 Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Politics | Yes | $62 | 31¢ | 28¢ | -$5 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics | Yes | $60 | 30¢ | 23¢ | -$15 |
 Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Tech | No | $41 | 81¢ | 85¢ | +$2 |
 Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026?Weather | No | $41 | 82¢ | 81¢ | -$1 |
 Will no one dissent the January Fed decision?Economy | No | $37 | 83¢ | 82¢ | -$1 |
 Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?Finance | No | $40 | 80¢ | 70¢ | -$5 |
 Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech | Yes | $38 | 84¢ | 70¢ | -$6 |
 Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the #2 song for 2026?Culture | No | $21 | 59¢ | 82¢ | +$8 |
 Will Euphoria be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?Tech | No | $29 | 73¢ | 63¢ | -$4 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics | No | $78 | 39¢ | 13¢ | -$53 |
 Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $22 | 56¢ | 55¢ | -$0 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $29 | 29¢ | 22¢ | -$8 |
 Will Lars Holmin be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västra Götaland?Politics | No | $16 | 80¢ | 99¢ | +$4 |
 Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on September 16?Weather | No | $14 | 60¢ | 86¢ | +$6 |
 Will Alex Cora be the next permanent manager of the Philadelphia Phillies?MLB | Yes | $24 | 40¢ | 33¢ | -$4 |
| Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026?Culture | No | $22 | 45¢ | 39¢ | -$3 |
 Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on September 14?Weather | No | $13 | 64¢ | 93¢ | +$6 |
 Will Celso Sabino win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pará Senate election?Politics | No | $17 | 84¢ | 92¢ | +$2 |
 Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election by 40%-45%?Politics | No | $17 | 84¢ | 90¢ | +$1 |
 Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?Politics | No | $13 | 67¢ | 89¢ | +$4 |
 Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 15?Weather | No | $12 | 62¢ | 89¢ | +$5 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-01 House election by 3%-6%?Politics | No | $17 | 85¢ | 88¢ | +$1 |
 Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election by 10%-15%?Politics | No | $17 | 87¢ | 87¢ | -$0 |
 Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $18 | 36¢ | 35¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NE-02 House election by 15%-20%?Politics | No | $17 | 86¢ | 86¢ | +$0 |
 Will SPD win 22-25 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Politics | No | $11 | 56¢ | 86¢ | +$6 |
 Will Wei Chia-hsien win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?Politics | No | $17 | 86¢ | 86¢ | -$0 |
 Will Marília Arraes win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?Politics | No | $18 | 84¢ | 81¢ | -$1 |
 Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?Politics | No | $17 | 87¢ | 85¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?Politics | No | $17 | 87¢ | 84¢ | -$0 |
 Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-03 House election by 40%-45%?Politics | No | $17 | 85¢ | 84¢ | -$0 |
 Will The Odyssey win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture | No | $17 | 86¢ | 84¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?Politics | No | $17 | 86¢ | 83¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 6%-9%?Politics | No | $17 | 87¢ | 83¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont Lieutenant Governor election?Politics | Yes | $17 | 83¢ | 83¢ | -$0 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KY-03 House election by 30%-35%?Politics | No | $17 | 83¢ | 82¢ | -$0 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?Politics | No | $17 | 86¢ | 82¢ | -$1 |
 Will Adailton Furia win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?Politics | No | $17 | 86¢ | 81¢ | -$1 |
| Will one person dissent the January Fed decision?Economy | No | $18 | 88¢ | 81¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 0%-3%?Politics | No | $16 | 82¢ | 81¢ | -$0 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 30%-35%?Politics | No | $17 | 83¢ | 81¢ | -$0 |
| Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?Politics | No | $23 | 45¢ | 32¢ | -$7 |
 Will Labor win the most seats in the next Victorian state election?Politics | No | $17 | 85¢ | 80¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho Senate election by 20%-25%?Politics | No | $17 | 86¢ | 80¢ | -$1 |
 Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Colorado Senate election by 20%-25%?Politics | No | $17 | 83¢ | 80¢ | -$1 |
 Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?Economy | No | $17 | 87¢ | 80¢ | -$2 |
 Will Emmanuel Bwacha win the 2027 Taraba State gubernatorial election?Politics | No | $17 | 85¢ | 79¢ | -$1 |
 Will Julia Hanna win the 2026 Oakville mayoral election?Politics | No | $17 | 85¢ | 78¢ | -$2 |
 Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in September?Economy | No | $17 | 85¢ | 78¢ | -$2 |
 Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Economy | No | $18 | 72¢ | 64¢ | -$2 |
 Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?Politics | No | $16 | 71¢ | 67¢ | -$1 |
 Will voter turnout be between 80% and 82% in the 2026 New Zealand general election?Politics | No | $17 | 87¢ | 76¢ | -$2 |
 Will Wu Tsung-hsien win the next Yilan County Magistrate election?Politics | No | $14 | 71¢ | 76¢ | +$1 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MA-09 House election by 30%-35%?Politics | No | $17 | 87¢ | 76¢ | -$2 |
 Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on September 15?Weather | No | $14 | 69¢ | 76¢ | +$1 |
 Will Reid Hamer-Jackson win the 2026 Kamloops mayoral election?Politics | No | $16 | 81¢ | 76¢ | -$1 |
 Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on September 16?Weather | No | $14 | 69¢ | 76¢ | +$1 |
| Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?Finance | No | $14 | 76¢ | 84¢ | +$1 |
 Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on September 30, 2026?Tech | Yes | $9 | 44¢ | 75¢ | +$6 |
 Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech | Yes | $15 | 77¢ | 75¢ | -$0 |
 Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?Politics | No | $16 | 78¢ | 75¢ | -$1 |
 Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026?Finance | No | $16 | 81¢ | 75¢ | -$1 |
 Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,169,000 and $1,185,000 on September 30?Economy | No | $17 | 85¢ | 74¢ | -$2 |
 Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?Economy | No | $16 | 78¢ | 74¢ | -$1 |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Tech | Yes | $18 | 36¢ | 30¢ | -$3 |
 Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother season 28?Culture | No | $15 | 76¢ | 74¢ | -$1 |
 Will Milan Majerský win the 2026 Prešov Region gubernatorial election?Politics | Yes | $16 | 78¢ | 74¢ | -$1 |
 Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Alabama in the 2026 midterm elections?Politics | No | $16 | 81¢ | 74¢ | -$2 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-08 House election by 30%-35%?Politics | No | $16 | 80¢ | 73¢ | -$1 |
 Will Democrats win exactly 9 House seats in Michigan in the 2026 midterm elections?Politics | No | $14 | 75¢ | 77¢ | +$0 |
| Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of September 2026?Finance | No | $15 | 74¢ | 73¢ | -$0 |
 Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in September?Economy | No | $16 | 80¢ | 73¢ | -$2 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 OK-02 House election by 45%-50%?Politics | No | $16 | 81¢ | 73¢ | -$2 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-09 House election by 30%-35%?Politics | No | $17 | 83¢ | 72¢ | -$2 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-15 House election by 30%-35%?Politics | No | $17 | 84¢ | 72¢ | -$2 |
 Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?Politics | No | $15 | 73¢ | 72¢ | -$0 |
 Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech | No | $14 | 69¢ | 72¢ | +$1 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-20 House election by 30%-35%?Politics | No | $16 | 80¢ | 72¢ | -$2 |
 Will the Republicans win Washoe County in the Nevada governor race in 2026?Politics | No | $15 | 73¢ | 72¢ | -$0 |
| Will AI solve 1 more Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?Tech | Yes | $15 | 31¢ | 28¢ | -$1 |
| Will SPD win 26-29 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Politics | No | $20 | 80¢ | 56¢ | -$6 |
 Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?Economy | No | $17 | 84¢ | 71¢ | -$3 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-06 House election by 20%-25%?Politics | No | $17 | 83¢ | 71¢ | -$3 |
 Will Mendonça Filho win the second-most votes in the 2026 Pernambuco Senate election?Politics | No | $15 | 73¢ | 71¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 VA-04 House election by 45% or more?Politics | No | $17 | 87¢ | 71¢ | -$3 |
 Will Felipe Fernando Macías Olvera win the 2027 Querétaro Governor Election?Politics | No | $15 | 73¢ | 70¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Tech | Yes | $21 | 41¢ | 28¢ | -$7 |
 Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?Weather | Yes | $16 | 32¢ | 28¢ | -$2 |
 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics | Yes | $15 | 15¢ | 14¢ | -$2 |
 Will Alisa Simmons win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?Politics | No | $14 | 70¢ | 67¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NE-02 House election by 10%-15%?Politics | No | $13 | 84¢ | 83¢ | -$0 |
 Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 15?Weather | No | $12 | 62¢ | 66¢ | +$1 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on September 14?Weather | No | $13 | 63¢ | 66¢ | +$1 |
 Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?Economy | No | $15 | 71¢ | 63¢ | -$2 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-05 House election by 25%-30%?Politics | No | $16 | 81¢ | 65¢ | -$3 |
 Will Alan Rick win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election?Politics | Yes | $9 | 43¢ | 65¢ | +$4 |
 Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30?Economy | No | $8 | 39¢ | 65¢ | +$5 |
 Will there be 0 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?Weather | No | $15 | 75¢ | 65¢ | -$2 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-11 House election by 25%-30%?Politics | No | $16 | 81¢ | 64¢ | -$3 |
| Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-02 House election by 20%-25%?Politics | No | $17 | 86¢ | 64¢ | -$4 |
Bought No · Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Louisiana be between 1,500,000 and 1,600,000?$151m ago
Bought No · Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on September 16?$311m ago
Bought Yes · Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?$215m ago
Bought Yes · Will AI solve the odd perfect number problem in 2026?$445m ago
Cashed out No · Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 14?$346m ago
Sold Yes · Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?$4750m ago