← Whale Watch

ConvexTheta

Predicting since Jul 20254,245 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Down $2.1K on Crypto markets since Jul 2025.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" this week?MentionsYesResolved$532¢0.0¢-$5
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ETCryptoDownResolved$12.5¢0.0¢-$1
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ETCryptoUpResolved$775¢0.0¢-$7
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ETCryptoDownResolved$13.0¢0.0¢-$1
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7AM ETCryptoDownResolved$358¢0.0¢-$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4PM ETCryptoDownResolved$355¢0.0¢-$3
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ETCryptoUpResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ETCryptoUpResolved$01.0¢0.0¢-$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8PM ETCryptoUpResolved$363¢0.0¢-$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3PM ETCryptoDownResolved$1065¢0.0¢-$10
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ETCryptoUpResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 1:25AM-1:30AM ETCryptoDownResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ETCryptoUpResolved$01.0¢0.0¢-$0
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ETCryptoUpResolved$2299¢0.0¢-$22
Will anyone say "Third-Party Sellers" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?MentionsYesResolved$194¢0.0¢-$1
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ETCryptoUpResolved$1570¢0.0¢-$15
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ETCryptoDownResolved$18799¢0.0¢-$187
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4PM ETCryptoDownResolved$350¢0.0¢-$3
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 4PM ETCryptoUpResolved$259¢0.0¢-$2
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 9AM ETCryptoUpResolved$564¢0.0¢-$5
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ETCryptoUpResolved$599¢0.0¢-$5
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6AM ETCryptoUpResolved$365¢0.0¢-$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ETCryptoDownResolved$299¢0.0¢-$2
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ETCryptoDownResolved$233¢0.0¢-$2
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 9AM ETCryptoUpResolved$359¢0.0¢-$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:05AM-9:10AM ETCryptoDownResolved$12.1¢0.0¢-$1
Will anyone say "Tariff" during the Q3 2025 Apple earnings call?MentionsNoResolved$79.0¢0.0¢-$7
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8AM ETCryptoUpResolved$366¢0.0¢-$3
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 8PM ETCryptoUpResolved$164¢0.0¢-$1
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 6AM ETCryptoUpResolved$260¢0.0¢-$2
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ETCryptoDownResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
Solana Up or Down - February 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ETCryptoUpResolved$595¢0.0¢-$5
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ETCryptoDownResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ETCryptoDownResolved$00.9¢0.0¢-$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:55AM-6:00AM ETCryptoDownResolved$13.0¢0.0¢-$1
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ETCryptoDownResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 6PM ETCryptoUpResolved$259¢0.0¢-$2
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ETCryptoUpResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
XRP Up or Down - February 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ETCryptoUpResolved$1599¢0.0¢-$15
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 10PM ETCryptoUpResolved$269¢0.0¢-$2
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ETCryptoDownResolved$1580¢0.0¢-$15
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 8PM ETCryptoUpResolved$356¢0.0¢-$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2AM ETCryptoDownResolved$369¢0.0¢-$3
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ETCryptoDownResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
Will anyone say "Vision" during the Q3 2025 Apple earnings call?MentionsNoResolved$310.0¢0.0¢-$3
Will anyone say "Tariff" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?MentionsNoResolved$46.8¢0.0¢-$4
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5AM ETCryptoUpResolved$361¢0.0¢-$3
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ETCryptoUpResolved$01.0¢0.0¢-$0
Will anyone say "Robotics" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?MentionsNoResolved$315¢0.0¢-$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:35AM-4:40AM ETCryptoUpResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ETCryptoDownResolved$9499¢0.0¢-$94
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 4PM ETCryptoUpResolved$970¢0.0¢-$9
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 9PM ETCryptoUpResolved$560¢0.0¢-$5
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11PM ETCryptoDownResolved$359¢0.0¢-$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ETCryptoUpResolved$13.0¢0.0¢-$1
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 7PM ETCryptoDownResolved$363¢0.0¢-$3
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ETCryptoUpResolved$4599¢0.0¢-$45
