← Whale Watch

cynical-reason

Predicting since Jul 2025277 markets tradedPolymarket profile ↗

Up $239K on Politics markets since Jul 2025.

Right now: $3.4K across 22 Tech markets.

Biggest hit: +$48K on Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?.

All-time PnL
+$0
This year
+$0
Last 30 days
+$0
Portfolio value
$0

Deep stats

Bucko Oracle
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Profit over time

What they are betting now

MarketSideStakeEntryNowPnL
Will Andy Byron be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Will Santa deliver fewer than 7,900,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$120.3¢0.0¢-$12
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?PoliticsYesResolved$1544.0¢0.0¢-$154
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
NYC Election: Sliwa drops out and Cuomo wins?PoliticsYesResolved$412.4¢0.0¢-$41
Nothing Ever Happens: KhameneiPoliticsYesResolved$8773¢0.0¢-$87
Will Catherine Connolly win by 0–5%?PoliticsYesResolved$1383.3¢0.0¢-$138
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?PoliticsYesResolved$29324¢0.0¢-$293
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$11237¢0.0¢-$112
Will Shedeur Sanders be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?PoliticsNoResolved$18229¢0.0¢-$182
Will Vladimir Putin be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?CryptoNoResolved$2.5K34¢0.0¢-$2.5K
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 20-30%?PoliticsYesResolved$34026¢0.0¢-$340
Will Catherine Connolly win by 10–15%?PoliticsYesResolved$01.1¢0.0¢-$0
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?PoliticsNoResolved$1.3K23¢0.0¢-$1.3K
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?PoliticsYesResolved$7208.0¢0.0¢-$720
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?PoliticsNoResolved$7216.0¢0.0¢-$721
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$1032.4¢0.0¢-$103
Will Terence Crawford be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?PoliticsNoResolved$1012¢0.0¢-$10
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?PoliticsNoResolved$37616¢0.0¢-$376
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?Other sportsYesResolved$1123.3¢0.0¢-$112
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$1093.0¢0.0¢-$109
Will the New York City Mayor election have the largest Democratic margin of victory?PoliticsYesResolved$4711¢0.0¢-$47
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in August?PoliticsNoResolved$5929¢0.0¢-$59
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?PoliticsNoResolved$1.1K20¢0.0¢-$1.1K
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?PoliticsYesResolved$3089.3¢0.0¢-$308
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by August 31?PoliticsYesResolved$4850¢0.0¢-$48
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?PoliticsYesResolved$2.0K9.9¢0.0¢-$2.0K
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9?PoliticsYesResolved$205.0¢0.0¢-$20
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$56122¢0.0¢-$561
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 5?PoliticsYesResolved$00.3¢0.0¢-$0
Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 31?PoliticsNoResolved$4210.0¢0.0¢-$42
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be 36% or higher?PoliticsNoResolved$1.6K23¢0.0¢-$1.6K
Will Katy Perry be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?PoliticsNoResolved$1.0K36¢0.0¢-$1.0K
Will Heather Humphreys win by 5–10%?PoliticsYesResolved$61.0¢0.0¢-$6
Will GPT-5 be released on August 6?TechYesResolved$42.0¢0.0¢-$4
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$947¢0.0¢-$9
Will Canelo Alvarez be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 million?BoxingYesResolved$854.3¢0.0¢-$85
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$320¢0.0¢-$3
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?PoliticsYesResolved-$00.0¢0.0¢+$0
Will Trump invoke War Powers again by October 31?PoliticsYesResolved$5613¢0.0¢-$56
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?CryptoYesResolved$37535¢0.0¢-$375
Will Diddy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Grokipedia released by October 31?TechNoResolved$23638¢0.0¢-$236
Will Luigi Mangione be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Will Nicolás Maduro be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Will Santa deliver between 8,000,000,000 and 8,100,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$270.3¢0.0¢-$27
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?PoliticsNoResolved$1.6K36¢0.0¢-$1.6K
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$59713¢0.0¢-$597
