 Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $149 | 89¢ | 86¢ | -$4 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Politics | Yes | $144 | 72¢ | 73¢ | +$1 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Politics | No | $106 | 27¢ | 28¢ | +$4 |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Politics | Yes | $84 | 52¢ | 53¢ | +$2 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Politics | No | $98 | 49¢ | 40¢ | -$19 |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Politics | No | $78 | 48¢ | 47¢ | -$2 |
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Politics | Yes | $82 | 41¢ | 31¢ | -$21 |
 Will "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?Culture | No | $46 | 93¢ | 96¢ | +$2 |
 Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the July meeting?Economy | No | $44 | 89¢ | 91¢ | +$1 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?Tech | Yes | $45 | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$0 |
 Will Drew Campbell win Big Brother season 28?Culture | No | $46 | 92¢ | 89¢ | -$1 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Politics | No | $57 | 65¢ | 51¢ | -$13 |
 Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?Culture | No | $37 | 82¢ | 98¢ | +$7 |
 Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?Politics | Yes | $62 | 62¢ | 43¢ | -$19 |
 Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Tech | No | $43 | 85¢ | 84¢ | -$1 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?Tech | No | $40 | 80¢ | 83¢ | +$1 |
 Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Politics | No | $44 | 82¢ | 77¢ | -$3 |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?Tech | No | $40 | 80¢ | 78¢ | -$1 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $39 | 91¢ | 87¢ | -$2 |
 Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $38 | 75¢ | 73¢ | -$1 |
 US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Politics | Yes | $40 | 79¢ | 73¢ | -$3 |
| Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% or less in June?Economy | Yes | $38 | 75¢ | 72¢ | -$2 |
| Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be between 30k and 40k?Culture | No | $35 | 69¢ | 71¢ | +$1 |
 Will PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?Politics | No | $34 | 67¢ | 69¢ | +$1 |
 Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Economy | No | $38 | 84¢ | 78¢ | -$3 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Tech | Yes | $44 | 88¢ | 67¢ | -$11 |
 Will "72 Hours" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Culture | No | $31 | 92¢ | 97¢ | +$2 |
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?Economy | No | $31 | 65¢ | 69¢ | +$2 |
| Will PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?Politics | Yes | $33 | 33¢ | 31¢ | -$3 |
 Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?Mentions | No | $32 | 83¢ | 74¢ | -$4 |
 Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $28 | 84¢ | 86¢ | +$1 |
| Will Trump post "China" on Truth Social this week?Mentions | Yes | $26 | 85¢ | 87¢ | +$1 |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?Tech | No | $26 | 94¢ | 93¢ | -$0 |
 Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?Economy | No | $27 | 53¢ | 52¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on July 31, 2026?Tech | No | $32 | 76¢ | 60¢ | -$7 |
 Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?Politics | Yes | $23 | 66¢ | 71¢ | +$2 |
| Will Claude go down 12+ times in July?Tech | No | $25 | 86¢ | 83¢ | -$1 |
 Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Economy | Yes | $27 | 86¢ | 77¢ | -$3 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech | Yes | $27 | 54¢ | 46¢ | -$4 |
 Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Finance | Yes | $23 | 46¢ | 45¢ | -$1 |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $25 | 49¢ | 44¢ | -$3 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?Politics | No | $22 | 64¢ | 64¢ | +$0 |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Politics | Yes | $19 | 19¢ | 21¢ | +$2 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech | Yes | $25 | 49¢ | 41¢ | -$4 |
| Will “The Traitors” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series?Culture | No | $20 | 40¢ | 39¢ | -$0 |
| Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?Economy | Yes | $22 | 43¢ | 37¢ | -$3 |
| Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026?Culture | Yes | $18 | 37¢ | 36¢ | -$0 |
 Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Politics | Yes | $24 | 8.0¢ | 6.0¢ | -$6 |
 Will Ralph Norman win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Politics | No | $18 | 88¢ | 90¢ | +$0 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on July 31, 2026?Tech | No | $23 | 58¢ | 45¢ | -$5 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 1, 2026?Politics | No | $18 | 91¢ | 89¢ | -$0 |
 Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?Politics | No | $15 | 73¢ | 89¢ | +$3 |
