4 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $2 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?World Cup | YesResolved | $3 | 54¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 2.2¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $1 | 66¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
 Will any xAI Grok model score at least 25% on the FrontierMath Exam?Tech | NoResolved | $2 | 53¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $3 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?Politics | YesResolved | $3 | 37¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $2 | 60¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceWorld Cup | ArgentinaResolved | $9 | 41¢ | 0.0¢ | -$9 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Politics | NoResolved | $2 | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Politics | YesResolved | $4 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $1 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $2 | 47¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Economy | YesResolved | $2 | 49¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $6 | 58¢ | 0.0¢ | -$6 |
 Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?Finance | YesResolved | $1 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Tech | YesResolved | $4 | 41¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Politics | YesResolved | $2 | 42¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $2 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $3 | 61¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $1 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 2, 2026?Tech | NoResolved | $2 | 48¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
 Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?Politics | YesResolved | $3 | 55¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
 Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Economy | NoResolved | $2 | 39¢ | 0.0¢ | -$2 |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assistsWorld Cup | YesResolved | $3 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | -$3 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Tech | YesResolved | $4 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | -$4 |
 Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?Tech | YesResolved | $1 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | -$1 |
Bought Yes · Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?$51mo ago
Bought No · Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?$11mo ago
Cashed out No · US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$201mo ago