 Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?Tech | Yes | $937 | 67¢ | 97¢ | +$417 |
 Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Politics | Yes | $789 | 75¢ | 86¢ | +$121 |
 Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by September 30?Politics | No | $691 | 85¢ | 92¢ | +$60 |
 Will Fabien Roussel advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics | No | $684 | 96¢ | 98¢ | +$17 |
 Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics | Yes | $530 | 55¢ | 70¢ | +$136 |
| Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Politics | No | $512 | 82¢ | 99¢ | +$105 |
 Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.25 on September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $393 | 79¢ | 91¢ | +$63 |
 Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?Politics | No | $326 | 82¢ | 87¢ | +$20 |
 Will Yaël Braun-Pivet advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics | No | $212 | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$3 |
 Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?Culture | Yes | $173 | 81¢ | 93¢ | +$25 |
| Will Trump pardon Donald Brodie before 2027?Politics | No | $155 | 81¢ | 89¢ | +$15 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $117 | 25¢ | 32¢ | +$32 |
| Will Trump pardon Roger Stone before 2027?Politics | No | $141 | 77¢ | 79¢ | +$3 |
 California Higher Local Tax Vote Threshold PropositionPolitics | No | $112 | 43¢ | 54¢ | +$28 |
 Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12B by September 30?Finance | No | $102 | 46¢ | 59¢ | +$28 |
| Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?Tech | Yes | $106 | 20¢ | 23¢ | +$11 |
 Will Élisabeth Borne advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics | No | $99 | 96¢ | 98¢ | +$2 |
 Will France pass a national budget by December 31?Politics | Yes | $91 | 34¢ | 36¢ | +$6 |
| Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?Tech | Yes | $76 | 64¢ | 81¢ | +$19 |
| Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Politics | Yes | $77 | 7.2¢ | 8.8¢ | +$17 |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $83 | 46¢ | 48¢ | +$3 |
 Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?Weather | No | $73 | 92¢ | 95¢ | +$3 |
 Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?Politics | Yes | $52 | 21¢ | 30¢ | +$23 |
 Will Markus Allard be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County?Politics | No | $67 | 94¢ | 97¢ | +$2 |
| Will Heidi Overton be confirmed as FDA Commissioner by October 31?Politics | No | $79 | 74¢ | 61¢ | -$14 |
| Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $11.5B by September 30?Finance | No | $45 | 32¢ | 47¢ | +$20 |
| California Expedited Environmental Review PropositionPolitics | No | $47 | 33¢ | 45¢ | +$17 |
 Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Virginia Senate election by 3%-6%?Politics | No | $56 | 88¢ | 99¢ | +$7 |
 Will Lateefah Simon win the CA-12 House seat?Politics | Yes | $59 | 92¢ | 95¢ | +$1 |
| California Homebuying Loan Program PropositionPolitics | Yes | $39 | 44¢ | 63¢ | +$17 |
 Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Politics | No | $54 | 89¢ | 86¢ | -$2 |
 Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027?Politics | No | $48 | 88¢ | 93¢ | +$2 |
 Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $90 | 11¢ | 6.2¢ | -$41 |
 Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Politics | Yes | $6 | 4.7¢ | 33¢ | +$38 |
 Will United Russia win the next Tyumen Oblast Parliament elections?Politics | Yes | $39 | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$0 |
 Will Spotify reach 1 billion total users in 2026?Culture | No | $37 | 90¢ | 96¢ | +$2 |
 Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $300B by December 31?Finance | No | $32 | 80¢ | 92¢ | +$5 |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $18 | 2.2¢ | 3.9¢ | +$15 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Politics | Yes | $20 | 4.0¢ | 6.0¢ | +$10 |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be less than $3.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $6 | 0.7¢ | 3.4¢ | +$22 |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $16 | 2.5¢ | 4.2¢ | +$11 |
| Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics | No | $26 | 95¢ | 95¢ | -$0 |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $10 | 1.2¢ | 2.9¢ | +$15 |
 Will AI-chip export licensing become law this year?Politics | No | $16 | 29¢ | 45¢ | +$9 |
 Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be less than 1.5%?Economy | No | $24 | 95¢ | 92¢ | -$1 |
 Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $60B by December 31?Finance | No | $19 | 90¢ | 97¢ | +$1 |
 Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $14 | 13¢ | 19¢ | +$6 |
| Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Politics | Yes | $17 | 86¢ | 97¢ | +$2 |
 Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $16 | 1.6¢ | 1.8¢ | +$2 |
 Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Politics | Yes | $35 | 0.7¢ | 0.4¢ | -$17 |
 Will Jean Castex announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Politics | No | $16 | 89¢ | 98¢ | +$2 |
 Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics | Yes | $30 | 42¢ | 24¢ | -$13 |
 Reckless Ben in jail by December 31?Culture | Yes | $36 | 14¢ | 6.0¢ | -$20 |
 Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?Politics | Yes | $15 | 1.8¢ | 1.9¢ | +$1 |
| Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?Politics | Yes | $5 | 2.5¢ | 8.5¢ | +$11 |
 Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?Politics | No | $8 | 27¢ | 50¢ | +$7 |
 Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?Weather | Yes | $12 | 43¢ | 54¢ | +$3 |
 Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $12 | 79¢ | 96¢ | +$3 |
 Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?Politics | Yes | $10 | 15¢ | 21¢ | +$4 |
 Will Volker Bajus win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?Politics | Yes | $2 | 2.0¢ | 11¢ | +$11 |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech | Yes | $12 | 0.6¢ | 0.7¢ | +$1 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | Yes | $22 | 0.9¢ | 0.5¢ | -$9 |
 Will James Ho be the next Supreme Court nominee?Politics | No | $10 | 72¢ | 82¢ | +$1 |
 LAPTOP listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE?Politics | Yes | $30 | 14¢ | 5.5¢ | -$18 |
| Will François Hollande announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?Politics | Yes | $8 | 45¢ | 59¢ | +$2 |
 Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?Politics | Yes | $10 | 49¢ | 54¢ | +$1 |
 Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $150B by December 31?Tech | Yes | $35 | 34¢ | 10¢ | -$25 |
 Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?Politics | Yes | $63 | 62¢ | 8.8¢ | -$54 |
| Will Z.ai be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $17 | 1.9¢ | 1.0¢ | -$8 |
| Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics | Yes | $12 | 3.5¢ | 2.4¢ | -$4 |
 Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between -0.9% and -0.5%?Politics | No | $8 | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
 Will Giuseppe Conte be the next Prime Minister of Italy?Politics | Yes | $2 | 4.4¢ | 14¢ | +$5 |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $4 | 3.0¢ | 4.5¢ | +$2 |
 Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Politics | Yes | $4 | 0.2¢ | 0.4¢ | +$3 |
 Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.75% and 4.49%?Economy | Yes | $8 | 5.8¢ | 4.8¢ | -$1 |
 Will Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez be arrested in 2026?Politics | Yes | $2 | 9.0¢ | 26¢ | +$4 |
 Will ArrowCS eat a bug on stream by December 31?eSports | Yes | $7 | 12¢ | 9.8¢ | -$1 |
| Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $5 | 3.0¢ | 3.5¢ | +$1 |
 Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $15 | 3.0¢ | 1.1¢ | -$9 |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $4 | 4.0¢ | 5.0¢ | +$1 |
 Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?Politics | No | $2 | 10.0¢ | 27¢ | +$3 |
| Will voters pick the Winchester Model 1894 (.30-30) as the state gun of Idaho?Politics | Yes | $8 | 12¢ | 7.5¢ | -$3 |
 Alexandra Leclerc pregnant in 2026?Culture | No | $5 | 2.3¢ | 2.4¢ | +$0 |
 Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Soccer (other) | Yes | $10 | 0.4¢ | 0.2¢ | -$5 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Politics | Yes | $1 | 22¢ | 76¢ | +$3 |
| Will Z.ai be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $1 | 0.7¢ | 2.1¢ | +$3 |
| Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?Politics | Yes | $1 | 5.0¢ | 14¢ | +$2 |
 Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31?Culture | No | $6 | 57¢ | 36¢ | -$2 |
| Will Xiaomi be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 0.1¢ | 0.3¢ | +$1 |
 Will Björn Tenland Nurhadi be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Blekinge?Politics | Yes | $4 | 4.0¢ | 3.9¢ | -$0 |
| Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $20 | 14¢ | 2.2¢ | -$17 |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $10 | 1.6¢ | 0.5¢ | -$7 |
| Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $5 | 0.1¢ | 0.1¢ | -$3 |
| Will Z.ai have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $7 | 0.7¢ | 0.3¢ | -$4 |
| Will Republicans hold 50–52 Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Politics | Yes | $3 | 16¢ | 12¢ | -$1 |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $7 | 1.2¢ | 0.4¢ | -$5 |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech | Yes | $3 | 3.0¢ | 2.6¢ | -$0 |
 Will Sydney Sweeney be the #1 searched actor on Google this year?Tech | Yes | $2 | 0.7¢ | 0.8¢ | +$0 |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $2 | 4.7¢ | 5.5¢ | +$0 |
 Will voter turnout be between 76% and 78% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?Politics | Yes | $0 | 4.0¢ | 31¢ | +$2 |
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