| Will Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?Other | Yes | $4 | 12¢ | 54¢ | +$14 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 10, 2026?Politics | No | $19 | 94¢ | 87¢ | -$2 |
| Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of August 8?Culture | Yes | $10 | 52¢ | 91¢ | +$7 |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?Politics | Yes | $18 | 35¢ | 34¢ | -$1 |
 Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30?Politics | Yes | $26 | 52¢ | 34¢ | -$9 |
 Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?Politics | No | $17 | 33¢ | 33¢ | +$0 |
 Will Gary Cordery win the 2026 Hawaii Governor Republican primary election?Politics | Yes | $16 | 79¢ | 81¢ | +$1 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 28, 2026?Politics | No | $18 | 91¢ | 81¢ | -$2 |
| Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Mentions | Yes | $23 | 75¢ | 54¢ | -$6 |
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?Politics | No | $22 | 44¢ | 32¢ | -$6 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 29, 2026?Politics | No | $18 | 89¢ | 80¢ | -$2 |
 Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $18 | 88¢ | 79¢ | -$2 |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $16 | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$0 |
 Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech | No | $16 | 82¢ | 76¢ | -$1 |
| Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?Tech | No | $15 | 76¢ | 74¢ | -$1 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?Tech | No | $15 | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$0 |
| Will Van Hilleary be the TN-06 Republican nominee?Politics | No | $15 | 75¢ | 73¢ | -$1 |
| Will Joe Strada be the FL-11 Republican nominee?Politics | Yes | $15 | 59¢ | 56¢ | -$1 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Tech | Yes | $15 | 77¢ | 71¢ | -$1 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?Politics | No | $14 | 94¢ | 93¢ | -$0 |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?Politics | No | $10 | 20¢ | 28¢ | +$4 |
 Will William Azaroff win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?Politics | Yes | $18 | 35¢ | 27¢ | -$4 |
 Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?Tech | Yes | $14 | 28¢ | 26¢ | -$1 |
| Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?Mentions | No | $13 | 49¢ | 49¢ | +$0 |
| Will Trump say "Stupid Question" this week?Mentions | No | $12 | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$0 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Tech | No | $11 | 22¢ | 25¢ | +$1 |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 9, 2026?Politics | No | $19 | 93¢ | 60¢ | -$7 |
 Will Russia capture Bilytske by August 31, 2026?Politics | Yes | $14 | 29¢ | 25¢ | -$2 |
| Mastercard (MA) Q2 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5%-9.5%?Finance | No | $12 | 88¢ | 83¢ | -$1 |
 Will Bola Oyebamiji win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?Politics | No | $15 | 75¢ | 57¢ | -$4 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?Tech | No | $15 | 30¢ | 23¢ | -$4 |
 Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?Tech | No | $12 | 24¢ | 21¢ | -$2 |
 Will gas hit $4.25 (High) by July 31?Politics | Yes | $25 | 25¢ | 11¢ | -$15 |
 US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?Politics | Yes | $11 | 21¢ | 21¢ | +$0 |
 Will The Batman: Part II be delayed?Other | No | $8 | 71¢ | 91¢ | +$2 |
| Mastercard (MA) Q2 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5%-7.5%?Finance | No | $14 | 68¢ | 51¢ | -$4 |
| Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $330,000 and $335,000 on September 30?Economy | Yes | $10 | 21¢ | 20¢ | -$0 |
 China ballistic missile launch by December 31?Politics | Yes | $10 | 20¢ | 20¢ | -$0 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?Politics | No | $10 | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$0 |
| Will Trump say "Spain" this week?Mentions | No | $9 | 90¢ | 96¢ | +$1 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech | Yes | $11 | 21¢ | 19¢ | -$1 |
 Will Rick Devens win Big Brother season 28?Culture | No | $10 | 89¢ | 85¢ | -$0 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.00 and $3.50 on December 31, 2026?Tech | Yes | $10 | 34¢ | 31¢ | -$1 |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on July 31, 2026?Tech | No | $23 | 57¢ | 22¢ | -$14 |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Politics | Yes | $11 | 21¢ | 18¢ | -$2 |
 US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?Politics | Yes | $12 | 22¢ | 17¢ | -$3 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?Tech | Yes | $11 | 22¢ | 18¢ | -$2 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?Politics | Yes | $12 | 23¢ | 17¢ | -$3 |
Sold No · Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?$159m ago
Sold No · US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?$451h ago
Sold No · Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?$421h ago
Bought Yes · Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #2 US song this week?$11h ago