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ETCryptoDownResolved$351¢0.0¢-$3
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ETCryptoDownResolved$01.0¢0.0¢-$0
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ETCryptoDownResolved$12.3¢0.0¢-$1
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 10AM ETCryptoUpResolved$350¢0.0¢-$3
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ETCryptoUpResolved$13.0¢0.0¢-$1
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ETCryptoDownResolved$20198¢0.0¢-$201
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ETCryptoUpResolved$295¢0.0¢-$2
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 1PM ETCryptoDownResolved$564¢0.0¢-$5
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ETCryptoDownResolved$599¢0.0¢-$5
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ETCryptoDownResolved$2299¢0.0¢-$22
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ETCryptoDownResolved$299¢0.0¢-$2
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6AM ETCryptoDownResolved$488¢0.0¢-$4
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8PM ETCryptoUpResolved$165¢0.0¢-$1
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ETCryptoDownResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ETCryptoDownResolved$799¢0.0¢-$7
XRP Up or Down - March 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ETCryptoUpResolved$01.0¢0.0¢-$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ETCryptoDownResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
Will anyone say "Alexa Plus" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?MentionsNoResolved$211¢0.0¢-$2
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 1:15PM-1:30PM ETCryptoUpResolved$01.0¢0.0¢-$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9AM ETCryptoUpResolved$356¢0.0¢-$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ETCryptoDownResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ETCryptoDownResolved$01.0¢0.0¢-$0
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ETCryptoDownResolved$120¢0.0¢-$1
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ETCryptoDownResolved$13199¢0.0¢-$131
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11AM ETCryptoUpResolved$1067¢0.0¢-$10
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11AM ETCryptoDownResolved$258¢0.0¢-$2
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ETCryptoDownResolved$12.3¢0.0¢-$1
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:25AM-1:30AM ETCryptoDownResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 6PM ETCryptoUpResolved$258¢0.0¢-$2
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7PM ETCryptoDownResolved$362¢0.0¢-$3
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ETCryptoUpResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4AM ETCryptoDownResolved$368¢0.0¢-$3
Solana Up or Down - February 5, 8AM ETCryptoUpResolved$460¢0.0¢-$4
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ETCryptoUpResolved$599¢0.0¢-$5
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 7PM ETCryptoDownResolved$661¢0.0¢-$6
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ETCryptoDownResolved$295¢0.0¢-$2
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1AM ETCryptoDownResolved$350¢0.0¢-$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9AM ETCryptoUpResolved$247¢0.0¢-$2
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ETCryptoUpResolved$360¢0.0¢-$3
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ETCryptoUpResolved$12.0¢0.0¢-$1
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ETCryptoUpResolved$13.0¢0.0¢-$1
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ETCryptoUpResolved$13.0¢0.0¢-$1
XRP Up or Down - March 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ETCryptoDownResolved$01.0¢0.0¢-$0

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category · still crunching older history, totals will deepen

Crypto-$2.1K
Mentions-$25
Politics-$3
Tech-$2
Biggest hit
+$13
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 9AM ET
Toughest beat
-$10
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 8AM ET

Recent moves

  • Cashed out Up · Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$104mo ago
  • Cashed out Up · XRP Up or Down - March 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$1884mo ago
  • Cashed out Up · Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$1974mo ago
  • Cashed out Up · XRP Up or Down - March 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$1334mo ago
  • Cashed out Up · Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$104mo ago
  • Cashed out Up · XRP Up or Down - March 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$2244mo ago
  • Bought Up · XRP Up or Down - March 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$874mo ago
  • Bought Up · XRP Up or Down - March 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$884mo ago
  • Bought Up · XRP Up or Down - March 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$54mo ago
  • Bought Up · XRP Up or Down - March 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$54mo ago
  • Bought Up · Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$54mo ago
  • Bought Up · Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$54mo ago