Will Santa deliver between 8,100,000,000 and 8,200,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$1892.1¢0.0¢-$189
Will the California redistricting referendum pass by 0-10%?PoliticsYesResolved$260.2¢0.0¢-$26
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?PoliticsYesResolved$36914¢0.0¢-$369
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?OlympicsYesResolved$21.4¢0.0¢-$2
Will Trump say "National Guard" during the DC Crime Press Conference?MentionsNoResolved$05.1¢0.0¢-$0
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?PoliticsYesResolved$2.2K46¢0.0¢-$2.2K
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Sunday?Other sportsYesResolved$28028¢0.0¢-$280
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?MentionsNoResolved$421¢0.0¢-$4
Will Heather Humphreys win by 0–5%?PoliticsYesResolved$3432.7¢0.0¢-$343
Will Santa deliver between 7,900,000,000 and 8,000,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$270.3¢0.0¢-$27
Will Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Will Mikey Madison be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?PoliticsNoResolved$451.0¢0.0¢-$45
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$16745¢0.0¢-$167
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Saturday?Other sportsYesResolved$1117¢0.0¢-$11
Will Catherine Connolly win by 5–10%?PoliticsYesResolved$51.9¢0.0¢-$5
Will Santa deliver between 8,300,000,000 and 8,400,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$1552.0¢0.0¢-$155
Will Beyoncé be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
French election called by October 31?PoliticsYesResolved$27563¢0.0¢-$275
Will Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?PoliticsYesResolved$1800.6¢0.0¢-$180
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration this year?PoliticsYesResolved$5304.8¢0.0¢-$530
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?PoliticsNoResolved$3.3K25¢0.0¢-$3.3K
Will Sydney Sweeney be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Will Jannik Sinner be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?PoliticsNoResolved$2.3K70¢0.0¢-$2.3K
Will Trump pardon Maduro by December 31?PoliticsYesResolved$135.7¢0.0¢-$13
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?PoliticsYesResolved$100036¢0.0¢-$1000
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10–15%?PoliticsYesResolved$12645¢0.0¢-$126
Will no leader be out in 2025?PoliticsYesResolved$219¢0.0¢-$2
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?PoliticsYesResolved$1.1K25¢0.0¢-$1.1K
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?TechYesResolved$7806.0¢0.0¢-$780
Will the Patriotic Electoral Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election?PoliticsYesResolved$3786.3¢0.0¢-$378
Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30?PoliticsYesResolved$14.1¢0.0¢-$1
Will Sam Altman be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Panathinaikos vs. BC DubaiBasketball (other)BC DubaiResolved$42021¢0.0¢-$420
Will Jimmy Kimmel be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156
Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election?PoliticsNoResolved$5104.6¢0.0¢-$510
Will Frans Timmermans become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?PoliticsYesResolved$80.2¢0.0¢-$8
Will Kanye West / Ye be the #1 searched person on Google this year?TechYesResolved$1561.1¢0.0¢-$156

Where the money comes from

Realized + open PnL by category

Politics+$239K
Boxing+$6.6K
Culture+$3.8K
Crypto+$3.4K
Tech-$2.8K
Champions League+$1.1K
Basketball (other)-$420
NFL+$113
Other sports+$54
Other-$19
Mentions-$4
Olympics-$2
Biggest hit
+$48K
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?
Toughest beat
-$57K
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?

Recent moves

  • Sold No · Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?$512mo ago
  • Sold No · Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?$42mo ago
  • Sold No · Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?$22mo ago
  • Sold Yes · Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?$672mo ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?$8643mo ago
  • Cashed out Yes · Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?$64mo ago
  • Cashed out Yes · Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$674mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$344mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?$54mo ago
  • Sold Yes · Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?$1964mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$05mo ago
  • Bought Yes · Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?$05mo ago